Top Hitting Prospects Review — Jul 1, 2025

With just over half the season in the books, let’s review the performances and fantasy contributions of the preseason top hitting prospects that have made it to the Majors so far this season. Depending on your league size, format, and competitors, top prospects are often hot commodities on draft day, sometimes going for inflated prices that are difficult to break even on. So let’s see how this year’s crop has done. Note that many of these hitters remain in small sample size territory, so I won’t constantly repeat that caveat in each blurb.

Fantasy owners and Red Sox fans have been clamoring for Roman Anthony’s promotion all season long. It finally came on June 9, and he has rotated between right field, left field, and the DH slot since. His 68 PAs have been a mixed bag so far. On the one hand, the 21-year-old has showcased splendid plate discipline, as his incredible patience has already translated and he has posted an elite 6.6% SwStk%. Furthermore, he has posted fantastic Statcast power metrics, validating his 55/70 Game and 70/80 Raw Power grades so far. On the other hand, he has struggled to hit line drives, hampering his BABIP, and despite the strong Statcast power metrics, he has homered just once for a 6.7% HR/FB rate, en route to a disappointing .140 ISO. Overall, we expected more than an 87 wRC+.

Though the start has been underwhelming, the skill set here is drool-worthy. It’s rare to find a player this young with this kind of plate patience and discipline, and the power is already unbelievable. I would like to see a higher FB% and since he swiped just three bases at Triple-A this year, we might not get a true power-speed combo meal, but mostly just a power one, reducing his fantasy upside. Still, he looks like a lock to become a fantasy monster, with skills pretty similar to James Wood. His value skyrockets in OBP leagues as well.

Speaking of power-speed mixes, Dylan Crews was an intriguing fantasy talent heading into the season, but he struggled before getting hurt and now hasn’t played since May 20. His power output increased, but his strikeout rate spiked thanks to a jump in SwStk%, which combined with a weak BABIP, kept his batting average below the Mendoza Line. With a .343 xwOBA, I’m not worried here. If anything, this will just reduce his cost next year, depending on how he performs when he eventually returns from his injury.

I did not expect Kristian Campbell to win a job out of spring training, but that’s exactly what happened, which made me regret not being more aggressive about drafting him…at least initially. He ended up disappointing offensively, though, and has been jettisoned back to Triple-A. Most of the skill metrics here look reasonable, but I would have liked to see a higher Barrel% and more than two steals. A consistently sub-30% FB% is going to cap his home run potential so he’ll need to run more, closer to as frequently as he did in the minors, to become the power/speed force we thought he could be.

It’s very bizarre that the Dodgers recalled the eighth best prospect in baseball in Dalton Rushing back in mid-May and then proceeded to reward him with just 59 PAs since. Usually the Dodgers don’t make such head-scratching decisions, but what on Earth are they doing to their preseason second best prospect?! It’s kind of meaningless to evaluate his hitting so far, but I’m still going to note his insane strikeout rate at 47.5%. Everything else looks great though, and the Statcast metrics suggest significantly better power than that 9.1% HR/FB rate and miniscule .096 ISO. It’s impossible to hold him in redraft and shallow leagues, but perhaps him being up and rarely starting has reduced his keeper league cost.

We got two catchers in a row, but Drake Baldwin has actually earned playing time and also been fantastic. The power has been elite with Statcast metrics too boot, but his HR/FB rate looks unsustainable combined with a sub-.200 ISO, as the lack of doubles suggests the home run rate might not remain at this level. Aside from that regression possibility, he should be hitting more fly balls given the power and lack of speed. Man, between Baldwin and Sean Murphy, their catchers are one of the few positions that have not disappointed this season.

Matt Shaw opened the season as the Cubs starting third baseman, got demoted for a spell, and then returned. He posted a 61 wRC+ in the early going, and an improved, but still underwhelming, 86 wRC+ since he returned. For the season, his plate discipline metrics have held up decently since his minor league time, while his batting ball distribution is solid, except for a skyhigh IFFB%, which is a major problem and undoubtedly hampering his BABIP. Worse, the power he has shown all throughout his minor league career has disappeared. Even his Statcast metrics stink, so you wonder what has happened to his ability to hit the ball hard. He’s stealing bases at least, but with a sub-.300 BABIP thanks to so many pop-ups and limited power, he’s done little for fantasy owners. His time for his power to reappear is narrowing as the Cubs consider upgrading the position by the trade deadline to solidify their first place standing.

Surprise, surprise, Jordan Lawlar has battled injuries this year and has only recorded 22 PAs in the Majors, though 250 in the minors. Most of his low PAs in the Majors was simply because everywhere he could realistically play is being blocked by a Diamondbacks hitter performing extremely well at the plate. He’s been fantastic in the minors though, showing off an exciting blend of power and speed, along with his typical double digit walk rate. He’s clearly someone that needs to remain on fantasy radars for when he finally does get another shot at regular playing time.

Though the plate patience has been there, and he’s been a fly ball hitter to take advantage of his power, and he has posted a .338 BABIP, it’s probably still acceptable to consider it a disappointing season for Jasson Domínguez. The biggest problem has been a lack of power, which is bizarre given excellent Statcast metrics. But I discovered the root cause! He has pulled just 11.3% of his fly balls, versus a 25.2% league average. That makes little sense playing half his games in the fourth best left-handed and third best right-handed home run park in baseball. The league has posted a 29.4% HR/FB rate on pulled fly balls, but just a 3.4% mark on fly balls going the opposite way. There’s not much else you need to see to confirm that you want to pull your flies to hit more home runs! So it’s as simple as that. For whatever reason, Domínguez isn’t pulling his flies, and his power is going to continue to suffer unless and until that changes.

Nick Kurtz is a great example of not dropping a player too quickly if they don’t perform immediately. Over his first 59 PAs, he posted just a 79 wRC+ without a home run. Since, he has posted a 147 wRC+ with a .357 ISO and 31.6% HR/FB rate. His power output now looks more in line with expectations given his short minor league career and scouting power grades. He’s still striking out often though and a microscopic 12.8% LD% means he’s going to struggle to hit for an above league average BABIP, hampering his batting average, which is already hampered by a high strikeout rate. So really, he looks like the prototypical low-average slugger, which is perfectly fine if that’s all you expect.

Gosh, poor Coby Mayo simply hasn’t been able to get a true extended look in the starting lineup. Obviously, it doesn’t help that when he does start, he hasn’t hit, but it must be tough being jerked around like he has. I can’t really blame the Orioles too much though considering they continue to have too many potential bats for too few starting spots, at least when everyone is healthy. Mayo has been better than last year’s cup of coffee, but the power still hasn’t translated. The Statcast metrics are much better though and look much more like what we would expect. The results haven’t come yet though, as a 4.3% HR/FB rate and .116 are disappointing once again. Since he’s not strong defensively, it’ll be tough for the Orioles to remain patient here.

One of the most anticipated call-ups of the year after demolishing both Double-A and Triple-A pitching, Jac Caglianone’s bat has gone into hiding since joining the Royals. While his strikeout rate and SwStk% are fine, he stopped walking, which is odd. He has also hit a high rate of grounders, which makes little sense for a hitter with his power. The Statcast metrics are significantly better than his HR/FB rate and ISO would suggest he has posted, though perhaps slightly disappointing in their own right. So essentially, the power results just haven’t been there, as he has posted just an 11.8% HR/FB rate, which is league averageish and therefore not terrible, but also a tiny .106 ISO, which is shocking. His pulled fly ball rate is lower than average, so that’s part of the problem. I’m going to chalk most of this up to a small sample size (power results not matching Statcast metrics) and overly aggressive young top prospect during his first taste of the bigs (low walk rate). He also needs to fix that batted ball distribution, so there’s clearly work to do. Don’t forget, he has had very little minor league experience and only 54 PAs at Triple-A, so it’s no surprise to see him struggling initially.

After another strong minor league performance and a nice rebound off a disappointing performance during his first Triple-A action in 2024, Kyle Teel has mostly been as advertised at the plate with the White Sox. The plate discipline has been fantastic, as he has walked at a mid-double digit clip, the batted ball distribution has been elite, heavy on line drives, en route to an absurd .469 BABIP. The power results, though, haven’t been there yet, as he has yet to homer and sports just a .085 ISO. That said, his HardHit% is above average and he has posted a double digit Barrel%. Though, his maxEV is just 106 MPH, so his peak velocity so far hasn’t been great. So far so good here!

Jacob Wilson has certainly been one of the biggest surprises in both real and fantasy baseball. He ranks second among qualified batters in all of baseball in batting average and has managed a double digit HR/FB rate despite weak Statcast metrics thanks to his attendance at the Isaac Paredes School of Home Run Hitting For Players With Below Average Power (a high rate of pulled fly balls). It’s an overall skill set that feels risky as an unlucky BABIP could quickly turn him into replacement level in shallow mixed leagues.

Luke Keaschall had recorded just 26 PAs before injury forced him to the IL. He has shown excellent plate discipline in the minors, along with some power and above average speed, making him a nice little potential combo mix. He’s worth remembering for when he returns from injury.

Marcelo Mayer’s strikeout rate sits just over 30%, though his SwSk% isn’t crazy high, and he hasn’t offset those whiffs with a high enough walk rate, which sits at a professional low. He has also struggled to hit line drives, which has hurt his BABIP, though he hasn’t hit a pop-up yet which partially offsets the lack of liners. The power results have been there at least, as he sports a surprising 26.7% HR/FB rate and .221 ISO, thanks to an elite 59.6% HardHit%. It’s actually weird to see such a high HardHit% paired with a single digit Barrel%, so I doubt that HR/FB rate lasts. He’s not a big basestealer and hasn’t attempted one with the Red Sox yet, so he’ll need that power to deliver fantasy value.

Cam Smith has improved each month and has pushed his season line to a very respectable level. His .366 BABIP looks unsustainable, but it’s actually buoyed by a fantastic batted ball profile. Of course, it’s anyone’s guess if he could actually maintain that high of an LD% and that low of an IFFB%. Unfortunately, that distribution is low on fly balls, so he’s not taking full advantage of the 16.7% HR/FBRATE, which is backed by pretty good Statcast metrics. Speaking of which, he’s got that weird combination of strong HardHit% and maxEV, but close to league average Barrel%. I like seeing that as potential power upside if the Barrel% improves, as that’s just simply more optimally pairing the EV he already records with better launch angles.

Chandler Simpson is the new Juan Pierre! With projections of around a .300 wOBA and poor defense, I’m actually surprise Simpson is back with a starting job with the Rays. But fantasy owners are surely happy! All the metrics look about as expected and he has already stolen an absurd 21 bases in just 157 PAs over 41 games. That’s like an 80 steal pace over a full season! Of course, it might come without a homer, mediocre runs scored and below average RBI totals, but the batting average should also be good, a la Pierre. His playing time is going to be at risk the rest of the season since he’s worth far more in fantasy leagues than in real baseball.

After posting double digit walk rates at nearly every minor league stop, Cole Young stopped walking upon joining the Mariner, while his strikeout rate has spiked over 20% for the first time. he has also oddly become an extreme fly ball hitter with his FB% jumping over 40% for the first time as well. All those flies have done him no good since his Statcast metrics are weak and he has yet to muscle even one of those many flies over the wall. His stolen base pace slowed down significantly in the minors this year compared to previous seasons, so you now have to wonder what exactly he has the potential to contribute to fantasy teams. I’m not very optimistic here, especially playing his home games in the fourth worst park for left-handers this year.

The White Sox have two catchers on this list?! Edgar Quero was recalled first, but is now splitting time with Teel, discussed above. His plate discipline has been strong and everything here actually looks pretty good. But, he has yet to hit his first home run, and he sports a not-a-typo .042 ISO. That’s surprising given the 47% HardHit% and 109.8 MPH maxEV, but he has gone 166 at-bats without a barrel! That seems near impossible given the very solid HardHit% and maxEV numbers. Ah ha! It’s another pulled fly ball rate problem, as his is even worse than Domínguez at just 9.4%, as he ranks near the top of the fly ball Oppo% leaderboard. He’s not going to hit for much power at all if that keeps up.