Top Pitching Prospects Review — Jul 7, 2025

Last week, I reviewed how the top hitting prospect have performed in the Majors this year. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching prospects. This time, I’ll be using the Post-Spring Training Top 100 Prospects Update, instead of the preseason list.

Wow, that is a lot of high ERAs!

We’ll start with the top prospect in baseball, Roki Sasaki. He had been a massive disappointment through eight starts before hitting the IL with a shoulder injury. He hasn’t pitched since early May and there’s still no timetable for his return. Though he featured a fastball that averaged 96 MPH, that was lower than expected (perhaps partly due to the shoulder issue), and both PitchingBot and Stuff+ though it was a below average pitch, with Stuff+ rating it tied for the 14th worst fastball in baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched. That’s shocking for a guy that throws this hard and was so highly regarded. His legendary splitter rated well by the models, but only generated a 13.3% SwStk%, which is below average for the pitch type.

The hope here is that he returns healthy, gains velocity, and the effectiveness of all his pitches improve. He’s only 23 years old, and clearly has a strong foundation to work from, so I’m sure we’ll get significantly better results at some point.

Jackson Jobe continued to show some of the better stuff in baseball, but it failed to translate into strikeouts. He seems like just a mechanical tweak away from a breakout, as it’s hard to believe someone with his repertoire is unable to push his strikeout rate into the 20% range. Unfortunately, we’re going to have to wait until next summer to find out if he could make adjustments as he recovers from TJ surgery.

No matter how good a starting pitcher prospect you are, it’s really, really hard pitching half your games at a premier hitter’s park like Coors Field. Even with Coors as the backdrop, it’s hard to believe that Chase Dollander has managed just a 17.2% strikeout rate while averaging 97.6 MPH with his fastball. Combine that pitch with a curve and cutter that both pitch models love and you’d think you’d get a mid-20% strikeout rate. Instead, his SwStk% is stuck in single digits and while he’s been far better on the road, even a 20.3% strikeout rate is disappointing. If he eventually gets out of Colorado, he’ll be an intriguing target, but unless that happens, he should be treated like any other Rockies starter that remains far away from your roster.

After many fantasy leaguers picked up Chase Burns after his first solid start in the Majors, he burned them by allowing five runs in just 0.1 innings during his second start. That seems par for the course for a pitcher who rocketed through the minors, hitting High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A all this season. He’s essentially a two-pitch guy with his fastball and slider, so he’ll have to ensure the changeup he throws is effective against lefties or he could really struggle against opposite handed batters. What’s interesting here is his 98+ MPH fastball is loved by PitchingBot, but Stuff+ gives it a complete average grade. I always wonder which model to believe when you see such a stark gap. They both love his slider though, but also disagree about his changeup, a pitch models struggle to evaluate given how much its tied to other pitches. His repertoire seems pretty similar to Hunter Greene, so perhaps he could lean on him as a second coach.

I am always more willing to roster the high walk rate guy with a great strikeout rate than the low walk guy with a middling strikeout rate, thinking it’s easier to improve control than strike out more hitters. So normally I would be all over Jacob Misiorowski, but it’s really about the future, not necessarily the moment the guys with below average control debut. Misiorowski has posted double digit walk rates every where he has pitched and that hasn’t changed in his 19.2 innings in the Majors. Luckily, he’s got a strong strikeout rate so far, though I question how sustainable it is with a below average 26.8% CSW%. He has thrown even harder than Burns and also features a heavy dose of his slider, but leans on his curve rather than change for left-handers, for the most part. Unlike Burns, the pitch models both drool over his fastball and love his slider too. His 70 botStf ranks first and 123 Stuff+ ranks second among 209 pitchers with at least 10 innings as a starter, which is pretty incredible for a rookie. The future looks exciting.

AJ Smith-Shawver is the second name already that got bit by the TJ surgery bug after making nine starts and unveiling a new splitter the pitch models really liked. He’ll be back at a similar time as Jobe.

Chase Petty was welcomed to the Majors by allowing nine runs in just 2.1 innings in his first start. He made another start a couple of weeks later where he walked six batters, then pitched 0.2 innings in relief a couple of weeks ago. The minor league skills here have been unimpressive so it’s no real surprise to see him struggle, though not to the degree he did. He seems like a typical Reds pitcher with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and heavy slider usage, but neither pitch model thinks the fastball is even average despite the velocity, while the slider ranges from slightly above average to just average. That matches with meh strikeout rates in the minors, though those have always come with SwStk% marks no lower than 12.6%, so I’m actually surprised he hasn’t posted higher strikeout rates in the past. I’m not particularly optimistic here.

After a seven-run, 1.1 inning affair at the end of May, things were going quite well for Will Warren. That was, until his last start when he imploded again for eight runs allowed in four innings. The skills, though, are really strong, and his 3.59 SIERA and 3.65 xERA suggest he’s been quite a bit unlucky as his ERA sits just over 5.00. He could thank a .336 BABIP and suppressed 65.9% for the inflated ERA. PitchingBot loves his stuff, rating every single pitch above average, while Stuff+ is a bit less enamored but still thinks he possesses above average stuff. I’m not totally confident he could maintain that strikeout rate, though, with a middling 10.3% SwStk%, as he’s benefiting from a high CStr% which I have less confidence in remaining stable. But if he somehow does manage to maintain this high a strikeout, he makes for a strong trade target.

Richard Fitts was one of the talks of spring training when he was featuring higher velocity on his fastball and while he hasn’t held onto all those gains, he has averaged 1.1 MPH faster with his fastball. It hasn’t really mattered though in 28 innings, as his strikeout rate remains below 20%. He’s getting swinging strikes though, but a lack of called strikes has suppressed his CSW%, and limited the benefits of the increased velocity. If the increased velocity hasn’t been enough to boost his strikeout rate to even 20%, I don’t know what will.

Woah, it’s pretty surprising to see Cade Horton sitting with just a 16.9% strikeout rate after consistently being in the high-20% or low-30% range in the minors. He is throwing significantly harder than he was at Triple-A last year as well, and yet he sports a below average Stuff+, though a slightly above average botStf. His 27.3% is close to league average, which is disappointing, but I’d expect a much better strikeout rate to match it. Add in his minor league history and you’d have to think we’ll see something in the 20% range the rest of the way.

Gosh, I’m so wishy-washy on Kumar Rocker. His minor league history of strikeouts and low walk rates, assortment of pitches, and strong fastball velocity make me want to love his potential. But all of his pitches, except his sinker, grade out as below average according to PitchingBot, with his sinker exactly average, while his overall Stuff+ is below average. That even includes a slider that graded out as 80/80! Stuff+ thinks it’s slightly above average at 101, but that’s still shockingly low for a pitch slapped with a perfect pair of scouting grades. So I just don’t know what to think here, but his results and low strikeout rate are making his pitch model grades look like the ones to believe.

Caden Dana made two three-inning relief appearances in early April and then late May, while posting an ugly 6.23 ERA at Triple-A this year with weak skills. It would be surprising if he receives another promotion, and I wouldn’t be interested in speculating even if he did.

I was tempted to actually draft Grant Taylor in AL Tout Wars this year based on what I saw and read about him during spring training, but then I realized how silly it would be to roster a guy on draft day who had only pitched at Single-A and was merely the 86th best prospect in baseball at the time. Luckily, it worked out because I ended up winning Taylor in FAAB a couple of weeks ago anyway, as he has converted from starter to reliever and might have become the de facto White Sox closer. I love the skills here as he’s a strikeout guy with good enough control and even a ground ball tilt. He’s got the trifecta! PitchingBot has a major crush on him with no grade below 64 and a botERA of just 2.16, but it’s at odds with Stuff+, which doesn’t care for his cutter or curve. That’s fascinating, as the two pitches score perfect 80 grades from PitchingBot, but are between 81 and 85 (below the 100 average) from Stuff+! I’d love to hear an explanation for the diverging calculations, but whatever the answer, he’s clearly a must-own.

Braxton Ashcraft is our first real middle reliever, as he’s not closing and just pitching in the middle innings, really limiting his value. Once a consistent SwStk% master in the minors, it’s sitting sub-10% now, fueling a sub-20% strikeout rate. He could be ignored in fantasy leagues.

Gunnar Hoglund is yet another who currently sits on the IL, though his elbow is fine, so it’s possible we see him again this season. Fantasy owners shouldn’t really care either way though as he had posted an underwhelming strikeout rate in the Majors and hasn’t peaked at just a 26.9% CSW% in the minors in any reasonable sample of innings. So there’s not a whole lot of strikeout potential here, meaning there are better speculations.

Logan Henderson has been up and down this season, making four starts for the Brewers, posting strong skills. His 35.8% strikeout rate over those starts is elite, but looks highly fluky given the below average 25.4% CSW%. He’s been an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is great for his BABIP potential, but could result in severe gopheritis, which will be more concerning once his strikeout rate falls more in line with his CSW%. He’s basically a fastball-changeup guy, with below average velocity on his fastball. That changeup was graded 70/70 though and PitchingBot really likes it, though Stuff+ doesn’t, as these models struggle with the interaction between pitches. The models do agree that all his other pitches are below average. The changeup did only generate a 13% SwStk%, so I don’t know how good it really was itself, but since his fastball was at 12%, which is well above average, perhaps the changeup increased the pitch’s effectiveness. The minor league numbers look good, but I’m really unsure what the future holds here.

Yilber Díaz got three relief innings in, but is currently at Triple-A where he has started eight games, but also pitched out of the bullpen. Incredibly, he has walked 48 batters in just 40.1 minor league innings this season, while posting a 10.04 ERA, so something doesn’t seem right. Whether or not he’s pitching hurt, it’s hard to imagine him getting another chance with the Diamondbacks anytime soon.