Early 2018 Hitter Blind Résumés, Pt. 3

The third in an ongoing series (Pt. 1) (Pt. 2), I’ll continue to compare hitters using blind résumés to highlight “generic-brand” players who could be drafted as substitutes for “name-brand” players in later rounds of your draft. This entry will differ slightly in substance; I’ll focus on 2018 projections to identify similarly skilled players rather than use hindsight to rationalize (or poke holes in) how we’ve valued past performance.

I will use National Fantasy Baseball Championship average draft position (NFBC ADP). Reminder: we host them here on FanGraphs, too. It’s worth noting I pulled these projections this past weekend, so the numbers will likely differ slightly but not unconscionably. The ADPs are current as of yesterday.

Comparison #1: Power-Speed Outfielders, Mostly

Behold, a group of hitters with certifiable above-average power and speed — but also fringy plate discipline/batting average tools. Given their playing time projections (allocated by FanGraphs staff), their offensive profiles are mostly indistinguishable: #51 projects for the most power; #184, the most speed; #202, the least of both, but not so much so that you’ll completely dismiss him. Prorating the projections exaggerates some nuances and closes the gap on others: when given 630 plate appearances, #51 and #215 are projected for identical home runs (22) and stolen bases (23) with a mere 9-point difference in batting average (i.e., an almost negligible difference). #202’s deficiencies also disappear, relatively speaking; outside his own batting average deficit, his 18-208-.240 line blends right in. And #184’s speed suddenly pops out.

It’s an anecdotal observation, but I think we have a tenuous understanding of — and, thus, a weird relationship with — the intersection of contact quality and contact skills. What’s not shown in the table above are the vastly different contact rates (Contact%), batting averages on balls in play (BABIP), strikeout rate (K%), etc., all of which affect our perception of a hitter’s risk, even if their median or mean outcome brings them to the same destination.

In this group, there’s clearly one name-brand player and four off-brand replacements. It stands to reason any of the four below could sufficiently replace #51. Granted, they have their warts baked into each of their prices: #155 lacks #51’s upside, mostly due to age; #184, #202 and #215 have some combination of playing time and talent concerns. And #51 can’t be condensed so simply, either — he allegedly has sky-high upside (on which I’m not totally sold; I’m not sure he did much more than mash fastballs for a month last summer).

Still, all four generic-brand hitters in this group could adequately replace #51. This exercise could easily be reversed, sure — for example, draft #51 in lieu of Nelson Cruz in the fourth round, then draft Adam Duvall later instead — but, hey. I’m risk-averse, and I’m out on #51. I like #202 most as the best cost-effective later-round alternative.

#51: Byron Buxton, MIN OF
#155: Kevin Kiermaier, TBR OF
#184: Jonathan Villar, MIL 2B
#202: Bradley Zimmer, CLE OF
#215: Michael Taylor, WAS OF

Comparison #2: Power-Hitting Outfielders, Mostly

This setup is kind of the inverse of the previous comparison group. Rather than being least-hyped about the highest-drafted hitter, I’m most-hyped about the lowest-drafted hitter. (I also think there’s a very solid buying opportunity for #143, too, but that’s neither here nor there.) In this instance, no prorating is needed to see how similar all four project to be, with above-average power and batting average but little speed and lackluster on-base percentages (OBP).

The “mostly” inserted into this particular section’s title may be playing an important role here: #62 mans the relatively offensively-scarce keystone while projecting for the most power of the lot. Problem is, second base isn’t exactly scarce anymore, and paying a premium for power at a position that no longer lacks it like it did half a decade ago could be poor form. Moreover, and more flummoxing, #266 will likely qualify at second base in other non-NFBC formats. If you could trade 14 rounds of value (more, in smaller leagues) to obtain nearly identical value, wouldn’t you?

Circling back around to #143, he’s older. He doesn’t run anymore, which makes him significantly less appealing, yet this no-speed version of him has threatened the top-100 two straight years. Still fairly young and showing little wear and tear, he’s a good bet to turn a profit in a game dominated by shaving your losses. And, uh, circling back around to #213… honestly, I’m not sure why I included him. He’s good, but he may never live up to his former hype at Coors Field (spoiler alert) and has exhibited a disconcerting downward trend in contact skills, his whiff rate (SwStr%) increasing steadily each of the last three seasons.

Irrespective of these comparisons, I’m all in on #266. He’s a rookie and, because he’s not a tip-top-prospect, he’s “unproven.” But he has a spot all to himself in his team’s barren outfield, and his combination of power and contact skills went nearly unrivaled at Triple-A last year — nearly, because only Rhys Hoskins outperformed him in their age group. To me, he’s as sure a bet as Andrew Benintendi, last year’s #116 player by ADP and #50 player end-of-season.

#62: Jonathan Schoop, BAL 2B
#143: Adam Jones, BAL OF
#213: Corey Dickerson, TBR OF
#266: Willie Calhoun, TEX OF/2B