Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers

May 14, 2012

We’ve finally come to the end of this long dance, and it feels good. The hope all along was not to impose our belief system on anyone with these rankings, but to show what a projections-based ranking system would look like: sober and difficult to budge. After all, true talent changes much less often than results do.

As for the major disagreements, they seemed to surround a few issues.

1) The injured player. This is such a guesstimate. How long will Cory Luebke be out, for example? Even with players like Mike Morse that have a supposed time table, there are questions about his production when he returns. A projection-based system might ding him for the missed time, but it will have difficulty reducing production based on whatever injury the player has. Even a little subjectivity makes this difficult.

2) The oft-injured player. In these rankings, Josh Johnson might play the role of Josh Hamilton: the player whose rest-of-season 5×5 production would be more useful if it didn’t include likely missed time. For the most part, health looks like an age-related skill — some players get hurt more often, and past health is definitely factored into projections. A breakout player who plays three-quarters of the time gets a ding.

3) The breakout player. There are breakouts, they do exist. There are also crazy months. There are more of the latter than the former, and so our sobriety reflects a tiny bit of cynicism regarding breakouts. We aren’t straight-jacketed by our projections, either — each analyst has his own mix of subjectivity and projections, after all, and even the choice of projections is rooted in subjectivity, and every fantasy ranking list is subjective in some fashion — but when there’s little warning for a breakout, we’re more likely to be suspicious of it than perhaps anyone.

That said, pitchers might have the easiest path towards rapid improvement or decline. Pitchers have peripherals that are harbingers of both — velocity, swinging strike rate, change in pitching mix — and when a young (or new) pitcher like Yu Darvish or Brandon Beachy shows good news in those areas, we’re just as likely as anyone to move them.

So let’s take a look at the starters.

FanGraphs Consensus Rankings: Starting Pitchers
New	Last	Player Name	Eno Sarris	Mike Podhorzer	Jeff Zimmerman	Zach Sanders
1	1	Roy Halladay	1	1	2	2
2	3	Clayton Kershaw	2	3	1	1
3	2	Cliff Lee	3	2	3	4
4	4	Justin Verlander	4	4	4	3
5	5	Zack Greinke	8	6	5	6
6	6	Felix Hernandez	5	8	6	7
7	9	Cole Hamels	6	7	7	8
8	10	CC Sabathia	7	5	12	10
9	8	Jered Weaver	9	9	13	5
10	11	Dan Haren	10	10	9	15
11	12	James Shields	11	11	11	13
12	15	Stephen Strasburg	15	13	14	11
13	7	Tim Lincecum	14	12	8	19
14	13	David Price	12	15	17	12
15	16	Matt Cain	13	14	29	9
16	17	Yovani Gallardo	18	17	10	32
17	27	Yu Darvish	22	20	15	21
18	23	Brandon Beachy	19	23	16	24
19	14	Jon Lester	20	16	19	27
20	19	Adam Wainwright	16	18	32	20
21	21	Ian Kennedy	25	28	20	14
22	26	Matt Garza	21	22	22	22
23	30	C.J. Wilson	17	26	31	16
24	18	Mat Latos	26	19	18	34
25	20	Madison Bumgarner	24	24	26	26
26	33	Gio Gonzalez	23	38	25	18
27	24	Josh Johnson	28	27	33	17
28	36	Brandon Morrow	31	29	21	41
29	34	Tommy Hanson	30	36	28	39
30	37	Anibal Sanchez	29	35	30	43
31	32	Shaun Marcum	32	32	44	30
32	25	Daniel Hudson	27	44	24	47
33	38	Jordan Zimmerman	35	37	39	33
34	42	Colby Lewis	37	30	27	52
35	40	Jaime Garcia	34	31	51	35
36	39	Ricky Romero	33	52	43	28
37	31	Josh Beckett	48	25	36	48
38	49	Derek Holland	39	41	49	36
39	35	Max Scherzer	51	33	23	62
40	46	Wandy Rodriguez	38	53	41	38
41	NA	Matt Moore	36	21	59	61
42	55	Bud Norris	45	59	38	49
43	51	Johnny Cueto	44	51	64	37
44	44	Tim Hudson	41	49	78	31
45	52	Gavin Floyd	53	55	40	54
46	47	Jeremy Hellickson	43	47	75	42
47	61	Ryan Dempster	42	45	37	84
48	48	Doug Fister	61	67	56	25
49	53	Brandon McCarthy	40	70	60	40
50	NA	Jeff Samardzija	57	39	70	55
51	NA	Chris Sale	50	40	71	60
52	50	Ervin Santana	52	50	46	73
53	64	Vance Worley	47	83	65	29
54	71	Edwin Jackson	60	71	50	44
55	60	Mike Minor	56	54	58	57
56	77	Jake Peavy	77	42	61	46
57	43	Ted Lilly	55	34	47	91
58	58	Ricky Nolasco	54	61	35	78
59	66	Chad Billingsley	49	74	48	58
60	67	Jonathon Niese	59	58	52	71
61	57	John Danks	70	57	45	76
62	54	Hiroki Kuroda	71	48	57	75
63	87	A.J. Burnett	67	64	68	59
64	NA	Lance Lynn	62	75	73	80
65	62	Johan Santana	46	46	151	50
66	70	Chris Capuano	64	68	55	107
67	76	Homer Bailey	76	62	69	92
68	85	Erik Bedard	73	76	81	70
69	133	Jason Hammel	91	43	101	69
70	78	Ryan Vogelsong	65	106	86	53
71	63	Tim Stauffer	72	82	82	74
72	41	Ubaldo Jimenez	63	134	34	83
73	72	Mark Buehrle	88	73	99	56
74	NA	Neftali Feliz	83	79	72	85
75	NA	Daniel Bard	86	56	85	94
76	56	Justin Masterson	75	132	54	64
77	NA	Drew Smyly	69	85	96	77
78	65	R.A. Dickey	58	60	83	129
79	83	Felipe Paulino	93	69	66	108
80	80	Philip Humber	99	80	92	66
81	88	Matt Harrison	92	88	109	51
82	NA	Trevor Bauer	116	122	63	45
83	74	Juan Nicasio	89	72	98	93
84	99	James McDonald	101	96	77	87
85	96	Edinson Volquez	78	77	117	95
86	102	Jeff Niemann	79	66	93	131
87	NA	Anthony Bass	74	78	159	65
88	75	Trevor Cahill	98	87	88	105
89	68	Mike Leake	97	105	74	104
90	120	Dillon Gee	105	84	125	68
91	79	Tommy Milone	90	95	76	123
92	101	Carlos Zambrano	80	92	107	110
93	113	Bartolo Colon	112	91	122	67
94	111	Kyle Lohse	81	103	136	72
95	132	Wei-Yin Chen	84	115	105	88
96	94	Ivan Nova	103	113	115	63
97	155	Tyler Skaggs	144	117	62	79
98	122	Joe Blanton	107	101	113	82
99	89	Jason Vargas	95	136	94	81
100	84	Randy Wolf	94	102	91	126
101	28	Cory Luebke	176	174	42	23
102	97	Aaron Harang	121	108	90	98
103	138	Jake Arrieta	85	89	147	99
104	81	Henderson Alvarez	96	114	110	106
105	91	Phil Hughes	100	86	87	153
106	105	Roy Oswalt	123	112	79	127
107	90	Luke Hochevar	118	142	97	86
108	112	Danny Duffy	148	81	114	100
109	174	Marco Estrada	108	93	118	124
110	69	Clay Buchholz	111	135	108	90
111	115	Jarrod Parker	82	116	155	96
112	150	Brett Anderson	87	94	133	143
113	73	Francisco Liriano	114	133	67	145
114	109	Brett Myers	68	65	158	173
115	116	Bronson Arroyo	125	104	121	115
116	108	Travis Wood	134	124	89	121
117	140	Brad Peacock	141	162	53	119
118	159	Ross Detwiler	106	98	175	97
119	93	Josh Tomlin	120	130	104	128
120	29	Chris Carpenter	66	63	177	178
121	110	Derek Lowe	124	131	116	114
122	158	Jorge de la Rosa	136	121	111	117
123	98	Jonathan Sanchez	122	150	84	133
124	144	Randall Delgado	113	97	165	116
125	92	Carl Pavano	119	129	100	147
126	128	Julio Teheran	110	160	126	103
127	125	Clayton Richard	127	109	142	122
128	147	Joe Saunders	152	110	123	118
129	127	Paul Maholm	138	125	130	111
130	145	J.A. Happ	131	111	127	138
131	152	Jake Westbrook	115	137	156	101
132	NA	Hector Noesi	117	144	137	112
133	157	Jerome Williams	104	90	152	165
134	123	Chris Volstad	151	107	120	134
135	129	Jordan Lyles	128	119	132	136
136	59	Jhoulys Chacin	109	161	164	89
137	107	Rick Porcello	147	143	124	109
138	126	Randy Wells	137	123	131	135
139	164	Kevin Millwood	158	127	102	144
140	124	Hisashi Iwakuma	126	99	135	172
141	136	Barry Zito	130	140	153	113
142	117	Drew Pomeranz	149	118	146	132
143	137	Charlie Morton	139	126	145	137
144	134	Alexi Ogando	102	100	171	176
145	141	Blake Beavan	140	156	154	102
146	106	Jeremy Guthrie	162	152	112	130
147	119	Jeff Karstens	135	147	119	157
148	130	Brian Matusz	129	141	149	141
149	118	Bruce Chen	157	149	143	125
150	103	Brett Cecil	133	169	129	146
151	121	Javier Vazquez	150	179	80	169
152	82	Jair Jurrjens	132	163	134	154
153	149	Kevin Correia	143	138	141	161
154	156	Alex White	153	120	174	140
155	167	Kyle Drabek	145	128	172	142
156	163	Jason Marquis	146	154	168	120
157	146	Dallas Braden	142	148	140	158
158	100	Kevin Slowey	161	173	106	149
159	86	Josh Collmenter	160	170	103	156
160	169	Livan Hernandez	172	157	138	151
161	131	Wade Davis	167	153	128	171
162	151	Jacob Turner	155	164	163	139
163	95	Chris Narveson	180	176	95	170
164	165	Dustin McGowan	166	145	148	166
165	148	Dustin Moseley	154	139	160	174
166	114	Zach Britton	164	168	139	159
167	153	Nick Blackburn	156	151	161	162
168	143	Guillermo Moscoso	174	158	144	163
169	160	Chris Tillman	163	165	166	150
170	142	Chien-Ming Wang	169	155	167	155
171	135	John Lannan	168	171	162	148
172	166	Charlie Furbush	159	146	170	175
173	162	Nathan Eovaldi	165	166	169	152
174	161	Fausto Carmona	171	167	157	160
175	154	Freddy Garcia	170	172	150	164
176	168	Tyler Chatwood	173	159	173	167
177	104	Tsuyoshi Wada	179	178	179	168
178	22	Michael Pineda	177	175	176	177
179	45	Scott Baker	178	177	178	179
180	139	Mike Pelfrey	175	180	180	180

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG