Two-Pitch Starters
A diverse pitching arsenal can help a starter successfully navigate a lineup several times since hitters have a harder time sitting on a single pitch. I went through the 2018 starters and found four pitcher groups who are the two ends of the spectrum. Either they rely on two pitches or have a diverse arsenal.
Many articles have been written about times through the order but the Holy Grail of research articles is the one MGL wrote a few years back. In it, he quantified how much having a third pitch helps. The research holds up even now. I took the 206 starters who threw at least 30 innings and found the percentage of pitches which were fastballs and next highest thrown. Normally, the average was around 75%. Then, I divided up the pitchers into 5% increments. Next, I subtracted the ERA from an average of their ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, kwERA, SIERA) and here the average values.
| Pitches | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|
| > 85% are 2 pitches, >= 60% fastball | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| > 85% are 2 pitches, < 60% fastball | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| 65% to 70% are 2 pitches | -0.24 | -0.32 |
| <65% are 2 pitches | -0.39 | -0.51 |
Even in this small sample, it is can be seen that have a diverse arsenal helps a pitcher post an ERA under his estimators.
Having a diverse arsenal isn’t the only consideration (e.g. groundball rate) in determining a pitcher’s value but can help explain why some pitchers struggle while still striking out batters and limiting walks.
It’s now time for the lists going from limited to those with more diverse arsenals.
Two-Pitch, Mainly Fastball
| Name | Top 2 | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Lucchesi | 98% | 64% | 3% | 34% | |||
| Freddy Peralta | 97% | 78% | 19% | 3% | |||
| Frankie Montas | 97% | 72% | 25% | 3% | |||
| Brad Keller | 96% | 69% | 27% | 4% | |||
| Clayton Richard | 94% | 66% | 28% | 6% | |||
| Jose Quintana | 93% | 68% | 25% | 7% | |||
| Kyle Hendricks | 93% | 62% | 8% | 31% | |||
| Jose Berrios | 91% | 61% | 31% | 9% | |||
| Hector Santiago | 91% | 68% | 3% | 6% | 23% | ||
| Sal Romano | 89% | 66% | 5% | 23% | 6% | ||
| Luis Perdomo | 89% | 63% | 26% | 11% | |||
| Bartolo Colon | 89% | 78% | 8% | 4% | 11% | ||
| Lance Lynn | 89% | 78% | 11% | 9% | 2% | ||
| Aaron Sanchez | 88% | 64% | 12% | 24% | |||
| Fernando Romero | 88% | 63% | 25% | 12% | |||
| Tyler Mahle | 88% | 68% | 20% | 1% | 11% | ||
| Ivan Nova | 88% | 67% | 21% | 12% | |||
| Jefry Rodriguez | 87% | 65% | 22% | 13% | |||
| Sean Reid-Foley | 87% | 63% | 23% | 6% | 8% | ||
| Junior Guerra | 87% | 70% | 14% | 17% | |||
| Eric Skoglund | 86% | 60% | 26% | 14% | |||
| J.A. Happ | 86% | 73% | 13% | 2% | 12% | ||
| Ryne Stanek | 86% | 61% | 25% | 14% | |||
| Michael Fulmer | 86% | 61% | 25% | 14% | |||
| James Paxton | 85% | 64% | 14% | 22% | 0% | ||
| Carlos Rodon | 86% | 60% | 26% | 14% |
The one pitcher who jumps off the page is James Paxton. Even though he is near the list’s end, he leans heavily on his fastball and slider. Last season, he got hit around and his ERA (3.76) was quite a bit higher than his ERA estimators which all hovered around 3.00.
Two Pitches, Even Mix
| Name | Top 2 | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 95% | 59% | 4% | 1% | 36% | 1% | |
| Felix Pena | 93% | 58% | 35% | 7% | |||
| Anthony DeSclafani | 93% | 58% | 35% | 4% | 4% | ||
| Jakob Junis | 93% | 53% | 39% | 2% | 6% | ||
| Jhoulys Chacin | 92% | 48% | 44% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Drew Pomeranz | 90% | 52% | 8% | 38% | 3% | ||
| Patrick Corbin | 90% | 49% | 41% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Garrett Richards | 89% | 51% | 39% | 11% | |||
| Cody Reed | 89% | 50% | 40% | 11% | |||
| Jason Hammel | 89% | 52% | 37% | 6% | 5% | ||
| Chris Archer | 89% | 47% | 42% | 2% | 10% | ||
| Sean Manaea | 88% | 56% | 12% | 32% | |||
| Charlie Morton | 88% | 58% | 6% | 29% | 6% | ||
| Daniel Norris | 87% | 54% | 33% | 6% | 6% | ||
| Trevor Richards | 87% | 55% | 13% | 32% | |||
| Tyler Skaggs | 87% | 59% | 28% | 13% | |||
| Luis Severino | 86% | 50% | 36% | 14% | |||
| Caleb Smith | 86% | 59% | 27% | 14% | |||
| Marco Estrada | 86% | 49% | 6% | 8% | 37% | ||
| Jaime Barria | 86% | 50% | 36% | 14% | |||
| Jack Flaherty | 86% | 56% | 30% | 11% | 3% |
Lots of big names on this list but the one which stood out to me is Luis Severino. His 2017 breakout centered around him throwing his change more. Here is a graph of his changeup use (CH%), ERA, and FIP over the past two seasons.
When he keeps his change usage over 13%, he doesn’t allow many runs but when it dropped to ~11% after the 2018 All-Star game, his ERA ballooned. Once he started throwing it again at the season’s end, his ERA dropped.
Diverse Mixed Mix
| Name | Top 2 | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Minor | 70% | 49% | 21% | 11% | 19% | ||
| Zack Greinke | 70% | 49% | 17% | 13% | 21% | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | 70% | 34% | 35% | 23% | 8% | ||
| Brandon McCarthy | 70% | 38% | 9% | 31% | 22% | ||
| Trevor Bauer | 69% | 42% | 14% | 10% | 27% | 7% | |
| Chad Bettis | 69% | 42% | 18% | 13% | 27% | ||
| Erasmo Ramirez | 69% | 41% | 10% | 28% | 2% | 20% | |
| Erick Fedde | 68% | 55% | 14% | 14% | 7% | 11% | |
| Cole Hamels | 68% | 45% | 23% | 13% | 19% | ||
| Joe Musgrove | 68% | 50% | 18% | 15% | 3% | 14% | |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx | 68% | 47% | 5% | 21% | 8% | 19% | |
| Matt Koch | 67% | 41% | 26% | 16% | 17% | ||
| Edwin Jackson | 67% | 34% | 21% | 33% | 4% | 8% | |
| Max Scherzer | 67% | 50% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 16% | |
| Ross Stripling | 67% | 42% | 25% | 23% | 11% | ||
| Blaine Hardy | 67% | 34% | 33% | 9% | 24% | ||
| Carlos Martinez | 66% | 44% | 22% | 18% | 3% | 13% | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 66% | 42% | 11% | 23% | 24% | ||
| Mike Fiers | 66% | 48% | 7% | 11% | 16% | 18% | |
| Marcus Stroman | 66% | 49% | 17% | 16% | 14% | 5% | |
| Clay Buchholz | 66% | 41% | 25% | 17% | 17% | 0% | |
| Michael Wacha | 66% | 43% | 20% | 15% | 22% | ||
| Trevor Cahill | 65% | 41% | 19% | 16% | 24% |
This list is full of “gamers” and “finesse” pitchers. The key for me is it shows how productive a pitcher can make if they develop two above-average non-fastballs. Having the diverse arsenal will be a nice tiebreaker to help differentiate someone from The Glob (h/t Sporer).
Extreme Pitch Mix
| Name | Top 2 | FB% | SL% | CT% | CB% | CH% | SF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade LeBlanc | 64% | 35% | 0% | 26% | 10% | 30% | |
| Anibal Sanchez | 63% | 38% | 5% | 23% | 9% | 25% | |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 62% | 37% | 1% | 25% | 19% | 19% | |
| Wade Miley | 62% | 20% | 3% | 42% | 19% | 17% | |
| Mike Leake | 61% | 38% | 12% | 22% | 10% | 18% | |
| James Shields | 60% | 36% | 24% | 22% | 18% | ||
| Masahiro Tanaka | 60% | 26% | 34% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 30% |
| CC Sabathia | 59% | 17% | 31% | 42% | 10% | ||
| Sonny Gray | 57% | 34% | 17% | 22% | 23% | 4% | |
| Marco Gonzales | 56% | 33% | 22% | 22% | 23% |
Zero stars in this group but some pitchers I’m not going to shy away from in the reserve rounds or as streaming options. The extra pitches made several of these pitchers great unknowns last season and I really want to see the price on Gonzales and Tanaka on draft day to help fill out my rotation.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Surprised not to see Luis Castillo on here. It seems to me he throws mostly fastballs and that ridiculously deadly changeup but maybe the tracker is categorizing them differently than I’m seeing them?
He just missed the cut-off since he throws his slider over 16% of the time.
Castillo has a good slider