Top-200 Hitter Rankings
After diving into the top-100 hitters, I ranked the next 100. The talent in this group is so flat that a change of 50 projected plate appearances could move a batter 50 spots in the rankings. There will be tons of disagreements and I completely understand. I kept moving guys around until the last minute.
When I did the first list, I went about 120 deep into the projections to see if anyone popped, but I missed a couple who need a plate appearance boost. For this reason, I included all the hitters this time. Besides the actual ranks, I have explained some of the up and down rankings after the table. Also, I had a tough time setting a plate appearance total for some players, so some tiered ranks.
Notes:
- The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
- I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
- No catchers were ranked (article coming soon).
- I did NOT take any position scarcity into account (besides catchers). There hasn’t been any for at least a dozen years, so I don’t expect any this season.
- I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
- Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.
Name PA AVG Rank OBP Rank Points (ESPN) PA Talent Aaron Judge 650 1 2 7 Jose Ramirez 660 2 3 1 Kyle Tucker 620 3 5 4 Down Trea Turner 680 4 14 16 Ronald Acuña Jr. 610 5 4 35 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 680 6 8 3 Julio Rodriguez 650 7 9 30 Down Shohei Ohtani 650 8 7 18 Juan Soto 660 9 1 2 Bo Bichette 670 10 19 21 Down Pete Alonso 660 11 12 5 Freddie Freeman 680 12 10 6 Yordan Alvarez 680 13 11 8 Mookie Betts 650 14 15 14 Manny Machado 660 15 17 10 Bobby Witt Jr. 640 16 22 29 Down Fernando Tatis Jr. 530 17 6 40 Down Rafael Devers 660 18 21 12 Paul Goldschmidt 660 19 16 15 Mike Trout 600 20 13 24 Austin Riley 680 21 23 19 Matt Olson 680 22 18 11 Randy Arozarena 640 23 24 58 Francisco Lindor 680 24 25 22 Michael Harris II 580 25 27 49 Down Marcus Semien 680 26 30 27 Jose Altuve 640 27 26 25 Kyle Schwarber 630 28 20 41 Nolan Arenado 640 29 36 9 George Springer 590 30 29 32 Luis Robert Jr. 550 31 34 43 Down Adolis García 650 32 40 75 Down Eloy Jiménez 610 33 68 40 Up Up Corey Seager 640 34 35 17 Andrés Giménez 610 35 41 82 Starling Marte 550 36 43 106 Teoscar Hernández 600 37 50 73 Oneil Cruz 550 38 31 87 Down Christopher Morel 650 39 150 217 Up Ozzie Albies 610 40 61 37 Gunnar Henderson 580 41 32 63 Dansby Swanson 650 42 45 67 Down Trevor Story 620 43 44 94 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 525 44 37 110 Down Jake McCarthy 550 45 42 108 Down Bryan Reynolds 650 46 39 42 Alex Bregman 650 47 28 13 Tim Anderson 580 48 88 128 Cedric Mullins II 580 49 33 61 Down Gleyber Torres 600 50 63 67 Wander Franco 600 51 70 26 Kyle Stowers 650 52 216 232 Up Xander Bogaerts 630 53 46 36 Willy Adames 630 54 66 83 Taylor Ward 630 55 75 80 Up Up José Abreu 640 56 52 31 Carlos Correa 620 57 48 34 Nathaniel Lowe 630 58 54 54 Tyler O’Neill 530 59 69 136 Up Ryan Mountcastle 620 60 84 66 Amed Rosario 630 61 108 90 Tommy Edman 610 62 55 77 Down Down Brandon Lowe 580 63 56 72 Vinnie Pasquantino 580 64 51 19 Seiya Suzuki 600 65 60 87 Byron Buxton 480 66 81 136 Anthony Santander 610 67 67 30 Down Corbin Carroll 500 68 53 130 Christian Yelich 650 69 38 112 Mitch Haniger 610 70 104 115 Up Christian Walker 630 71 49 35 Down Rhys Hoskins 640 72 47 50 Steven Kwan 620 73 76 47 Jeremy Peña 610 74 103 128 Jorge Polanco 600 75 78 55 Josh Jung 600 76 153 168 Up Ty France 630 77 83 46 Nico Hoerner 610 78 94 64 Matt Chapman 640 79 64 91 Javier Báez 600 80 111 148 Down Ian Happ 640 81 77 85 Rowdy Tellez 570 82 80 44 Hunter Renfroe 550 83 92 75 Thairo Estrada 570 84 99 111 Josh Bell 610 85 72 33 Anthony Rizzo 570 86 59 58 Joey Meneses 610 87 137 98 Up Down Ke’Bryan Hayes 590 88 93 131 Oscar Colas 500 89 262 275 Up Brandon Nimmo 640 90 62 78 Oscar Gonzalez 550 91 139 74 Triston Casas 570 92 57 53 Down Oswaldo Cabrera 550 93 208 227 Up Giancarlo Stanton 510 94 85 105 Up Nick Castellanos 600 95 115 96 Jake Cronenworth 650 96 87 51 Eugenio Suárez 620 97 82 115 Seth Brown 580 98 102 118 Austin Hays 610 99 123 87 Jose Miranda 620 100 140 60 Up Lars Nootbaar 580 101 131 157 Up Alec Bohm 630 102 130 96 Vaughn Grissom 500 103 151 180 Up Riley Greene 600 104 97 138 Max Muncy 570 105 58 70 Lane Thomas 620 106 157 186 Up Andrew Vaughn 600 107 117 62 Bubba Thompson 450 108 271 346 Up Alex Verdugo 600 109 126 64 Ketel Marte 580 110 109 71 Jeff McNeil 600 111 120 56 Garrett Mitchell 500 112 183 277 Up Luis Arraez 610 113 116 56 C.J. Cron 610 114 71 47 Down Michael Conforto 570 115 89 106 Jonathan India 600 116 96 142 Cody Bellinger 540 117 121 146 Kris Bryant 550 118 79 86 Down Jose Siri 480 119 147 254 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 530 120 160 109 Jean Segura 550 121 149 133 Brandon Drury 560 122 168 126 Jurickson Profar 600 123 113 93 Tommy Pham 570 124 119 184 Trent Grisham 550 125 114 172 Yandy Díaz 550 126 86 52 Down Andrew Benintendi 540 127 145 123 Randal Grichuk 500 128 190 143 Luis Garcia 500 129 192 144 Luis Urías 570 130 124 121 Mike Yastrzemski 570 131 134 157 Austin Meadows 500 132 138 120 Luis Rengifo 560 133 217 175 Up Ramón Laureano 500 134 90 167 Down Avisaíl García 560 135 180 195 Yoán Moncada 590 136 142 170 Dylan Carlson 540 137 143 149 Joc Pederson 480 138 146 160 Bryson Stott 510 139 167 177 Marcell Ozuna 475 140 178 169 Up Chris Taylor 550 141 152 217 Chas McCormick 530 142 223 241 Up Jack Suwinski 500 143 221 262 Up Ha-Seong Kim 530 144 173 161 Mark Canha 550 145 106 154 Down Trey Mancini 580 146 166 152 Justin Turner 520 147 154 117 Wilmer Flores 550 148 171 103 CJ Abrams 500 149 105 141 Down Down Luke Voit 510 150 158 201 Manuel Margot 480 151 155 149 Down Harrison Bader 450 152 110 162 Down Gavin Lux 500 153 127 125 Down Josh Rojas 450 154 91 146 Down TJ Friedl 470 155 163 195 Eduardo Escobar 520 156 198 152 Jesse Winker 520 157 122 112 Jeimer Candelario 560 158 185 156 Gio Urshela 520 159 213 155 Tyrone Taylor 470 160 199 190 Josh Naylor 450 161 135 78 Down Ryan McMahon 590 162 100 124 Down J.D. Martinez 610 163 112 101 Down Kolten Wong 480 164 164 184 Down Elvis Andrus 500 165 218 193 Patrick Wisdom 460 166 177 244 Jorge Soler 500 167 169 190 Spencer Torkelson 540 168 161 164 Jake Fraley 410 169 162 222 Jorge Mateo 450 170 118 212 Down Down Bryan De La Cruz 470 171 226 215 Eric Hosmer 470 172 205 151 Brandon Crawford 520 173 193 174 Jonathan Schoop 540 174 238 180 Ramón Urías 520 175 203 193 Dylan Moore 380 176 165 287 DJ LeMahieu 510 177 159 145 Down Jarred Kelenic 440 178 201 223 J.P. Crawford 610 179 188 135 Anthony Rendon 450 180 107 67 Down Kerry Carpenter 390 181 211 209 Leody Taveras 450 182 219 239 Trayce Thompson 410 183 194 244 Garrett Cooper 520 184 195 199 Matt Mervis 390 185 207 188 Nick Gordon 440 186 234 234 Charlie Blackmon 540 187 179 119 Down Miguel Vargas 370 188 206 206 Brandon Belt 450 189 228 249 Up Enrique Hernández 530 190 215 166 Andrew McCutchen 450 191 133 140 Down Joey Votto 510 192 176 180 Santiago Espinal 470 193 227 178 Brendan Donovan 480 194 181 180 Harold Ramírez 450 195 245 197 Josh Donaldson 490 196 186 205 Miguel Rojas 520 197 244 176 Brendan Rodgers 610 198 148 81 Down Isaac Paredes 450 199 187 157 Max Kepler 450 200 170 138 Down Notes:
• Vaughn Grissom: Grissom’s playing time is tough to set. I see him with less than 100 PA (most of the season in the minors), 250 PA to 350 PA (bench bat), or near 600 PA (full-time).Those totals are entirely based on if the Braves do or don’t resign Dansby Swanson.
• Lane Thomas: The playing time will be way up for him. He leadoff in 31 of the last 32 games while hitting .244/.333/.390 during that time.
• C.J Cron (all the other current Rockies): They are tough to ever start on the road. Cron for instance has a 1.010 OPS in Colorado and a .671 OPS on the road. None of them are good enough to start on the road. The one exception might have been Kris Bryant, but now that he has plantar fasciitis (career killers for Chase Utley and Albert Pujols) so I’m staying away.
• Marcell Ozuna: There are a ton of issues surrounding Ozuna, but at the season’s end, he showed some decent signs of life (.321/.368/.585 in September). I’d not be surprised if he gets a shot to start the season, but gets relegated to the bench if he struggles any bit.
• CJ Abrams: I’m just not sure the 22-year-old is a major-league hitter (.604 OPS in 2022) and could spend some time in the minors.
• Harrison Bader: First, he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis, so I’m out (see Kris Bryant). Also, he hasn’t had over 500 PA in a season since 2017, so why should he start this season? I gave him a bit under his season high.
• Josh Naylor: The Guardians have pretty much come out and said Naylor will sit against lefties (.565 OPS vs LHP, .781 OPS vs RHP).
• Bryan De La Cruz: He has some solid skills starting with a 86th percentile Hard Hit% but dealt with a May forearm injury. Before the injury, he was hitting .325/.417/.475. Until September 1st, he struggled and just posted a .181/.211/.304 triple slash line. He finally got healthy in September when he hit .388/.419/.718.
• Eric Hosmer: I can’t get a read on his playing time at all. I could see the Red Sox going with him all season as the 1B/DH or he gets just 150 PA as a bench bat.
• DJ LeMahieu: He’s dealing with a messed up foot that will require surgery or he’ll try to play through it. Either way, I’m way down on him.
• Jarred Kelenic: I don’t buy he showed any improvement in September when all he faced were the A’s, Royals, Rangers, and Tigers pitching staffs. Editor & Tigers fan Note: RUDE!
• Anthony Rendon: I can’t trust he’ll be healthy. I’m fine missing out if he happens to rebound this season.
Here are several guys I had a tough time guessing their playing time. I added several options here to see how much they would go up or down depending on their projected role.
• Garrett Mitchell: The 24-year-old projects to be a nice power-speed threat but with a 41% K% in 68 PA. Projections have him around 400 PA, probably hedging for a demotion. I gave him a small PA bump but if he plays more, this ranking jumps.
PA: Rank
400: 183
450: 129
500: 107
550: 83
600: 55
650: 36• Jose Siri: He has had a problem staying healthy and has not been able to hit lefties (career .570 OPS vs LHP).
PA: Rank
450: 131
500: 110
550: 80
600: 52
650: 35• Christopher Morel: The Cubs just jacked him around by moving him up and down and in and out of their lineup. He is a really nice fantasy option if playing.
PA: Rank
450: 140
500: 117
550: 86
600: 57
650: 40• Oswaldo Cabrera: There seems to be a ton of Anthony Volpe hedging with the projections. I think the Yankees shortstop job is Cabrera’s or he’s on the bench or in the minors. I don’t see any 50/50 split.
PA: Rank
450: 145
500: 121
550: 95
600: 65
650: 42• Trayce Thompson: The Dodgers have a couple of open outfield spots and Thompson can fill one of those roles. Steamer Projections have him with 24 HR in 471 PA or prorated to 31 HR over 600 PA. It’s tough to find that kind of power going with an NFBC ADP of 511. James Outman could also be in play for one of these jobs.
PA: Rank
450: 158
500: 125
550: 105
600: 76
650: 51• Kyle Stowers: He has 25 HR power with a full season of at-bats with a non-negative batting average. Currently, he’s projected for the 5th highest OPS on the Orioles but some other bats (Cameron, McKenna, Mazara, and Cordero) might get a crack.
PA: Rank
450: 163
500: 127
550: 108
600: 77
650: 53• Luis Garcia: He has some split issues (.589 OPS vs LHP. .729 OPS vs RHP) so his playing time might be limited. As a 22-year-old, his power profile has some interesting age-similar comps.
Some good and some bad.
PA: Rank
450: 179
500: 135
550: 117
600: 89
650: 61• Leody Taveras: I think the 23-year-old gets the first shot at being the center fielder but he’s not been a replacement-level hitter (career .624 OPS). His range of outcomes seems all over the place.
PA: Rank
450: 195
500: 153
550: 125
600: 109
650: 82• Isaac Paredes: Since he is on the Rays, his playing time could be all over the place.
PA: Rank
450: 210
500: 173
550: 135
600: 118
650: 96Previous ranking articles with notes:
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
So are you thinking Kelenic is a totally bust? Avoid unless he’s basically free end of draft?
I just rolled with his projection … seemed reasonable.