Top 120 Starting Pitchers
For me, the end of the Super Bowl is the official start of the fantasy baseball season. Obviously, I never really take my attention away from baseball even after the World Series, but I’m definitely an outlier. There are plenty of big time baseball and football fans who close the book on the diamond for the pigskin come October (or even September if their fantasy team falls out and their favorite team doesn’t make the playoffs) only to return once football is done.
Well, it’s done!
With that, it’s time for a new SP ranking update. I’d be hinting at an update coming sooner than later, so I appreciate your patience. I’ve got a list running 120 deep with colored bars denoting some talent breaks. There is still a substantial Glob™ where the distinctions between pitchers become thinner. I don’t have an ironclad case for #80 over #106 the way I do #16 over #42. These are my preferences, though. I’m not leaning on The Glob™ to shirk accountability for my rankings, but it’d be foolish not to acknowledge how wide-open SP ranks become around 70 or so. In fact, there’s an upper tier Glob™ from around 35 to 79 and then the standard Glob™ from 80 until maybe even 150 or so, but I decided to cut it at 120.
I’ll have plenty more on pitcher rankings in the coming months, including lists with commentary on most (if not all) pitchers, lists for attacking The Glob™, my biggest buys, my biggest fades, and more! Justin and I will have a two-part positional preview pod on starting pitchers, each likely approaching two hours if I had to guess. But for now, enjoy this list and let me know what you think in the comments below.
I get Coors and all but damn, Marquez was basically degrom for 16 starts, with the peripherals to back it up. This ranking feels harsh IMO
That’s 16 starts, not exactly a massive sample. Remember, just bc he had the skills to support that run doesn’t mean that’s who he is going forward. He was deGrom for half a season and still only had a 3.77 ERA. His margin for error is severely curbed by Coors. My deeper thoughts on Marquez: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/are-we-repeating-a-2018-mistake/ — I’m not trying to be harsh Marquez, but rather realistic. I think he’s being rather overrated by the market at large as everyone gets drunk on that 2H.
Oh it’s totally not massive, but his stats over it weren’t just great they were otherworldly. I think it does point to some incredible skills. I’m sure there’s some reasons for first and half discrepancies, that people smarter than myself can uncover.
I don’t necessarily disagree on market being too high. I have him as a low cost keeper so won’t need to pay the price. But a bit more confident on his outlook
The discrepancy is that his fastball was trash and he didn’t maintain otherworldly secondaries to overcome it in the 1H. That’d be worrisome enough without Coors hanging overhead. The thing with Coors is that you can be good and still get burnt. I don’t doubt Marquez is talented, evidenced by his 34th ranking, but those pushing him top 20-25 are incurring a lot of risk, IMO
That’s fair. My hope as an owner is that the Ks limit some downside. Mid-high 3 era with big Ks can be a top 25 arm. Glad I can own him without paying the market price though, there certainly is risk.
I like him. Just adding my $0.02 as to why I am cautious. One thing I don’t ever see get mentioned about Marquez is that he hasn’t really figured out how to retire lefties. He’s death on righties – but even during his streak lefties hit him well – he supressed runs against lefties in Sept, but they still hit him to a .297/.333/.459 tune, which is similar to his 2018 full season line of .286/.343/.453 line and his career .284/.344/.444 line.
I was in on Marquez at the start of last season and was disappointed by his early season performance (so basically I joined you in Collette’s valley of disappointment). I was elated when he turned in that awesome second half, but I have to agree he seems to be getting overvalued by a large segment. I think your other article nails the logical concerns about Marquez: right now, there are comparable pitchers with similar ADPs (or later). The tier offers serious value, but the longer you can wait in that tier, the more likely you can get that value. Also, Charlie Morton deserves his due, which you’ve rightfully given him. Nice work.
E-Rod/Flaherty/Castillo > Mikolas/CMart
Thought Caleb Smith was worth a 120 spot over some of these guys, otherwise good list.
Hmm, he was 117 on my starting list and then got adjusted off (not down… OFF) so I dunno what happened there. I do like Caleb Smith, though.
How is that your one nit?
Could be a Marlins fan… if so, one has to find something to root for with that team and his name is Caleb Smith.
If you have Syndergaard in the top tier then you’re obviously taking the over on his IP projections. Are you really willing to take that risk over pitchers like Severino, Snell, and Carrasco?
Of course, bc it’s not really some major risk. There’s no world where they don’t have just as much risk of getting hurt. So I’ll take the higher skilled arm in Thor (at least as I see it) over them. The four are super-close so I don’t begrudge those opting for one of the other 3, but I don’t think it’s some major gamble to put Thor atop that list.
Sounds reasonable enough to me. I agree that Syndergaard possesses the top arm talent of the bunch.
Do you have a favorite out of the quartet?
Honestly, not really. Severino and Carrasco have the obvious advantages of playing for teams likely to win 90 games so that helps. Syndergaard plays in the best park of the bunch and gets to face a couple pitchers every night, along with having the aforementioned best arm talent. Snell just had a monster breakout and was more effective than everyone else. You probably can’t go wrong with any selection.
I own both Severino and Syndergaard and am quite happy about it. You just seem to be the high man on Thor which piqued my interest. Consensus seems to have him 8-10 spots lower, certainly due to the uncertainty about his innings.
Not that it makes a huge difference, but are the shaded cells the end of the previous tier or the start of the next one?
I have the same question. I think it would be an interesting set of articles as well.
Syndergaard vs Snell vs Kershaw for example.
Good Q. It *starts* the next tier.
Why not label the tiers?
I do in-season, but the names I use for them don’t make as much sense before the season. Not trying to be snarky, but is it much different labeling the with the color vs. naming them?
I think it is pretty different. I don’t think you would get a single question if you labeled them. For every question there are probably ten confused people that don’t make a comment.
I doubt it, tbh. Like I said, I label them in-season, but those in-season titles don’t really work for a preseason ranking. What confusion is cleared up by labeling them Tier 1, Tier 2, etc… vs. just the colored bars?
So Snell is the same as those pitchers, but also starts a different tier?
Put another way – there are accessibility guidelines set by professional organizations that look at this exact type of thing and color is not a valid way to convey meaning. Not only should you use headings, but meaningful alt text should accompany it. I’m not the formatting police – I am just trying to help. I didn’t start the comment string or anything. Thanks for the rankings.
Man, I really want to see your projections for Eovaldi and Bieber now!
I don’t do my own projections but I’m not quite as sold on Bieber and his Pineda-esque profile of being far too hittable in lieu of walks as many others. K-BB is great but it doesn’t guarantee success when you’re that hittable.
I feel the same way, but I’d definitely have him lower down like the Lucchesi area as his HR/9 prevents me from thinking he’ll post an ERA lower than the high 3’s, and likely sitting in the low 4’s.
Is it fair to say, given the choice, that you favor anchoring your teams with a few stud SP?
I don’t see how you can rank Bumgarner ahead of Corbin.
These aren’t just a ranking of what happened last year.
Bumgarner has never had a season as good as Corbin’s 2018 though. He’s never achieved that level in terms of FIP, K-BB%, SwSTR%, zone contact, WAR, etc.
Even if you were to prognosticate that Bumgarner has a career year (and I don’t see how you could do that), it’s still possible that he underperforms Corbin if Corbin simply repeats his 2018 (tall order but this speaks to Corbin’s objectively higher ceiling as demonstrated).
Also, Corbin’s peripherals were even more outrageous when he had the velocity on his fastball. 1.91 FIP in the 2nd half with the velocity slowly climbing back.
Of course, it’s hard to doubt a guy like Bumgarner but I think the skill decline necessary for Corbin, relative to 2018, would be too hard to predict. It would have to be an injury or something (this analysis also omits consideration towards the wins category which clearly would favor Corbin as well).
Corbin was no doubt great last year, but it’s a clear outlier/career year season, too. He’s never done anything close to that, so should we really be betting 100% on it sticking. Yes, there were some changes, but it wasn’t the first year that he dove headfirst into SL usage (38% in ’17, 41% in ’18).
His top year bests MadBum’s (though at some point, the ticking off of stats becomes redundant as a way of trying to make it look better than it is vs. just acknowledging that it was better than any single season Bum’s had), but MadBum has five 4+ win seasons while Corbin hasn’t topped 3.5 outside of last year so it feels like a health dose of recency bias to lean entirely on ’18 as the reason to favor Corbin.
I do agree on the wins piece favoring Corbin in any projection, but I’m also generally suspect on big arms in year 1 of a new mega-deal with their new team. It doesn’t always go south, but I generally avoid that group of guys as there’s often a tax because they’re coming off a great season and expected to be better in their new spot.
I feel 23 is enough to credit Corbin for his big season without going overboard. He may cost more at the draft table, but I’m fine not ending up with him if the only way to do so is pay full price on his career year.
I don’t see how you give Cole so much credit ranking all the way up at 6, but put Corbin down at 23. Both made significant changes in their pitch usages and had outlier seasons compared to earlier in their careers. But Cole gets credit that his will continue and Corbin doesn’t, even though Corbin was the better of the two last season. Seems illogical.
Corbin wasn’t the better of the 2 last year. Cole pitched 200.1 innings and Corbin pitched 200. Cole did made one less start. Cole had a K/9 of 12.40 and Corbin had a K/9 of 11.07. They both finished with the exact same WAR and Cole did it against better lineups with a DH. Not to mention, Cole is also younger than Corbin and has had more past success. It’s interesting that you’re using Cole as a comparison when he’s got Taillon at 15 over Corbin. Although, I think everyone is anticipating Taillon becoming a top 10-15 ace this year.
Does WAR not take opposition into account?
Paul!! My man! Biebs at 52! Maybe you’re finally coming around to my man crush! I love his fip/xfip/sierra and that babip is sure to come down. You heard it here first Bieber will be in the top30 of this list by 2019 year’s end!
Bieber has great peripherals, but I am worried about how much hard contact is made on him. His statcast page has a concerning amount of blue on it…
Haha, I don’t know if I’m coming around. I’m still pretty low compared to the industry, but I see some issues beyond the K-BB%. I like you taking a stand on your guy, but I will say you have company calling him a top 30 guy. There’s some real heat for Biebs!
I’ll take the under on that. Success comes easiest the first time around.
He is currently the 40ish starting pitcher going off the board, in my favorite tier: Bieber, Pivetta, Heaney, Glasnow, James, Ryu tier because I am a glutton for punishment.
Kyle Hendricks 29, did not expect that. There must be some expectation of a K% rebound for that ranking? Was surprised at the Strasburg and Wheeler rankings too, figured those 2 would be flip flopped based on the pods.
Where is Kikuchi?
Ctrl-F Kikuchi, he’s in there!
58 aka Upper Tier Blob
Glob™, but yes
While a ranking of 6th is hardly an insult, I think that you undersell the value of Kluber’s reliability a little. And I also think you slightly short Greinke. But then, if you (and others) rate these two guys this way, hey, it will be easier for me to get them in my leagues at a cheaper price/lower draft pick.
And interesting that you seem pretty bullish on Zach Wheeler. If your ratings for Mets pitching are borne out, wow, the Mets could be good? Is that allowed?
I’ve loved Kluber since his ’13 breakout, but his poor fastball cost him a couple spots as we move into his mid-30s. Still an ace, still gonna take him in the 2nd round if he’s available and my other 5 are gone, but had to bump him down a tad off where I usually have him
Personally I think this will end up being the year to sell off Greinke shares. If his velocity diminishes any more, and some K’s go along with it, he could end up being a SP4. Projection systems are understandably bearish and wary that he is a low 3’s ERA pitcher any more.
Yes, I’ve agonized on Greinke’s ranking the last 2-3 seasons, most of all this year. He just keeps performing, but will the bottom fall out or do we get a soft decline?
I’d rather see Greinke succeed for someone else than fail on my team. I’ll not be left with him on my roster the same way I had Lincecum when he turned useless overnight. All the signs were there with Lincecum so as a matter of principle I ignore pitchers showing those trends.
We all know Greinke gonna be throwing 79 in spring training and talking about how he most of lost it.
LOL, right? Already excited for that!
No, the Mets are not allowed to be good.
That is why they do these. I personally feel as if the ranking on Kluber is a bit aggressive!
Stripling ranking seems high given that he is not guaranteed the 5th starter slot for LAD
Understood… Dodgeritis is annoying. It’s a 6-month season, though, and I love Strip’s skills, so I think he’ll finagle his way into another 120+ IP and that’s enough to be a top 40 guy. You don’t have to take him as high as I have him, but I ranked him there to show how much I believe in his profile
This is good. Marcus Stroman responds well to being underrated! Let’s hope the innings come back – even if the K-rate is just OK, and the infield defense is below average.
Wow, Clevinger above Paxton. Would love to hear the rationale. I presume you think Clev has some upside left that maybe Paxton does not moving to Yankee Stadium?
50 innings is worth a lot depending on format.
Thing is, Paxtons move is good for his value, as he doesn’t have to hit against the Yankees, and the AL East outside of the Yankees is surprisingly awful vs lefties.
This is the most aggressive ranking of Darvish and Nelson I’ve seen. You must be buying into health and higher innings pitched.
Correct. I’m often willing to bet on the skillset and let the health chips fall where they may and that was even before Jeff Zimmerman’s work last year suggesting that there isn’t much injury proneness across the league (particularly when it’s different injuries). I don’t have to take Darvish & Nelson at that spot to get ’em, but I view them that highly.
hey Paul, where does The Glob start for AL-only leagues?
Rodon sitting in the 80’s? I am buying him. His slider is the out pitch and if he reduces that 4 seamer he will pick up K’s and that is the only thing keeping him from a top 50 spot.
K-BB% of 6.9 yikes!
Nice!
Is this list based on any particular scoring format? Asking for a guy playing Ottoneu 🙂
Y Chirinos ? Did he just miss the cut ?
If I had to guess, Paul would rank Chirinos on talent but role is tough to peg, the Rays are going to run Snell, Morton, and Glasnow out as traditional SPs, and then run 2 opener games per time through the rotation. The innings-eaters for the opener games will likely be among Yarbrough, Chirinos, Beeks, and when they’re healthy enough, De Leon and Honeywell, assuming I’m not forgetting even more contenders. That’s a bit of risk, Chirinos has to pitch quite well just to consistently hold onto a 4-5 IP post-opener slot in the rotation.
Surprised nobody has said anything about Bauer. He was elite last year until the non-throwing injury.
If I’m staring at:
10 Clayton Kershaw LAD
11 Carlos Carrasco CLE
12 Luis Severino NYY
13 Trevor Bauer CLE
I think I’m always taking Bauer out of that group.
1 million percent this. No chance I don’t take Bauer. Adp has him a bit higher tho
Except Bauer is first by ADP – Kersh 11, Carrasco 12, Sevvy 10, Bauer 9
What do you see as the odds of Sevvy getting back to 2nd-half 2017/1st-half 2018, vs. end of 2018?
Over 200 IP , he had a low-2s ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. We’re talking top-3-in-baseball stats over a full season’s worth of innings.
And then he freaking blew up in the second half last year. What’s the real Sevvy?
Even in the poor second half he still recorded a 10.86 K/9 vs a 2.00 BB/9 with a 3.37 FIP/3.06 xFIP. A .379 BABIP and 63 LOB% over the same time span seem very unlikely to repeat. I would just roll with the projections for him and trust the luck to even out over a full season.
Eflin seems very low for someone who had a quiet skills breakout last season; the gap between him and Pivetta is startling to me.
No Leake?!! ;D Great list, Paul, thanks for putting it together.
Fuuucckkk pitchers get scary after #7
Way too low on Chris Archer, way too high on Kyle Hendricks and Yu Darvish (and I’m a Cubs fan).
Chris Archer a little underrated here i totally agree.
Way too low??? How many 4.00+ ERA/middling-to-poor WHIP seasons does Archer have to have before you start pushing back?
Think of Archer as that guy who everyone thought of as an ace as early as two years ago, but is now just a guy pitching on the under-the-radar Pirates in the NL. If you’re still a fan of Archer, try to nab him as a bargain. Unfortunately, his name value probably will get him taken too early, and Paul’s ranking at #40 is looking a tad generous for a ‘prove it’ upcoming season.
Thank for you another list of pitchers that Twins other-worldly stud prospect Wander Javier will hit Statcast-breaking homers off of.
Joe Musgrove at 47. I’m down for that. I wonder if Trevor Williams outperforms his perripherals again. He was 35th in WAR last year and 13th in ERA. Is he just a huge regression candidate or is it because of the low strikeout totals and innings?
As good as Walker Buehler has been in just a short period of time, he couldn’t crack the top 10 on this list? Wow! He’ll eventually surpass Kershaw and a few others to get there but what an awesome top 10 of pitchers here!
Are you really that high on Mike Clevinger? Second tier pitcher? Over guys like Paxton/Strasburg?
I am betting it’s an innings/youth/health thing.
200-inning season followed up his ’17 breakout. What do Pax/Stras do better than Clevdog?
I’m in auction leagues and LOVE bringing up Strausburg . Get that money off the table. Names don’t make teams, production does. If you constantly are injured, you can’t help me win my league. Also, if I get Strausburg, I either have to back him up or hope on a good pickup once he hits the DL. Thus adding more money to the price tag of drafting Strausburg or taking a chance of getting hurt with some pickup pitcher. I agree 100% on Clevinger Paul.
Bold Merrill Kelly call.
I had to look this guy up. I’m impressed that he’s beat out such luminaries as Roark, Cobb and Harvey without pitching a single MLB inning as of yet. This looks like a Mikolas Gamble to me… what do expect of him, Paul (and/or Brad)?
Paul, I like that you put Taillon up at 15. The lists I’ve seen haven’t made an adjustment from what Steamer, etc., don’t know… that he was on a completely different level once he brought in his slider.
Hey Paul,
Great rankings, looking forward to some commentary for each at a later date.
I’ve got a Keeper Question for you and others to chew on…I’m in a 12 Team H2H Points League, Keeper for 3 years, then re-draft. We get penalized by 5 rounds if player being kept was drafted in round 20-25 the year before, etc. and 25th round applies if the player is a FA pick-up. We only keep 3 players, here are my potentials, looking for some insight. Soto and Buehler are no brainers for me, but I cannot decide on my 3rd…leaning Bregman or Bauer
Soto – 25th
Buehler – 25th
Flaherty – 25th
Nola – 6th
Bauer – 11th
Bregman – 4th
Harper and Freeman were 1st and 2nd, so I won’t be keeping either of them, thanks in advance!
Not Paul, but I would keep Bauer here. He looks to have less risk than Flaherty (sophomore slump possibility) and he’s priced nicely.
Not sure exactly who he must leapfrog but hard to see Severino being only #12 here. Yes, he had a notable cold stretch this past season, but guy is still learning to pitch and was awfully good the past two years.
I would definitely take him over Syndergaard who is overrated here (never pitched 200 IP, always dealing with some sort of injury), and probably Kershaw and Carrasco as well. Hell, I don’t see why Cole is 5 and Sevvy 12. Aside from the ridiculous start to Cole’s season, how much better was he than Sevvy? And we have back to back season’s like this from Sevvy and just the one from Cole.
What’s the logic on Wheeler ahead of berrios and flaherty? Is his second half the likely outcome?
The logic? Phrasing it that way seems like you believe those 2 are well above Wheeler so I’d have to ask for the case of either/both over Wheeler?
Flaherty has 150 good innings (and only 2 pitches). Berrios & Wheeler have had the same skills since ’16 with Wheeler reaching the higher peak of the two with his excellent ’18.
Wheeler has the deeper arsenal and is the more advanced of the trio, hence he’s my preference.
Quick link comment: Nick Kingham is linking to Nick King and Brandon Woodruff is linking to Brandon Wood.
Seems like the key takeaway from your rankings is don’t believe in 1 season (Snell, Bauer, Corbin). I can’t say I disagree, however I was basically all in on Snell and Bauer last season, so I guess I for one buy those breakouts, so I would be closer to the ADP of those pitchers (8 &9) which isn’t a huge difference I’d guess, however it means you’d have to spend a late second, or early third round pick to get either, thus you’d likely be priced out. I am curious to see how ADP changes as more leagues pop off, as their adp is a bit different on fantrax, which has likely run more leagues this year.
You do however, do it the other way as well with quite high rankings on Kershaw, Bumgarner, and Price. I can somewhat buy a bounce back for Bumgarner even though his skills have likely regressed, and even bad Kershaw is ok, but I can’t stomach paying that high for Kershaw. I feel the same about Kluber as I do about Kershaw last year, as it feels like this finally is the year it all falls apart.
I’m not sure I’d say “don’t believe in 1 season” as they’re ranked 9, 13, and 23 which is pretty high, IMO. Those feel like fair rankings, IMO. I realize they’re 8, 9, and 15 in NFBC ADP so I’m a little lower, but I’m not aggressively against them.
Paul, thanks for this list, and thanks to everyone for the interesting conversation in the comments. It’s gotten me thinking about the draft for my main league coming up in March. Its a keeper league and we’re resetting it this year so it’s basically an initial draft. I’m wondering how folks would revise this list for a keeper or dynasty format.
In those formats, you obviously get more value the longer your players perform at a high level. So, I’m thinking about my ranking, and realize that I’ve been looking at 30 years old as a pretty hard benchmark on my first several picks. Seems that players tend to perform at their peak between 26-32 years old (give or take) and considerably fewer play at elite levels going into 33 and beyond (there are a few obvious outliers).
I’m putting together my rankings and will be giving an edge to guys who are younger – for example, putting Nola (25 years old) and Snell (26) over Garrit Cole(28). But I’m on the fence about guys like Severino and Buehler (relative to Cole). And I’m not planning to draft Scherzer (34) or Verlander (36) over any of those guys.
I suppose some of it comes down to overall strategy- i.e. win now vs stock up for long term value. IE older elite guys will provide enough short term value at a certain rank in the draft. But I’m wondering whether anyone had any good rules of thumb for age as it relates to regression on performance.
Am I accurate in my 26-32ish sweet spot? Do hitters tend to outlast pitchers (or vice versa)? How much should one devalue 30 years old + pitchers like Paxton, Sale, deGrom, Carrasco, etc? What are the chances they’ll be the next Scherzer/Verlander? Are there certain characteristics that will help them maintain dominance longer?
People forget Wacha was having a breakout before pulling his oblique. 8-1 w 2.47 ERA and 1.11 whip. After straining oblique he gave up 12 runs in 7 innings trying to throw threw it before getting shutdown. He’s a great late target imo
I don’t forget. I love Wacha and refuse to quit him!
I was targeting him yday in a league I was in, was going to reach like 5 rounds early, and some guy drafted him at 160 overall! Was that you? Bieber, Reyes, Keuchel, James, Eovaldi, Ryu, Hill etc were still on board. Now I like him more than a few of those guys, but that felt a bit early lol.
also through it.
Hi Paul, your rankings give me faith in my own rankings as most of them are very close. My question/comment in reference to the top three pitchers. Using the steamer and depth charts projections for SGP,, I have them rated Sale, Scherzer and DeGrom. ATC projections flip it to Scherzer and Sale then DeGrom. My comment is just an intuitive feeling about Sale’s twice on the DL shoulder issue last year. Noting your rankings, you bump him down two positions. The injury last year makes me tend to agree with you. I am curious how many innings you expect Sale to pitch (and whether my 150ish healthy innings is a far too conservative projection?
Curious where Touki would sit.
Nowhere for Lance, outside top 120 for Touki
“But for now, enjoy this list and let me know what you think in the comments below.”
What do I think ? This is a list to use if you want to lose. Hope many in my league find it and use it.
So savage, bruh! You went sicko mode.
How many hard-throwing SPs are the Pirates going to ruin by forcing them to throw low? In the latest episode, Glasnow goes to the Rays, immediately induces more flyballs and his control improves dramatically. #firehuntington