Velocity Decliners From the Season’s Start

Here are a few starters who have seen their velocity drop during the 2017 season and my thoughts on each (full list).

 

Gio Gonzalez (-0.9 mph on 4-seam, -1.9 mph on 2-seam)

Of the pitchers I am examining today, Gonzalez is the toughest to get a read on. Besides a reasonable strikeout rate (8.3 K/9), his sub-3 ERA is the only trait he has going for him. His walk rate (4.3 BB/9) is his highest since 2009. He doesn’t have a good groundball rate and his home runs are up (with the rest of the league).

The velocity drop hasn’t affected his strikeouts since they’ve increased each month (7.0 to 8.7 to 10.5 K/9) while his walks and home runs have been respectable except in May (6.2 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9). The only change in his pitch mix was a small 2-seam usage increase in May which has dropped back down.

If a person needs a narrative on the season, I’d go with following. The 31-year-old lefty probably had a small unreported injury in May which cost him some control and velocity. Even though he’s still throwing slower, he’s learned to be productive with the discomfort. How’s that?

 

Joe Biagini (-2 mph since starting)

Biagini’s been a popular pitcher with his surprising effectiveness as a starter. I wrote about my concern for him keeping up his improved results and a handful of readers took exception.

The results so far are fine but the continued velocity drop worries me. The decline is reminiscent of Danny Duffy’s drop last season when Duffy transitioned from reliever to starter. Duffy’s velocity never stopped declining last year and we don’t know when Biagini’s will stabilize either.

Biagini’s fastball has seen its swinging strike rate drop hand-in-hand with his velocity.

Right now, Biagini is trying to find out where his talent will stabilize and his owners are just along for the ride.

 

Scott Feldman (-2.8 mph on sinker)

Normally Feldman shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar but with the barren pitching landscape, he is a healthy arm. In April, he posted a 3.25 ERA and 7.8 K/9. Since then, his K/9 has dropped each month (7.2 K/9 in May and 6.1 K/9 in June).

Feldman results lineup with his pitch mix. He started the season throwing his cutter more (9% SwStr%) but has moved to his sinker (4% SwStr%). I’m not sure why but I would not be surprised if he had an injury and it hurts more to throw the cutter.

After a good April, Feldman is back to being fantasy irrelevant except in the deepest of leagues.

 

Mike Foltynewicz (-1.4 mph on 4-seam)

There is so much going wrong with Foltynewicz, I’m not sure where to start. He’s been one of the hardest throwers in the game but has never been effective.

For such a hard thrower, he gets a disappointing number of strikeouts (7.8 K/9 in career), a reasonable number of walks (2.8 BB/9) but gives up an insane number of home runs (1.5 HR/9). Of the pitchers with 250 IP since 2014, Folty’s HR/9 is the 7th highest. Straight, hard fastballs get hit far. Over those same four seasons, his 4.66 FIP is comparable to Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, James Shields, and Kyle Lohse.

With an ineffective fastball, all of his breaking pitches get below average results besides his change (18% SwStr%). His problem is that he throws the change less than 10% of the time. And now his fastball is getting slower.

I think his future is in the bullpen. I just don’t see him being effective as a starter with a slower fastball. He might just be best off to “grip-it and rip-it” in short outings.