Upcoming Matchups for Stolen Base Streamers

I covered matchups a couple of weeks ago and last week for a few players who run often and aren’t full-timers but aren’t purely pinch runners. For fantasy baseball players who could use help that would in fact make a difference in their standings in the related category in short time we have left, these possibilities are of interest. The return on this kind of investment is probably not great, as mentioned, but the forecasts can be pretty simple. Again, the greater challenge for a batter is to reach base, not to steal one.

First, there might be some players in your league’s free-agent pool who are more appealing than the streaming plays, however. (Ownership percentages are in parentheses.)

The Houston Astros have rolled out Jake Marisnick (CBS, 7%; Yahoo!, 1%; ESPN, 1.7%) pretty regularly in right field. Hope you followed Mike Podhorzer’s advice from a month and a half ago. Marisnick is 7-for-17 with a walk and three steals in four attempts in the past week. He’s pilfered 10 bases in 12 attempts this season in his 198 plate appearances between the ‘Stros and the Miami Marlins.

Rusney Castillo (CBS, 31%; Yahoo!, 0%; ESPN still hasn’t added him to its pool) went 1-for-4 on Wednesday night in his first major league contest in the States. Let’s presume that the Boston Red Sox’s well-compensated outfielder will play frequently for the rest of the regular season. Let’s then see how often he runs.

Again, for the streamer recs, I tried to determine which parts of the calendar appear to be most advantageous in terms of thefts and, to some degree, playing time. I just included all parts of the remaining schedule, including repeats from last week, this time instead of excluding them if I’d already covered the player’s upcoming weekend. Probable pitchers change so frequently at this time of year, so I shouldn’t have excluded them last time. Relevant statistics, in parentheses, are since the more recent post.

Oakland Athletics outfielder Craig Gentry has been dealing with a concussion and sinus problems and thus hasn’t been available for more than a week. Billy Burns swiped a base in that stretch, but he hasn’t netted a start and probably won’t do so for the rest of the season, so there’s no reliable SB play on the A’s unless Gentry recovers.

3B/OF Jimmy Paredes, Baltimore Orioles

(16 PA, 2 SBA, 2 SB) | BOS (3), @NYY (4), @TOR (3)

Chris Davis’ suspension has reopened the door. Paredes has a ton of speed and has hit since he joined B-more, which is likely to matter to the manager. The switch hitter has been splitting time with Kelly Johnson at third base. Just like it was at his previous two AL East stops this year, however, KJ hasn’t hit, so Paredes could take the regular’s share of PT at the hot corner. That’d be beneficial for Paredes beyond the obvious reason: He’s hit RHPs significantly better throughout his spotty career. I might have a contingent claim in for him in two mixed leagues.

It’s all RHPs for the BoSox this weekend, too. But Christian Vazquez is a deterrent for base-stealers. Joe Kelly, on Sunday, is the only distinguishable and advantageous matchup; he’s been victimized while with the St. Louis Cardinals, so Vazquez isn’t going to change things for him. The New York Yankees have been really tough on runners, but at least they’re slated to keep the RHP train going. Brandon McCarthy is the only verifiably vulnerable hurler there. Bonus, or much better to stream, if it’s Francisco Cerveli or John Ryan Murphy behind the plate, no matter the pitcher. The Toronto Blue Jays are, in general, a good matchup. Have no fears there, even though J.A. Happ is slightly less favorable.

OF Jarrod Dyson, Kansas City Royals

(12 PA, 1 SBA, 1 SB) | DET (3), @CLE (3), @CHW (4)

This isn’t the ideal stretch to close the regular season for a base-stealer. The Detroit Tigers starters’ slate has been shuffled. This weekend, Motown offers up three RHPs, but Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are tough. Justin Verlander is doable, though. The Cleveland Indians matchup is about as unattractive. More RHPs, at least. Trevor Bauer is the most susceptible hurler, probably, but Yan Gomes is the real preventive force for which to scan. The mood lightens in the final series, nonetheless, when KC visits the Chicago White Sox, except for when Chris Sale is on the hill in what projects to be the teams’ regular-season finale.

If you’ve been using Dyson for this purpose already, then you’re probably not going to sit him. Paredes appears to be more appealing for this final run, though, to me.

2B/3B/OF Emilio Bonifacio, Atlanta Braves

(10 PA, 2 SBA, 2 SB) | NYM (3), @PIT (4), PHI (3)

This worked out pretty well, if you employed Bonifacio for our stated purpose. The switch hitter came up with both of those stolen bases in the Bravos’ series at the Texas Rangers, one of them coming after he entered as a pinch runner. The next stretch may be a tad less inviting, but opportunities still exist.

Base-stealers don’t yet really fear Travis d’Arnaud, so he’s the preferred opposition. Jonathon Niese presents plenty of difficulty, however. That seems almost certain to be a game in which B.J. Upton starts, anyway. RHPs Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom are no slouches, it’s worth noting, though. You really don’t want to see Russell Martin’s name on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ lineup card if you want thefts, either. The Bucs should throw two LHPs, too, so there’ll be only two opportunities for Bonifacio to start in that series. If he does face one of those southpaws, then Francisco Liriano is likely by far the better matchup. Gerrit Cole hasn’t been great at controlling the running game in his limited time, but Edinson Volquez appears to be. Again, though, Martin may be the biggest factor here. As for the Philadelphia Phillies, assume that Upton will face Cole Hamels. Bonifacio looks good against either of the two RHPs the Phils should throw, but A.J. Burnett is the true mark.