Updating Auction Calculator’s Ottoneu Presets

The FanGraphs Auction Calculator is an incredibly useful tool, that can model auction prices based on your preferred inputs (league settings, budgets, etc.) and assumptions (projection system). Like any model, the outputs of the Auction Calculator (AC) are neither inherently good or bad, but a reflection of those inputs and assumptions. If you get them right, you can export a spreadsheet that can drive your auction strategy; get them wrong and things get ugly.

Ottoneu players haven’t always viewed the Auction Calculator as an effective tool, but mostly that comes down to the challenge of finding the right settings. Today, we have updated the preset settings for Ottoneu on the Auction Calculator, making it easier to use and more effective for Ottoneu leagues. The preset settings might look a little odd, but they all serve a purpose.

To start, if you visit the Auction Calculator, you’ll see the Ottoneu presets on the right side of the page on desktop or under the “Presets” tab on mobile. When you click one, you’ll see the settings change – roster sizes, lineup spots, scoring categories, etc. all update in the blink of an eye. All you have to do then is select your projection system and generate values.

But you will notice that the settings don’t actually match Ottoneu’s settings. If you click the FanGraphs Points preset, you’ll see the scoring categories you expect to see, but you’ll also see things like two catchers, 0.5 utility guys, and a $380 budget. I landed on these inputs basically through trial and error, but there is a logic behind each change that I made, and I want to explain that logic.

Before that, why did we change the presets at all? Why not use the base roster and budget settings, like we used to? It’s because using those simple inputs didn’t provide output values that match how Ottoneu players actually behave in auctions. For example, if you set the Auction Calculator to an exact match for Ottoneu rosters and budgets, with FanGraphs Points scoring, you get two SP over $60, another over $50, and two more over $40. In actual first year auctions, there are no pitchers over $60, two over $50 and only one more over $40. You get four bats over $70 vs. the two in actual auctions so far. You get negative values on low volume players who are useful in Ottoneu. You get only 146 bats (about 12 bats per team in a 12-team league) with values over $0, while any Ottoneu player knows it takes far more than 12 bats to fill your lineup all season.

So here are the changes we made:

• Updated the number of players in each lineup spot to reflect what it takes to actually fill a roster. Ottoneu lineups have 12 spots (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, OF x5, U) but if you use the Auction Calculator presets, you’ll now see anywhere from 16 (for 5×5 leagues) to 18.5 (for points leagues) starters. This reflects the reality that getting to 162 games played at each spot (a must for points league) requires you to carry – and value – two catchers, around five total middle infielders, eight outfielders, etc. We even added a corner infielder (you need some depth there to fill out 1B/3B) and reduced utility to 0.5 to reflect that most teams don’t have a true util-only bat, but use a backup corner infielder or a sixth outfielder in that spot.
• Added more starting and relief pitchers. The lineups show five SP and five RP slots. But you can’t get to 1500 innings pitched that way. Even if you hit the jackpot with 10 high-volume arms, that’s 1350 IP max, and probably less. In Points leagues, you want a deeper pen to maximize those high-value relief innings, which impacts reliever values. In all formats, you need at least 7-8 and maybe more like 10 starters.
• Varied lineup structure by scoring system. You’ll notice in the two bullet points above, I called out some differences between points and roto formats, in terms of lineup assumptions and need for relievers. In Points leagues, having the depth to get to 162 games played at every position and 1500+ innings pitched is a necessity. In roto, that isn’t as important, in large part because rate stats mean that playing bad players to fill out games can be counterproductive. Similarly, in 4×4, relievers aren’t quite as valuable or necessary. In 5×5, non-closers are risky – their results can be volatile and every inning they pitch is an inning where you can’t get a save. Plus, given the next-most-valuable relief arms after closers are set-up men, you are rarely going to get a shot at a win. That’s 40% of your scoring off the table.
• Reduced the bench to reflect the expanded lineups. You still want 40 total players, so if we are calling for more “starters,” the bench has to shrink accordingly.
• Reduced team budgets to $380. Yes, Ottoneu uses $400 budgets. But not all of that money is spent at auction. Some is held back for in-season pickups. In addition, the Auction Calculator is only going to assign value to production (stats guys are expected to put up this year) and some money is spent on non-productive players. That could include prospects that won’t be up or don’t project to be valuable yet; that could be injured players teams want to stash for the future; that could be players with negative projections for 2026 that teams are rostering for future breakout potential. Accounting for all of that, each team has less than $400 to spend on 2026 production.
• Set a hitter/pitcher split.These vary slightly by league, but Ottoneu teams spend more on bats than arms and we want to reflect that in the values.
• Turn on the “Experimental” checkbox. This is an important one. The Experimental setting takes a player’s projection and adds replacement level production to get the player to full playing time. It reflects the reality in daily leagues that a platoon guy or a guy with injury risk might be only projected for 120 games and 500 plate appearances, but you will replace them in the lineup on days they don’t play, rather than taking a zero. This is a crucial setting, especially in daily leagues, but even in weekly-lineup leagues this matters. Just keep in mind what it is doing. If you use it for weekly leagues, it will overvalue platoon players, because you can’t replace them on days they don’t start. But it will still accurately reflect the value of a player expected to miss a week here or there, because you can replace them those weeks.
• Set an appropriate value under “Artificially Decrease Relief Pitcher Value.”  The raw values spit out for relievers tend to be high and need to be decreased a bit to more accurately reflect the market. These numbers will look a little odd. We decrease relievers more in FanGraphs Points leagues than SABR leagues, but the same amount in FanGraphs Points and 4×4, and then not at all for 5×5. This is because reliever values vary by format, but are also impacted by the number of relievers we put into the RP lineup spot way back in second bullet point above. So while you might expect 4×4 relievers to be decreased more than FanGraphs Points relievers, we are also calling for fewer relievers in 4×4 leagues, and that impacts values, too.
• Set required games played at SP and RP to 1. Ottoneu is unique in that relievers and starters don’t have set eligibility, they just have to be used in the right spot on the right day. A theoretical starter who follows or comes out of the pen needs to be in a relief spot; a reliever who opens needs to be in a starting spot. So eligibility doesn’t really matter. One game reflects that.

With all of those settings, you get values that fairly accurately reflect the Ottoneu market. Use those settings and your preferred projection system, and you have a great starting point for auction values.

Those settings are what I use, but you can also tweak them. Think I am too low on relievers? Change the amount I decrease their value. Want to see what values would look like if we didn’t hold bats to 58% of the budget? Change (or delete) that setting. I would view all of these settings as a starting point to make tweaks and get yourself values that work for you.

One other thing – when I build my rankings and tiers for Ottoneu leagues, I use multiple Auction Calculator outputs to anchor my thinking. I look at different projection systems (use the same settings, but create values using OOPSY and values using ZiPS and values using ATC, etc.) and I look at the same projection system using different settings (how does OOPSY look if I change lineup assumptions? How does it look if I change how I treat relievers? etc.).

As established in the intro, a model is sensitive to inputs and assumptions. Getting a $30 value on a guy doesn’t tell you the player is a $30 player – it tells you he is a $30 player based on the settings you used and according the projection system you picked. By tweaking settings and changing projection systems, you may find that the $30 player is actually a $23, $37, $29, $34 or a $30 player. You also might find that $30 is his max value, and other systems or settings show him closer to $20. Having that range is really useful and tweaking Auction Calculator settings can help you find that range.