Validating Low Hitter HR/FB Rates With Batted Ball Distance

Last week, I identified five hitters whose batted ball distance suggested better HR/FB rate days may be ahead and another five hitters who may be in for a sudden HR/FB rate decline. That’s one way to use a hitter’s average home run and fly ball distance — as a predictive metric to speculate on improvers and regressers moving forward. The other use is to validate as a backwards looking tool. Player X’s HR/FB rate has declined, has his batted ball distance plummeted as well? The batter is seemingly at greater risk of maintaining that decreased HR/FB rate if it came with a similar trend in his distance. Of course, he may improve the distance, in which case the HR/FB rate would rebound. But we still want to see the two match up.

Low HR/FB Rate Validations

Name	HR/FB	Distance	Distance Rank (out of 252)
Jason Heyward	3.1%	244.9	247
Prince Fielder	4.8%	259.4	229
Justin Turner	6.0%	264.6	217
Chase Headley	6.1%	258.1	230
Kole Calhoun	6.5%	264.8	216
Brian Dozier	7.0%	269.8	205
C.J. Cron	7.0%	265.9	213

Jason Heyward’s batted ball distance hasn’t jumped above the league average since 2013. For a man of his size at the ripe age of 26, that’s quite disappointing. By now, I think many of us expected him to post consistent 20+ homer seasons and perhaps sneak in a 30+ here and there. This year, his batted ball distance has taken a nose dive and has reached a level that I cannot describe in any other way aside from pathetic. Only five hitters in all of baseball have averaged less distance with their fly balls and homers, if they hit any. Most everything else has been normal, with a bunch of extra pop-ups being the only real major concern. His power has simply evaporated. There has been no whispers of injury and he hurt himself crashing into the wall the other day, but that obviously had no impact on his play up until then. Such a complete lack of power makes me hesitant to recommend buying low, though he certainly has the upside to be a tempting target if the cost is cheap enough.

Who would have guessed that after 43 games, Prince Fielder would have all of two home runs? He performed almost identically during his injury shortened 2014 season, but he clearly had an excuse. He swatted 23 long balls last year, so he was obviously healthy, though not nearly as powerful as peak Fielder had been. His current distance mark is 20 feet below what he posted last year, with guys like Adeiny Hechavarria and Alcides Escobar sitting directly above him in distance. That’s not the company you want to have when looking at a power metric! Unlike Heyward, there are several red flags in Fielder’s profile, including a career high SwStk% and another drop in walk rate to a career low. He’s only 32, so you wouldn’t thing this would be the end. His lack of power is rather baffling.

Why include Justin Turner here? Because in his two seasons with the Dodgers, he enjoyed a little power breakout, with HR/FB rates that surged into the double digits, supported by slightly better than league average distance marks. We wondered if it was a fluke or not and now nearly two months in, his distance is down 20 feet and HR/FB rate back down to his pre-Dodgers days. If you recall, Turner had a microfracture procedure on his left knee in October, so perhaps that provides the explanation for the significant decline in power. It would make perfect sense, as a healthy knee is a vital component in generating power. It also means it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll regain that power this season or he’ll be a sleeper next year…if he still has a starting job.

Raise your hand if you too are still waiting for Chase Headley to do something, anything to prove that his 2012 power surge wasn’t a complete fluke. In Yankee Stadium especially, I keep thinking this is the year he returns to the 20 homers plateau. Instead, his ISO has declined every year since that crazy 2012. How did that season even happen?! Right now, he’s down 15 feet of distance versus last year and ensuring there’s literally no one left holding out hope another solid power season is in his future.

Since I’m not an owner, I kind of had no idea that Kole Calhoun has just three homers and his HR/FB rate has been cut by more than half. Every other part of his game is right in line with his history, he just simply hasn’t been hitting it as far as normal. His distance is down 19 feet from last year, as he has hovered around the league average since 2013. Given his age, I would guess this is just a slow start, but I’d always prefer to buy low on a guy with a low BABIP rather than missing power.

Brian Dozier has been able to hit more than 20 homers two years in a row thanks to a 40%+ fly ball rate combined with a major pull tendency on those fly balls. That hasn’t changed this year. What has changed is the distance in which he’s hitting those fly balls. Like Calhoun, he has hovered around the league average over the previous three seasons, which matches with around league average HR/FB rates. He’s down about 15 feet this year, and when he’s not hitting home runs, his typically weak batting average becomes outright disgusting. As a fly ball hitter with a pop-up problem that pulls everything, he’s never going to enjoy a league average BABIP without a huge helping of good fortune, which he has yet to receive. Since he does also contribute some speed, I’d cautiously consider buying here.

C.J. Cron’s only real redeeming quality has been his power and he hasn’t showed any of that this year. Although his strikeout rate is down, he’s still swinging and missing as often as always. So it’s not apparent that he has consciously decided to cut down on his swing to make more contact at the expense of power. Cron’s distance has actually declined a whopping 30 feet from last year, which wins for worst performance among those in this article. The Angels can only go so long with a first baseman that owns a .305 wOBA with limited power, meaning Cron’s job could be at risk soon. Of course, the team has no obvious alternatives, so maybe he has a bit of time to rediscover his power stroke.