The Daily Grind: 9-18-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Starter/Relievers
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

1. Starter/Relievers

Yesterday was Carlos Carrasco day, so it’s only fitting to talk about starter/reliever pitchers (Brett Talley provides the content). Carrasco is one of those few pitchers who seemingly figured it out in the pen. Talley looks at four conversion projects, including Carrasco. Yusmeiro Petit is a candidate for modest regression, but this is probably why the Giants have repeatedly refused to give him a permanent spot in the rotation despite perfectly fine performances. Alex Wood is another guy who crosses Talley’s radar.

The last guy is the one I want to point out, because I’m hopeful he’ll be a lesser force next season. Josh Tomlin has a 4.76 ERA and a 3.16 xFIP. If you prefer SIERA as the run estimator, it’s 3.27. Tomlin is extremely stingy with his walks in a way that reminds me of Brandon McCarthy. In speaking with McCarthy prior to the season, he commented that perhaps he throws too many strikes. One of the things he was working on was selectively throwing balls. Will Tomlin be a stud like McCarthy next season? Probably not. However, it’s never too early to identify breakout candidates. I’ll be keeping Tomlin for $3 in my ottoneu league.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Rangers and Athletics are playing in the afternoon.

Late: That leaves nine games for the main contest.

R.A. Dickey and Shane Greene should be watched if only for the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

Brandon Workman is an easy exploit choice with his all-around mediocrity. PNC Park is a factor in his favor, but the Pirates lineup is deceptively deep. They could give Workman fits.

The Nationals will face a mediocre southpaw – Brad Hand. The Nats hit lefties pretty well, which makes the start look very stackable. Unfortunately, Marlins Stadium could put a damper on any power displays.

I think everybody in fantasy land wants a piece of Vidal Nuno versus Yohan Flande at Coors Field. Rockies hitters can be a bit pricey, but the Diamondbacks are almost uniformly cheap. The starting pitchers are a combined 0-11 in the National League (Nuno won two games before the trade)

3. Friday Picks

Pitchers to Start: Jose Quintana is usually risky due to U.S. Cellular Field. Thankfully, he’ll face the Rays at Tropicana Field tomorrow. Even with his home stadium, he’s limited the quality of contact against him, including a 4.4 HR/FB ratio. I don’t know if he can maintain such a low ratio in the future, but I bet he’ll be fine in Tampa.

Dallas Keuchel is available in a few leagues, probably because his strikeout rate has dwindled. A game against the Mariners should be good for his numbers.

Pitchers to Exploit: Edwin Jackson will return to the rotation in time to be beaten by Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.

The nice thing I can say about Allen Webster is he has a 10.9 percent whiff rate. That’s very good. What’s not good are his 5.44 K/9 and 5.05 BB/9. He seems to have the stuff of a major leaguer, but not the sequencing.

The Cardinals will face David Holmberg, a pitch who has really struggled to adapt to the majors. In 18 innings, he’s walked 12 batters and allowed five home runs. The soft tossing lefty is a good bet to continue performing poorly.

We’ll see how Chase Anderson and Jordan Lyles fare at Coors Field. They’re both decent pitchers at sea level and Lyles had some early season success in Denver too.

Lisaverto Bonilla may be in over his head against the Angels. The right-hander had a solid first outing against an anemic Braves offense, but L.A. is something else entirely.

Hitters (power): Jhonny Peralta usually bats fifth. He’ll see Holmberg.

Mark Reynolds, Khris Davis, and Rickie Weeks are among the Brewers with a favorable matchup against Jeff Locke.

Adam Lind has the money matchup against a Hiroki Kuroda at Yankee Stadium. You’re targeting the park, not the pitcher.

Hitters (speed): Ender Inciarte is a pure steals pick. Didi Gregorius is another option.

Norichika Aoki is another mostly empty steals pick.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It should be a rain free evening.

The Link. It’s days like this where the factor grid really shines. You should know exactly where to go for offense and pitching.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.