Top 5 Prospects for 2015: Atlanta Braves
This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.
In a Nutshell: The rope that’s tying B.J Upton to the Braves’ center-field gig has to be thinly frayed at this point. As well, you have to figure the club isn’t 100% sold on sophomore-to-be Tommy La Stella and his ‘meh’ defense at second base.
1. Jose Peraza, 2B/SS: This young Venezuelan’s game took a big step forward in the second half of 2013 and he earned the No. 3 ranking on the Braves’ pre-2014 prospect list at FanGraphs. The middle infielder’s strong play continued into 2014 and he is now the best prospect in the system and could push incumbent second baseman Tommy LaStella (a rookie himself in ’14) to more of a part-time role. Peraza, 20, has a chance to develop into a top-of-the-order threat with a strong batting average and 30+ steals.
2. Christian Bethancourt, C: Considered one of the best defensive players in the minors, Bethancourt’s bat cannot compete — which is why he’s spent the past three seasons in Double-A and Triple-A. However, his strong work behind the plate could make him an excellent complement to the offensive-minded (but defensively modest) Evan Gattis — although neither player will ever put up much of an on-base percentage. Bethancourt, 23, will always be a more valuable “real life” baseball player than fantasy contributor due to his offensive shortcomings.
3. Kyle Kubitza, 3B: Incumbent third baseman Chris Johnson is coming off of a poor season that saw him produce a .292 on-base percentage and little power, thanks in part to BB-K ratio of 23-159. However, he’s signed to an ill-advised three-year contract (see the comment below about the firing of the general manager), and that could allow Kubitza to earn some playing time at the hot corner while his athleticism should allow him to sub at a few other positions. Although he doesn’t have prototypical “third base power,” the young infielder gets on base at a high rate, has above-average base running acumen and some defensive skills.
4. Kyle Wren, OF: The firing of former Braves GM Frank Wren must have lifted off a bit of the weight from the shoulders of son Kyle. This 2013 8th round pick can now go about his business with a little less attention. In just his first full pro season, the Florida native reached Double-A. He may open the 2015 season back at that level but he’s one of the most promising outfield prospects in the system despite his lack of power. He plays solid defense and offers stolen-base prowess, which could make him a solid fourth outfielder (and possibly more valuable than the seriously overpaid B.J. Upton).
5. Cody Martin, RHP: The fifth spot on this list came down to Martin or Jason Hursh but the former’s Triple-A experience gave him the edge — as did his potentially plus cutter. The right-hander throws a fringe fastball but the cutter — complemented by his three other offerings — gives him more than enough weapons (especially when aided by his solid command) to settle in as a No. 4 starter in the Braves’ rotation. My biggest concern with the 25-year-old Martin is his fly-ball tendency.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
How safe is it to assume Jose Peraza will earn an everyday job over the next few seasons? Do you think he will play a big role in 2015 and will his bat/speed translate to the big leagues in your opinion? Got a minor league dynasty draft coming up and am thinking about taking Peraza with a first round pick due to his bat/speed combo. Thanks!
Probably a question for Braves fans… is La Stella’s D “meh” or worse? As in “bad.”
In reality meh, but so is his bat. We thought his D was the second coming of christ after Uggla though…
His range is lacking, but he’s not awful out there. It’s just that he doesn’t hit for any power – even gap power, and doesn’t do anything particularly well except make contact. Steamer projects him at 1.1 WAR over 450 PAs, and I Wouldn’t be surprised to see him post 1.5-2 WAR/600 PAs.
His limited power and average glove puts a pretty low ceiling on him. But his ability not to strike out puts a high floor on him as well.
The ceiling for his defense is league average, so in order to stick at 2B, he’s going to have to hit more consistently than he did in 2013. Last year, it seemed like in the second half, opposing pitchers figured him out. However, he may be one of the players who benefits most from a new hitting coach — it seemed like when he was slumping in the second half, Walker had him swinging at everything and making a lot of weak contact. I wouldn’t write him off just yet, but he’s definitely looking over his shoulder at Peraza.
Decent hands, but his range is lacking. He’s always busting his tail, though, and at times seemed like the only guy on the team that seemed to understand what the strike-zone was.
re: Cody Martin
Fly ball pitchers may actually not have it all that bad in Atlanta. If Heyward, Upton, and Upton are still manning the OF positions in 2015, they should turn a lot of fly balls into outs. Also helpful, when Martin would face a platoon disadvantage, the ball would probably be most likely to head towards Jason Heyward. I think he probably starts the season as the 4th or 5th starter, as long as Spring Training isn’t a complete failure.
And I think La Stella has until Peraza shows he’s ready. La Stella really isn’t bad as a place holder, but I don’t think anyone in the organization expects him to hold off Peraza long-term. Also, calling up Peraza would send La Stella to the bench, which should be a huge upgrade for the Braves. Goodbye Ramiro Pena, Tyler Pastornicky, and Phil Gosselin.
I agree; the Ted is a pretty comfortable place for fly-ball pitchers. Julio Teheran is a rather extreme fly ball pitcher who has had a lot of success at Turner Field.
Better change this list, the attack on the House of Wrens has continued
Everywren must go!