Velocity & Pitch Mix Changes (April 1 & 2)
Today finishes my examination of starting pitcher pitch mix and velocity from the first two days of the month. Some of the starters overlap from my first article and I used their combined numbers.
My goal in examining these starters is to find ones who have changed over the offseason. As owners, we may need to immediately adjust our projections. Also, to save space, when I mention a pitch changes a certain percentage, I mean percentage points (ex. up 10% = up 10% points or from 12% to 22%).
April 1st
April 1st Starters
| Name | Previous | 2019 | Diff | Pitch Usage Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Pomeranz | 89.3 | 92.1 | 2.8 | None |
| David Hess | 91.9 | 94.0 | 2.1 | None |
| Julio Urias | 93.1 | 95.1 | 2.0 | Fastball down 21%, curve up 12%, slider up also |
| Mike Clevinger | 93.6 | 94.9 | 1.3 | None |
| Chad Bettis | 90.5 | 91.7 | 1.2 | Fastball down 11%, change up 14% |
| Drew Smyly | 90.2 | 91.4 | 1.2 | Dropped change (prev 5% usage) |
| Aaron Brooks | 91.5 | 92.6 | 1.1 | Slider up 16%, change down |
| Felix Hernandez | 89.3 | 90.1 | 0.8 | None |
| Caleb Smith | 92.8 | 93.0 | 0.2 | None |
| Domingo German | 94.7 | 94.5 | -0.2 | Fastball up 10%, change down |
| David Price | 92.7 | 92.5 | -0.2 | Dropped cutter by 17%, change up 11% |
| Sean Newcomb | 93.0 | 92.5 | -0.5 | Fastball up to 77%, from change and curve |
| Kyle Hendricks | 86.9 | 86.2 | -0.7 | None |
| Steven Matz | 93.4 | 92.5 | -0.9 | Change up 12% from sinker and almost dropped slider |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 89.4 | 88.5 | -0.9 | Cutter down 16%, all to fastball |
| Sean Reid-Foley | 93.8 | 92.8 | -1.0 | Curve up 12% from 3 other pitches |
| Tanner Roark | 91.5 | 90.4 | -1.1 | Slider up 16%, curve and change down |
| Chris Stratton | 91.1 | 90.0 | -1.1 | None |
| Adam Wainwright | 89.3 | 88.0 | -1.3 | None |
| Tyson Ross | 91.1 | 89.8 | -1.3 | Slider down 19%, fastball and cutter gained |
| Brad Peacock | 92.7 | 91.3 | -1.4 | None |
| Zach Davies | 89.9 | 88.0 | -1.9 | Curve down 12%, change up 19% |
| Ivan Nova | 92.9 | 90.9 | -2.0 | Added slider (11%), took from curve. |
| Chris Archer | 94.7 | 92.4 | -2.3 | None |
| Matt Strahm | 93.5 | 90.9 | -2.6 | Slider up 15%, fastball, curve, & change down |
| Merrill Kelly | – | 91.5 | Fastball, curve, change, cutter |
Notes:
- Bettis has two decent breaking balls but his fastball is beyond horrible. He needs to find a fastball which does anything (ex. generate flyballs or miss some bats).
- Yarbrough continues to throw a sinker which doesn’t sink and an ineffective curve. As long as he keeps his current mix, he’ll remain borderline rosterable.
- Reid-Foley continues to throw the kitchen sink. I think some combination will eventually make him an effective starter, just not now.
- Roark went heavy slider but only found the strike zone 33% of the time for a 6.2 BB/9.
- Ross is getting labeled with a cutter and fastball but the pair blurs together.
- Nova needs to throw his fastball 50% of the time max. It’s not good enough otherwise.
- Strahm’s fastball velocity took pounding going from the bullpen to the rotation. Here are its results at differing speeds. pERA is an ERA estimator based just on the pitch’s swinging strike rate and groundball rate with a longer explanation here.
Results on Matt Strahm’s Fastball at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 4.09 | 20% | 8.7% | 69 |
| 92 | 4.29 | 35% | 8.9% | 168 |
| 93 | 3.94 | 20% | 9.3% | 214 |
| 94 | 2.93 | 19% | 13.6% | 338 |
| 95 | 2.99 | 29% | 14.2% | 162 |
- Chris Archer is another pitcher with a slower fastball and its results really fall off under 93 mph.
Results on Chris Archer’s Fastball at Different Velocities
| mph | pERA | GB% | SwStr% | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 5.56 | 40% | 3.4% | 88 |
| 93 | 5.50 | 29% | 3.8% | 235 |
| 94 | 5.08 | 36% | 5.7% | 615 |
| 95 | 4.88 | 40% | 6.3% | 672 |
| 96 | 4.54 | 31% | 7.9% | 783 |
| 97 | 3.23 | 48% | 12.3% | 333 |
April 2nd
April 2nd Starters
| Name | Previous | 2019 | Diff | Pitch Usage Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | 92.4 | 93.4 | 1.0 | Fastball down 15% with slider and change |
| Max Scherzer | 94.4 | 94.8 | 0.4 | None |
| Marcus Stroman | 92.4 | 92.8 | 0.4 | Curve and slider now grouped together |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 90.2 | 90.6 | 0.4 | None |
| Madison Bumgarner | 90.9 | 91.0 | 0.1 | None |
| Kyle Freeland | 91.6 | 91.6 | 0.0 | None |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 93.6 | 93.6 | 0.0 | Curve up 14% from slider, dropped change |
| Brad Keller | 93.9 | 93.6 | -0.3 | Slider up 10%, fastball and change down |
| Zack Greinke | 89.6 | 89.2 | -0.4 | None |
| Jose Berrios | 93.2 | 92.8 | -0.4 | Sinker down to curve & change |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 91.2 | 90.8 | -0.4 | None |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 91.7 | 91.3 | -0.4 | None |
| Blake Snell | 95.8 | 95.3 | -0.5 | Fastball down 14%, curveball up |
| Mike Fiers | 89.4 | 88.9 | -0.5 | None |
| Juoulys Chacin | 90.1 | 89.6 | -0.5 | None |
| Justin Verlander | 95.1 | 94.5 | -0.6 | Fastball down 12%, spread to slider, curve, & change |
| Trevor Cahill | 91.8 | 91.0 | -0.8 | None |
| Eric Lauer | 91.2 | 90.4 | -0.8 | None |
| Shelby Miller | 94.5 | 93.6 | -0.9 | Fastball up 12%, curve down |
| Jose Urena | 95.8 | 94.5 | -1.3 | Slider up to 13%, change down |
| Zach Eflin | 94.3 | 92.6 | -1.7 | Slider up 14%, change and fastball down |
| Marco Gonzales | 90.1 | 88.3 | -1.8 | None |
| Jason Vargas | 86.4 | 84.0 | -2.4 | None |
| Chris Sale | 94.7 | 90.9 | -3.8 | Fastball down14%, all to change |
Notes:
- I’m not buying Gonzales’s underlying skill set, especially with the velocity drop. I cut him in Tout Wars where I was dealing with a roster crunch.
- I started Vargas in a few leagues at Miami. At 84 mph, that is likely the last game I use him.
- Cashner’s adjustments may make him a mixed league option.
- Previously, I’ve examined Sales fastball results at lower velos. It could be worse.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Surprised by the blurb on Yarbrough. If your league uses wins as a category it is hard not to like him. Obviously you can’t expect last years performance, but how can you not like inherited wins?