Trade Implications: Up Goes Frazier… to Chicago

My headline would’ve been way better if Todd Frazier was traded somewhere south of Cincinnati. It’s pretty dope, though, right? RIGHT? He was the centerpiece to a three-team trade with the Dodgers, White Sox, and of course the Reds. The Dodgers and Reds each got a three-pack of prospects which we’ll get to shortly, but first let’s focus on Frazier with the White Sox.

Third base has long been an issue for the White Sox. In fact, when they first hired Robin Ventura it was to be the third baseman again, but after informed them that he was 44 years old and wouldn’t be any better than the dregs they were running out there already, he shifted into the manager’s role and they went with Orlando Hudson (50 wRC+ in 51 games) and Brent Morel (11 in 35) before getting the last bit of juice out of Kevin Youkilis for the second half of the season (110 in 80 and then he was done after just 28 games with NYY the following season).

Ventura was the last great 3B for the White Sox, while Joe Crede was the last stable option they had and he’s been gone since 2008. Since then it’s been the likes of Gordon Beckham, Omar Vizquel (yeah, for real), Conor Gillaspie, Josh Fields, Jayson Nix, Jeff Keppinger, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Olt, Dallas McPherson, Marcus Semien, and the aforementioned Hudson, Morel, and Youk.

Pete, whattya think of that 3B sitch in Chicago???

My name’s not Bob, but you’re right.

In the last four years during Frazier’s emergence into stardom, the White Sox have been dead-ass last in WAR and wRC+ at third base while Frazier has been 10th and 15th, respectively, with the fifth-most home runs (102). When analyzing trades, you really have to look at what a team is upgrading from in addition to assessing the talent coming in. They didn’t even need someone of Frazier’s caliber to get a major upgrade, so this ends up being a colossal jump from where they were previously.

Frazier moves from one hitter-friendly park to another so there’s no real change, plus his power plays anywhere so I wouldn’t even be worried if he wasn’t in a home run-boosting environment. The two clubs were 24th and 26th in wRC+ last year, but I still think it’s an improvement for Frazier because the lineups are headed in vastly different directions.

He will slot fourth behind Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, and Jose Abreu with capable bats like Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and Adam LaRoche behind him. Cincy still has Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce, but the latter two seem to be in more trade talks than even Frazier was before being dealt so even if they had kept him, it easily could’ve been Votto, Frazier, and six randoms (OK, they’re not all randoms and Devin Mesoraco could come back, but the White Sox lineup is clearly better).

Despite spending 480-some words to get there, the bottom line is that this mostly a static move for Frazier outside of more RBI opportunities which give him a good shot to set a new high and perhaps even chase down triple-digits. Abreu managed 101 with this club last year while Frazier had just 89… 84 of which seemingly came in the first half.

The highest I think you can really put Frazier in the 3B mix is fourth. Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Nolan Arenado are the clear top three in some order with Frazier battling Kris Bryant for the four-spot. I prefer Frazier personally, but I understand the Bryant angle. I’m just a little nervous about the 31% K rate he had in his rookie year. He either needs to cut it drastically or repeat a .378 BABIP if he’s going to reach a .275 AVG again.

None of the six prospects going to LA or Cincy has major fantasy impact right now, so I’ll give a quick bit on each.

Dodgers get: Francelis Montas, Trayce Thompson, and Micah Johnson – all from the White Sox

Montas – He got a little 15-inning taste of the majors late last season and showed off his huge arm, pumping fastballs in at 96-98 MPH on the reg with a 102 MPH peak! Command issues and the lack of a reliable third pitch likely put him in the bullpen long-term, but he looks like a late-inning reliever for sure and possibly even a future closer. Some have speculated that the Dodgers are collecting pieces for a bigger move, but Montas could be a big piece of their bridge to Kenley Jansen and then maybe his successor after 2016.

Thompson – He jumped onto the scene with a two month audition unlike anything we’d seen in the minors. In his seven minor league seasons, he topped an .800 OPS just once before unleashing an .896 on major league competition in 135 PA. There’s nothing in the sample that says it was a stone-cold fluke, like a .400 BABIP or 30% HR/FB rate, but the size of the sample itself is your warning not to get too excited.

The athleticism alone is worth a gamble in deep leagues, but don’t get carried away by imagining him rise up like brother Klay has for the Golden State Warriors. The one thing we didn’t see much of during Trayce’s MLB run was the skill that could be his calling card for fantasy in 2016, the speed. He went 1-for-1 with the White Sox, but he was 94-for-123 (76%) in 3140 minor league PA with three 20+ SB seasons.

Johnson – He was a trendy sleeper last year as a cheap speed option up the middle. He earned the job out of camp, but didn’t hang onto it for very long. The White Sox had some expectations going into last year so they couldn’t afford to be patient and he was out after 83 PA of a .631 OPS (and just 3-for-5 on the bases).

He might’ve stuck around if he was playing exemplary defense as that plagued the Sox all season, but that was arguably worse than the hitting. He got back on track in Triple-A, excelling in his repeat of the level (.841 OPS) after a disappointing first showing there in 2014 (.684). He remains a very interesting speed play with a 75% success rate in 205 minor league attempts (including an 80% clip on 35 attempts last season).

Reds get: Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, and Brandon Dixon – all from the Dodgers

Peraza – He’s the big name here as the lone top prospect going to Cincinnati . He’s a speedy 2B who could make a trade of Phillips easier for Cincy. He has back-to-back 60+ SB seasons in 2013-14 and though he dropped down to 33 last year, it was on 40 attempts for a killer 83% success rate. If that Phillips trade happens and Peraza has a bead on a spot, then he’s a great speed gamble.

Schebler – He’s shown some nice pop in the minors and Kiley said one scout gave him a Brandon Moss comp. Some of his number may’ve been built on being older for his levels as they took quite a hit during his first run through Triple-A. He had a .731 OPS after back-to-back seasons over .920 in High-A and Double-A. There are opportunities for playing time in that outfield even if Bruce stays so Schebler could at least get a strong-side platoon role and deliver some cheap power with a weak batting average.

Dixon – He’s a dice roll. He beat up the Cal League (High-A) as a 23-year old earlier this year so it’s tough to get too excited about his .932 OPS, especially since he came right back to earth in Double-A, a level he was still kinda old for as a college draftee in his third pro season.

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Right now Montas, Thompson, Johnson, and Peraza all have deep mixed league appeal as reserves and late-round intrigue for NL-only leagues (you can take them just before the reserves in NL-only, but only if the league actually has reserves because they could all start in the minors) . Stay tuned to see if their playing time outlook improves during Spring Training. Although short of Montas somehow finding himself with a shot at closing, I don’t see any of them becoming mixed league starters by draft season. Schebler is an NL-only flier at best and Dixon is a total wait-and-see regardless of league type.