Top 100 Spring Hitters by OPS

As we know, spring stats are fluky and small samply. Usually any crazy production is statistical noise, but sometimes there is signal hiding in the weeds. Next week, I’ll apply a technique that can thin the herd by providing a short list of players who might be on the verge of a breakout.

For now, here is a manually compiled, sortable leaderboard of the top 100 spring hitters with over 20 at bats. Remember, apply every caveat imaginable. The BABIP column does not include sacrifices, so it could be a little off. The data I exported did not include that stat.

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	AB	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
Andrew McCutchen	CF	PIT	25	3	0.560	0.593	1.000	1.593	0.611
Chris Davis	1B	BAL	22	3	0.500	0.560	1.000	1.560	0.533
Mike Moustakas	3B	KC	35	4	0.486	0.558	0.943	1.501	0.481
Russell Martin	C	PIT	21	4	0.381	0.458	1.000	1.458	0.308
Francisco Cervelli	C	NYY	25	3	0.480	0.519	0.880	1.399	0.500
Roger Bernadina	LF	CIN	25	1	0.440	0.588	0.800	1.388	0.500
Brandon Moss	1B	OAK	28	3	0.464	0.531	0.857	1.388	0.556
Steve Clevenger	C	BAL	22	1	0.545	0.600	0.773	1.373	0.579
Robinson Cano	2B	SEA	23		0.609	0.654	0.696	1.350	0.636
Bryce Brentz	RF	BOS	22	3	0.409	0.480	0.818	1.298	0.500
Yangervis Solarte	2B	NYY	29	2	0.517	0.563	0.724	1.287	0.565
Jerry Sands	LF	TB	27	3	0.370	0.414	0.852	1.266	0.438
Austin Jackson	CF	DET	32	1	0.469	0.514	0.750	1.264	0.519
Chris Heisey	LF	CIN	38	5	0.368	0.368	0.895	1.263	0.333
Brad Miller	SS	SEA	30	3	0.367	0.441	0.800	1.241	0.421
Steven Souza	SS	WAS	31	3	0.355	0.429	0.806	1.235	0.333
A.J. Pollock	CF	ARI	40	1	0.425	0.477	0.750	1.227	0.500
Jose Bautista	RF	TOR	30	3	0.367	0.459	0.767	1.226	0.421
Brandon Hicks	SS	SF	30	1	0.400	0.472	0.733	1.205	0.524
Anthony Rizzo	1B	CHC	28	2	0.393	0.452	0.750	1.202	0.409
Alex Gonzalez	SS	BAL	23	2	0.435	0.458	0.739	1.197	0.421
Martin Prado	3B	ARI	40	1	0.475	0.488	0.700	1.188	0.514
Zoilo Almonte	LF	NYY	24	1	0.458	0.480	0.708	1.188	0.476
Kolten Wong	2B	STL	33	2	0.394	0.459	0.727	1.186	0.458
Neftali Soto	C	CIN	33	2	0.424	0.424	0.758	1.182	0.400
Marc Krauss	LF	HOU	26	2	0.385	0.407	0.769	1.176	0.533
Dustin Ackley	CF	SEA	37	1	0.432	0.462	0.703	1.165	0.500
Danny Santana	SS	MIN	23		0.391	0.462	0.696	1.158	0.429
Derek Norris	C	OAK	25	2	0.400	0.423	0.720	1.143	0.381
Nick Markakis	RF	BAL	25		0.440	0.462	0.680	1.142	0.478
Stephen Vogt	C	OAK	29	1	0.414	0.485	0.655	1.140	0.440
Matt Long	RF	LAA	40	1	0.425	0.465	0.675	1.140	0.457
Nick Castellanos	3B	DET	41	2	0.415	0.432	0.707	1.139	0.417
Miguel Cabrera	1B	DET	32	2	0.406	0.513	0.625	1.138	0.423
Marwin Gonzalez	SS	HOU	28		0.464	0.448	0.679	1.127	0.500
Chris Colabello	1B	MIN	26	1	0.385	0.500	0.615	1.115	0.474
Zach Walters	SS	WAS	28	1	0.393	0.469	0.643	1.112	0.500
Mike Trout	CF	LAA	35	2	0.371	0.421	0.686	1.107	0.379
Tim Wheeler	CF	COL	28	2	0.321	0.424	0.679	1.103	0.368
Chris Iannetta	C	LAA	21	1	0.333	0.483	0.619	1.102	0.333
Josh Harrison	2B	PIT	22	1	0.364	0.417	0.682	1.099	0.438
James Loney	1B	TB	22	1	0.409	0.462	0.636	1.098	0.444
Dan Johnson	1B	TOR	24	3	0.333	0.346	0.750	1.096	0.313
Hunter Pence	RF	SF	36	4	0.306	0.342	0.750	1.092	0.333
Justin Ruggiano	LF	CHC	24	2	0.375	0.423	0.667	1.090	0.412
Jarrod Dyson	CF	KC	25	1	0.360	0.529	0.560	1.089	0.381
Skip Schumaker	LF	CIN	30	1	0.433	0.486	0.600	1.086	0.444
Salvador Perez	C	KC	33	2	0.424	0.417	0.667	1.084	0.462
Adam Lind	1B	TOR	27	1	0.370	0.414	0.667	1.081	0.450
Elliot Johnson	2B	CLE	33	2	0.364	0.382	0.697	1.079	0.455
Michael Choice	CF	TEX	37	2	0.378	0.395	0.676	1.071	0.429
Paul Janish	SS	COL	31	1	0.452	0.485	0.581	1.066	0.464
Tommy Medica	1B	SD	48	2	0.396	0.420	0.646	1.066	0.415
Jonathan Schoop	2B	BAL	30	1	0.400	0.424	0.633	1.057	0.550
Stephen Piscotty	3B	STL	26	1	0.346	0.438	0.615	1.053	0.348
Jeremy Moore	RF	TB	28	3	0.286	0.333	0.714	1.047	0.313
Dan Uggla	2B	ATL	33	3	0.273	0.432	0.606	1.038	0.353
Nolan Arenado	3B	COL	34	2	0.353	0.389	0.647	1.036	0.370
Deven Marrero	SS	BOS	21	1	0.333	0.462	0.571	1.033	0.500
Juan Francisco	1B	MIL	24	2	0.333	0.407	0.625	1.032	0.462
Don Kelly	LF	DET	28	1	0.357	0.424	0.607	1.031	0.375
Carlos Gonzalez	LF	COL	25	1	0.360	0.429	0.600	1.029	0.400
Ryan Lavarnway	C	BOS	26	2	0.346	0.414	0.615	1.029	0.368
Robbie Grossman	LF	HOU	29	1	0.414	0.441	0.586	1.027	0.478
Alex Rios	RF	TEX	21	1	0.429	0.455	0.571	1.026	0.500
Rickie Weeks	2B	MIL	23	1	0.348	0.500	0.522	1.022	0.412
Alex Dickerson	1B	SD	25	2	0.280	0.379	0.640	1.019	0.313
Justin Maxwell	RF	KC	43	1	0.419	0.409	0.605	1.014	0.515
Juan Perez	CF	SF	40	1	0.325	0.413	0.600	1.013	0.375
Tyler Collins	RF	DET	29	2	0.276	0.323	0.690	1.013	0.286
Zach Lutz	3B	NYM	26	3	0.308	0.321	0.692	1.013	0.357
Jason Heyward	RF	ATL	40	3	0.350	0.409	0.600	1.009	0.367
Rob Brantly	C	MIA	20	1	0.350	0.409	0.600	1.009	0.375
Carlos Peguero	RF	KC	23	1	0.348	0.483	0.522	1.005	0.438
Michael Brantley	LF	CLE	26		0.423	0.467	0.538	1.005	0.423
Yunel Escobar	SS	TB	24		0.417	0.462	0.542	1.004	0.500
Reed Johnson	LF	MIA	28	1	0.393	0.433	0.571	1.004	0.417
Miguel Rojas	SS	LAD	27		0.444	0.483	0.519	1.002	0.462
Daniel Nava	LF	BOS	26	2	0.269	0.424	0.577	1.001	0.238
Rene Rivera	C	SD	21		0.429	0.429	0.571	1.000	0.500
Michael Taylor	RF	OAK	43	3	0.302	0.388	0.605	0.993	0.357
Jay Bruce	RF	CIN	31	1	0.290	0.436	0.548	0.984	0.333
Jose Pirela	SS	NYY	21	1	0.381	0.409	0.571	0.980	0.389
Jesus Montero	C	SEA	29	2	0.310	0.355	0.621	0.976	0.350
Yonder Alonso	1B	SD	35	2	0.343	0.343	0.629	0.972	0.385
John Mayberry	RF	PHI	26	2	0.308	0.357	0.615	0.972	0.286
Ian Kinsler	2B	DET	33	2	0.303	0.395	0.576	0.971	0.320
Matt Holliday	LF	STL	23		0.391	0.444	0.522	0.966	0.474
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	CF	NYM	30	1	0.300	0.432	0.533	0.965	0.444
Marcus Semien	SS	CHW	24		0.375	0.464	0.500	0.964	0.450
Wilson Ramos	C	WAS	26	1	0.385	0.385	0.577	0.962	0.375
Cole Gillespie	LF	SEA	23		0.391	0.440	0.522	0.962	0.450
Giancarlo Stanton	RF	MIA	36	3	0.306	0.350	0.611	0.961	0.308
Oswaldo Arcia	LF	MIN	22	1	0.318	0.370	0.591	0.961	0.500
Adam Eaton	LF	CHW	29	1	0.345	0.441	0.517	0.958	0.409
Adonis Garcia	CF	NYY	22		0.455	0.455	0.500	0.955	0.556
Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	CLE	29		0.345	0.472	0.483	0.955	0.417
Todd Frazier	3B	CIN	32	2	0.313	0.361	0.594	0.955	0.364
Xavier Scruggs	1B	STL	24	1	0.250	0.455	0.500	0.955	0.294
Brock Peterson	1B	WAS	26	1	0.346	0.414	0.538	0.952	0.500

You’ll notice right away that there are some very high BABIP’s on this list. There is a theory – I’m not sure if it’s ever been definitively proven – that hitters will post an unusually high BABIP when they out class the pitcher. Intuitively, that must be true to some extent. I imagine a guy like McCutchen can hit the ball X percent harder with more line drives and deep flies against below major league quality pitching. Traditionally, we see this theory applied to MiLB stats to say “Player X had a .400 BABIP, but that’s not necessarily a bad sign since it could mean he’s ready for a promotion.” 

One thing we do know about BABIP is that it will regress towards league average. Maybe not all the way, but we can expect a guy with a .500 BABIP like Bernadina to regress towards his .291 career rate. So there’s your warning about BABIP in case you forgot to apply that caveat above (I told you to apply ALL caveats). Also remember that the Cactus league is a much friendlier run scoring environment than the Grapefruit League.

Let’s pick out a few names that smell interesting. I’ll start with five here, but let’s discuss more in the comments.

Chris Heisey, OF

Since arriving in camp, Heisey has received plenty of positive press. He’s made a minor mechanical change by lowering his hands in his setup. Historically, that could mean nothing or everything. Usually nothing. The scuttlebutt is that he’s hitting the ball with more authority than past seasons. Internet writers have also speculated that he’ll have the freedom to be more patient now that Bryan Price is running the ship. So far, he has five spring home runs, which makes him the current home run leader.

At the moment, he’s the fourth outfielder on the depth chart, behind Bruce, Billy Hamilton, and Ryan Ludwick. Schumaker will also see some time in the outfield. With Ludwick and Hamilton in starting roles, there are a lot of ways to work Heisey into a semi-regular role. Ludwick’s had a mediocre spring, so Heisey could potentially jump up the depth chart with a few more good games.

Dan Uggla, 2B

Despite my bold prediction to the contrary, Uggla is not giving away his job to Thomas La Stella. He’s showcasing his usual combination of power and patience. The typical fantasy batting average is around .250, so a .210 mark from Uggla isn’t automatically ruinous. Meanwhile, he still has 30 home run upside and he’s being extremely ignored in all  but the deepest formats. Even there sometimes.

Nolan Arenado, 3B

Arenado’s best skill is supposed to be his glove, but the FanGraphs crew witnessed a classic Roger Dorn “Ole.” Later, he also handled a batted short hop where I swear his head was turned away. Fantasy owners care more about his five extra base hits. I’ve seen some people get really excited about him, but I look at him as an ideal waiver streamer in standard depth leagues. I’d rather roster Kelly Johnson and his position flex.

Zach Lutz, 1B/3B

He’s shown good power this spring, with three home runs. Power development is his ticket to any real or fantasy relevance. He’s currently behind Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. If they start the season on the disabled list, then the Mets will presumably swing Daniel Murphy to first base and Eric Young to second base. Josh Satin’s also between Lutz and playing time. I could still see speculating on Lutz in a very deep NL Only league or perhaps a dynasty format. Weird things happen to the Mets.

Michael Taylor, OF

Taylor is a certified Big Guy, but the Stanford swing has been blamed for mediocre power development. He’s performed quite well in the minors – he’d be a top 25 pick if we were playing Triple-A fantasy. His translation to the majors just hasn’t worked out. This is probably his last chance with the A’s, so it’s encouraging to see three home runs in his spring line.

Honorable Mentions

It’s nice to see Heyward and Stanton hitting well without any BABIP help.

Remember when Jack Zduriencik said the M’s had no expectations for a newly fat(ter) Montero? Well he’s popped a .310/.355/.610 spring line with a reasonable .350 BABIP. And just when you thought this would be an easy decision. He’s already been optioned to Triple-A, so don’t get any crazy ideas in your head.