Two Sleeper Prospects

It’s prospect week which means it’s time for RotoGraphs to jump in line with cross-promotional synergistical, uh… I lost my train of thought. Anyway, I’m going to write about two prospects.

Wait. Here’s an important note about me, the author, with regards to assessing minor league talent. My prospect exposure is not uniform. I have a very strong grasp of the Phillies system, in part because I grew up within walking distance* of the city, and in part because they may have the best prospect coverage (h/t to @Matt_Winkelman and friends). I also have a few MLB contacts – mainly scouts with whom I used to play – who will occasionally feed me breakout prospects before they’re publicly recognized as such. Mostly, I use google-able scouting reports and FanGraphs stats to analyze players. Ok, disclaimer proclaimed. Shall we?

*if one were willing to walk for say one and a half days

The Phillies Secret Top Prospect

I did mention I know the Phillies system. While the industry consensus states that Sixto Sanchez, J.P. Crawford, and Scott Kingery are top 50 prospects, only one venue placed 19-year-old Jhailyn Ortiz in their top 100. It’s not much of a surprise – low minors guys who don’t post insane numbers usually aren’t widely celebrated.

Of course, the system matters to some extent. Pull Sanchez, Crawford, Kingery, and Adonis Medina from the Phillies farm, and Ortiz might creep onto more top 100 lists. Despite lacking proof, I’m fairly confident good systems are underrepresented and bad systems are overrepresented in top 100 lists. Anyway, that’s a topic for another day and another writer.

Ortiz was a big bonus international signing who initially looked like a bust. When he reported for duty in 2016, he was a bad-bodied 16-year-old who lacked a defensive home and had lost much of what made him a shiny IFA target. Since that rude awakening, Ortiz has re-sculpted his body. Reports now indicate he’ll stick in an outfield corner and could even become an above average defender.

He also wins the intangibles award – Phillies staff rave about his work ethic and growing baseball acumen. While there remain questions about his hit tool, he has strong plate discipline. He should at least grow into something like Joey Gallo the Prospect. There was never any certainty that Gallo could transition to the majors, but he was still a well-regarded and highly rated minor leaguer. Reports on their intangibles – makeup, ability to adjustment, and work ethic – are comparable.

Ortiz is expected to begin the season in Lakewood. It’ll be his first exposure to full season ball. The league and his home park should prove to be very challenging for a high whiff power hitter – don’t be discouraged if he takes a while to adjust or wears down mid-summer. Buy low opportunities may abound.

He’s best targeted in deep dynasty formats. There’s no chance he sniffs the majors in the next two seasons. He’s probably at least four years away. He could be a consensus top 50 prospect by this time next season.

The Marlins Are Terrible

Terrible teams create fantastic opportunities. Braxton Lee isn’t a top prospect by anyone’s measure. He has is a wide open opportunity shared with actual touted prospects Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra. Only Derek Dietrich and Martin Prado stand in the way of the three of them starting. Those aren’t high hurdles to leap.

Lee brings a classic slappy speedster approach to the plate to go with what should be well above average corner outfield defense. He won’t hit many (any?) home runs, but he does have the plate discipline and contact skills necessary to fill a top-of-the-lineup role.

He’s an opposite field ground ball hitter, a rare profile in the majors. DJ LeMahieu is the most successful example. Joe Mauer, Odubel Herrera, and Adam Frazier also typically lean that way. None of those guys are nearly as extreme as Lee. Throughout his minor league career, nearly half of his contact went to the left side. Successful oppo-field hitters tend to post high BABIPs. Unsuccessful ones find they’re hopelessly overmatched by major league velocity. We’re likely to discover which is true for Lee this year.

Lee was one of the top performing hitters in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a viable last-round flier in anything with 12 teams and five outfielders or deeper (also NL Only). Preferably deeper. Don’t be surprised if he struggles to adjust to major league pitching. Deep dynasty owners should prepare to be patient or even buy low. Shallow keeper and redraft owners are merely looking for a flash in the pan and some cheap steals off the bench.