Top 120 Starting Pitchers
For me, the end of the Super Bowl is the official start of the fantasy baseball season. Obviously, I never really take my attention away from baseball even after the World Series, but I’m definitely an outlier. There are plenty of big time baseball and football fans who close the book on the diamond for the pigskin come October (or even September if their fantasy team falls out and their favorite team doesn’t make the playoffs) only to return once football is done.
Well, it’s done!
With that, it’s time for a new SP ranking update. I’d be hinting at an update coming sooner than later, so I appreciate your patience. I’ve got a list running 120 deep with colored bars denoting some talent breaks. There is still a substantial Glob™ where the distinctions between pitchers become thinner. I don’t have an ironclad case for #80 over #106 the way I do #16 over #42. These are my preferences, though. I’m not leaning on The Glob™ to shirk accountability for my rankings, but it’d be foolish not to acknowledge how wide-open SP ranks become around 70 or so. In fact, there’s an upper tier Glob™ from around 35 to 79 and then the standard Glob™ from 80 until maybe even 150 or so, but I decided to cut it at 120.
I’ll have plenty more on pitcher rankings in the coming months, including lists with commentary on most (if not all) pitchers, lists for attacking The Glob™, my biggest buys, my biggest fades, and more! Justin and I will have a two-part positional preview pod on starting pitchers, each likely approaching two hours if I had to guess. But for now, enjoy this list and let me know what you think in the comments below.
I get Coors and all but damn, Marquez was basically degrom for 16 starts, with the peripherals to back it up. This ranking feels harsh IMO
That’s 16 starts, not exactly a massive sample. Remember, just bc he had the skills to support that run doesn’t mean that’s who he is going forward. He was deGrom for half a season and still only had a 3.77 ERA. His margin for error is severely curbed by Coors. My deeper thoughts on Marquez: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/are-we-repeating-a-2018-mistake/ — I’m not trying to be harsh Marquez, but rather realistic. I think he’s being rather overrated by the market at large as everyone gets drunk on that 2H.
Oh it’s totally not massive, but his stats over it weren’t just great they were otherworldly. I think it does point to some incredible skills. I’m sure there’s some reasons for first and half discrepancies, that people smarter than myself can uncover.
I don’t necessarily disagree on market being too high. I have him as a low cost keeper so won’t need to pay the price. But a bit more confident on his outlook
The discrepancy is that his fastball was trash and he didn’t maintain otherworldly secondaries to overcome it in the 1H. That’d be worrisome enough without Coors hanging overhead. The thing with Coors is that you can be good and still get burnt. I don’t doubt Marquez is talented, evidenced by his 34th ranking, but those pushing him top 20-25 are incurring a lot of risk, IMO
That’s fair. My hope as an owner is that the Ks limit some downside. Mid-high 3 era with big Ks can be a top 25 arm. Glad I can own him without paying the market price though, there certainly is risk.
I like him. Just adding my $0.02 as to why I am cautious. One thing I don’t ever see get mentioned about Marquez is that he hasn’t really figured out how to retire lefties. He’s death on righties – but even during his streak lefties hit him well – he supressed runs against lefties in Sept, but they still hit him to a .297/.333/.459 tune, which is similar to his 2018 full season line of .286/.343/.453 line and his career .284/.344/.444 line.
I was in on Marquez at the start of last season and was disappointed by his early season performance (so basically I joined you in Collette’s valley of disappointment). I was elated when he turned in that awesome second half, but I have to agree he seems to be getting overvalued by a large segment. I think your other article nails the logical concerns about Marquez: right now, there are comparable pitchers with similar ADPs (or later). The tier offers serious value, but the longer you can wait in that tier, the more likely you can get that value. Also, Charlie Morton deserves his due, which you’ve rightfully given him. Nice work.