Top 100 Prospects: Better in Fantasy than Reality
In case you haven’t noticed, the past few weeks have brought the unveilings of many of the baseball industry’s most respected and reputable Top Prospects lists. As is, these make for good discussion and great debate, but there’s also a difference between evaluating prospects for real life Major League Baseball and evaluating them from a fantasy baseball perspective. With four Top 100s available for perusal, it’s time to focus on the latter.
This week, we’ll highlight some prospects who are really, really good — in fact, each is included in all four of the Top 100s — but actually might be underrated in fantasy compared to reality, given where they stand in these rankings.
Before getting into the names, here’s a quick review of the methodology I used.
As of the end of February, the four Top 100 Prospects lists that have been released are:
1) Baseball America’s Top 100
2) Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101
3) ESPN.com’s Top 100
4) MLB.com’s Top 100
I dissected and parsed all four sets of rankings and identified the prospects who appeared on all four. I found 75 common prospects, which is about what I’d expected, giving me the best of the best.
From there, I took the average rankings of those 75 prospects and sorted them from best to worst. For this week’s column I focused on the second half of my list of 75 and picked out a batch of prospects who could be underrated in fantasy compared to reality.
Billy Hamilton, Reds OF
Average Ranking: 18.8 (No. 18 overall out of 75)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Okay, so I’m cheating a bit here, as Hamilton was ranked in the first quarter of the list, but I’m pointing him out because, frankly, once (or is it “if”?) the 22-year-old switch-hitter proves he can be a starting outfielder with enough bat for the majors — possibly by 2014 — he almost immediately becomes a second- or third-round pick given that he could steal 80-plus bases and practically win that category by himself.
Jorge Soler, Cubs OF
Average Ranking: 38.5 (No. 35 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Having just turned 21, Soler has some of the best raw physical tools in the minors, and he could start 2013 in High-A. My hunch is that Soler’s very-good-but-not-great average ranking stems from the fact that, as a Cuban-born player, he’s still somewhat of an unknown. A solid showing this year could jump him solidly into the Top 25 prospects next spring.
Mason Williams, Yankees OF
Average Ranking: 39.8 (No. 39 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Williams, 21, is an extremely athletic player with plus speed, good contact skills and more power than you might think from his sinewy frame (6’0″, 150). After missing the final two months of 2012 because of shoulder surgery, if he stays healthy and produces in his first legitimate go at High-A, Williams will look even better.
Danny Hultzen, Mariners SP
Average Ranking: 40.8 (No. 40 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: The 23-year-old Hultzen fluctuated on the four rankings — as high as No. 18 (MLB) and as low as No. 66 (ESPN) — so clearly nobody quite knows what to make of the left-hander’s wild ways at Triple-A last year (43 BBs in 48.2 IPs). I’ll focus on the unexpectedly great 9.9 K/9, the four homers allowed and the fact that he’s nearly ready to pitch in one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks.
George Springer, Astros OF
Average Ranking: 48.0 (No. 45 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Springer’s biggest flaws are his scary strikeout rate (27%) and his age (already 23). Sure, his 2012 stats were inflated by the hitter’s haven that is High-A Lancaster — Springer went for 24 homers and 32 steals last year — but this toolshed has the ability to post perennial 20-20 seasons. If he can just hit in the .240-.260 range, that actually doesn’t hurt fantasy owners as much anymore.
Gregory Polanco, Pirates OF
Average Ranking: 53.8 (No. 51 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Sensing a pattern? There seems to be somewhat of a bias against very athletic outfielders on these Top 100s, especially those who have no more than one great full season on their resumes. Polanco, a 21-year-old lefty hitter, crushed the comp in A-ball, posting a .325 average, 16 homers and 40 steals — while whiffing just 13% of the time. If he proves he can do that again as he reaches the high minors, Polanco will be sitting prettier this time next year.
Oswaldo Arcia, Twins OF
Average Ranking: 63.3 (No. 59 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Still only 21, all Arcia has done in five pro seasons is hit: .314/.371/.535. The lefty hitter also started to show some patience last season with a career-best 10% BB rate. Given the Twins outfield situation, a late-2013 debut is possible, and Arcia has the lumber to rack up high averages, which holds more weight in today’s fantasy game, and plenty of extra-base hits.
Nick Franklin, Mariners SS/2B
Average Ranking: 66.8 (No. 61 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Franklin, a 22-year-old switch-hitter, has the tools to be a .250-.270 hitter with 15-15 ability as a shortstop and/or second baseman. That’s a Jed Lowrie-type (minus the injury issues), which is very useful in fantasy. The big questions, though, are whether he can handle short at the big league level (because Dustin Ackley deserves another shot before he’s declared a bust), and how much his limited offensive profile will be reigned in by Safeco.
Wily Peralta, Brewers SP
Average Ranking: 68.5 (No. 62 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Peralta, 23, throws easy mid-90s gas with heavy sink, so he generates strikeouts and groundouts. Combined with an expected rotation spot with Milwaukee this season, he’s an intriguing fantasy sleeper, who’s ERA and whiff total might be better than his WHIP, because control (4.0 BB/9) has always been his bugaboo.
Jedd Gyorko, Padres 3B/2B
Average Ranking: 68.8 (No. 63 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Let’s not go gaga over Gyorko’s spring performance just yet. That said, the 24-year-old is one of the most MLB-ready hitters who’ve yet to debut. Don’t expect 30 homers — his 2012 total between Double- and Triple-A — especially with Petco as his home, but a high-average doubles machine who could have eligibility at second and third base sounds like a nice fantasy piece to own.
Kolten Wong, Cardinals 2B
Average Ranking: 87.3 (No. 75 overall)
Why He’s Better in Fantasy: Wong gets mention here mainly because he checked in dead-last among the 75 common names, but given his all-around game and baseball savvy, he’s very likely to wind up being more fantasy relevant than a large chunk of the 74 players ahead of him. He’ll never be a top fantasy option for second base, but he’ll hit for a solid average and score plenty of runs — two of the more underrated categories — while also chipping in double-digit steals. Perhaps the perfect mixed league MI, and he should start helping owners this season.
Jason Catania is an MLB Lead Writer for Bleacher Report who also contributes to ESPN The Magazine, ESPN Insider and MLB Rumor Central, focusing on baseball and fantasy content. When he was first introduced to fantasy baseball, Derek Jeter had 195 career hits, Jamie Moyer had 72 wins and Matt Stairs was on team No. 3. You can follow him on Twitter: @JayCat11
Who do like better M Williams or G Springer?
Carlester: It’s close, but I think I’d lean Springer. The swing-and-miss is definitely a worry, but I think he has more offensive upside to fall back on, especially in the power department. Plus, Springer is a little bit closer and should get a longer leash with the Astros, who are bound to let him take his lumps until he figures it out (or doesn’t).
Thanks.
I play in points leagues and I find that one trick ponies like Billy Hamilton are consistently over-rated in those leagues because of all the hype they are given by writers writing for leagues where they can win the stolen base category even if they are otherwise pretty useless .
dirck: This is a fair point. In a points league, where steals are worth, say, 2 points but homers are 4 points, I’d downgrade a guy like Hamilton, who’s biggest concern is how his bat will hold up against the best pitching there is.
Ages ago for Mastersball.com I wrote some columns about the concept of “usable value,” which dealt with category monsters like elite speedsters and a then HR-demolishing Barry Bonds. The gist was the fairly obvious point that having a dominant category player required balancing the rest of the roster in order to avoid wasting the advantage gained. For instance, a lot of times you’ll see a team winning stolen bases by 30, of which the last 29 were entirely valueless. So Billy Hamilton will be most valuable to rosters that eschew stolen bases at other positions.
jdbolick: Exactly. Owning a guy like Hamilton, if he pans out and turns into a 60-80 stolen base guy, is all about roster construction. It would be similar to owning Michael Bourn from 2009-2011, when he was getting 50-60 swipes a year. You knew you could skew power-heavy on the rest of your lineup to make up for Bourn’s lack, and you didn’t have to worry so much about getting other players who could steal 30 bases.
Ya if I’m drafting Hamilton, I’m basically “punting” SBs the rest of the way in H2H or roto.
Jason ,in my points leagues stolen bases are worth 1 point ,while a home run is worth between 6 and 9 points ( 4 points for 4 bases, plus 1 point for a run scored ,and 1 point for each rbi )so that 100 stolen bases equals approximately 13-14 home runs .In that format ,a guy with no power and a low batting average is pretty useless even if he is a great base stealer ,yet guys will over rate him in my leagues because they read that his ADP is 20 .I will only roster guys like that if I can get them as free agents and then I look to trade them to one of the guys who thinks they are worth far more than they are .
dirck: Obviously, Hamilton’s value is nowhere close in your league to what it would be in a rotisserie style format (with stolen bases as a category unto itself). That’s why what you’re doing is clever. You have to know your own league and what works — as well as what doesn’t. In your case, I probably wouldn’t own anyone who derives even, say, 25% of his value from steals. Load up on power hitters or guys who knock doubles all over the park (like Alex Gordon).
One of the best articles for fantasy players.Quite possibly one or two mentioned might help a team this year.
aherbert: Thanks for that. I’m going to do the reverse next week — Top 100 prospects who might be overrated for fantasy based on their real-life rankings.
Strongly disagree with Wong, Franklin, and Gyroko being on this list. In simple terms, none have the “fantasy tools” and all play in pitchers parks.
Anon: You’re not wrong on both accounts, but in relation to where those three rank compared to other Top 100 prospects, I think they’ll wind up being very useful in fantasy — as soon as this season. Point is: Among the best of the best prospects, they’re likely to be underrated.
For reference, I’ve now included a link to the 75 common prospects, as well as their average ranking from the four Top 100s, within the story.
Eh, don’t really get the point of putting them on this list. They are far more likely to be undervalued in real life than in fantasy (as they will have no value in fantasy for the reasons I mentioned) while they will average to above average real life players which is valuable.
I’d much rather have Gioliti in fantasy than these three and he is similarly rated in this exercise. Then there are guys who didn’t make the consensus top 100 like Puig and Gallo who I’d rather gamble on.
Gyorko has enough bat for fantasy, particularly if he qualifies at 2B.
We shall see in regards to bat, as BA lists his power grade at 55, that combined with Petco means below average HR production. Then absolutely no speed. The run environment hurting his R/RBI numbers, he is going to have to have one hell of a batting average. Just not something I’d bank on.
55 is above average and he’ll play half his games away. Same source also gives him a 65 bat/hit. In a 12 team league without MI he has to be as good as 2012 Danny Espinosa, and in a league with MI he has to be as good as 2012 Kelly Johnson.
Hitting scouting grades are not relative to the expected production at a player’s position. 55 grade power is above average for an MLB player. It means in a neutral park, the player will hit 18-20 homeruns, which is WELL above average for a 2b. Even scaled down for PETCO, we’re still talking about 12-15 homeruns. When paired with BA’s 65 hit tool on him, Gyorko is absolutely a fantasy relevant prospect.
No one said 55 was below average, but when mixed with Petco the HR production then becomes below average, I have no idea how you guys aren’t comprehending this. And yeah, no duh hitting grades have nothing to do with position.
The point is Gyorko is a very well known prospect, read the title of the post it says “better in fantasy than reality,” this isn’t true of Gyorko even with his not so great defense, which is a common characteristic of said player, along with more power/speed/lower walks. Also, if Gyorko can’t stick at 2B, which is a distinct possibility he definitely has absolutely zero fantasy value as a Padre.
Well actually, as a bat-first prospect, Gyorko basically epitomizes “better in fantasy than reality”. Whether it’s good enough for the shallow leagues you seem to play in is another story :).
Good point, I don’t play in leagues where every player on a MLB roster has value. Matter of fact, I don’t play in any leagues, but I know the basis of fantasy value. Also, thanks for admitting Jedd is all bat, thus has a good chance of moving off 2B. And an all bat Padre prospect isn’t exactly something you search out as a fantasy owner me thinks.
The fact that a hitter plays in San Diego is pretty much enough to make sure that he’s not a better fantasy option than real life player, given that prospect lists don’t take park factors into account.
Anon: I hear what you’re saying, and you’re making valid points. From my POV, though, I think BECAUSE Gyorko’s defense is likely to be subpar, especially at second, that alone will make him better in fantasy than reality — or underrated compared to other consensus Top 100 prospects. A young player who eventually might hit .290-plus with 12-15 homers, 30 doubles and 60-80 RBIs/Runs on a consistent basis is actually a startable commodity, either as a 2B in NL-only or even as a 2B/MI in most mixed leagues. In essence, if Gyorko can gain 2B/3B eligibility — even if the whole second base thing isn’t working out all that well — there’s hidden value in that for fantasy purposes that doesn’t translate to real life.
Yeah, but such a player is not really being underrated by the prospect lists.
The link to the 75 common prospects doesn’t seem to be working.
Shawnuel: Thought I’d input the hyperlink before. Should be good now, I hope? Try again and let me know! Thanks for heads-up.
A few criticisms:
– It would have been helpful to provide some rankings context under each player’s description. Comparing them to other players with similar rankings would help justify the explanation for why someone is underrated in fantasy compared to their similarly ranked peers (e.g. Gyorko is largely considered a poor defensive 2nd baseman with limited physical projection, but his offensive abilities at a premium position stand to make him a more valuable fantasy player than [simiarly ranked examples]).
– I see no real support for saying that younger, toolsy OFers are underrated. If anything, the fact that many of them are being rated in part on their ability to be a defensive asset (strong, but not perfect, correlation with being “toolsy”) would suggest that their real-life value is higher than their fantasy value. Williams, in particular, is described as a potentially very good fielder at a premium defensive position.
– Further, Soler, Williams, and Polanco are rated extraordinarily highly in SPITE of their lack of experience (none above A-ball). It’s extremely rare for any player to be rated so highly without an early 1st-round pedigree or superlative international contract. On your composite list, every player rated above Polanco at 53 on the composite list was either a top 11 draft pick or has played above A-ball. If they’re truly underrated in fantasy, you need to explain why they should be rated even more exceptionally on a fantasy list than they are on the real lists.
– While I’m fairly certain I know your reasoning, it was jarring to read that Springer’s probably low average “doesn’t hurt fantasy owners as much anymore” followed two blurbs later with saying a high Arcia average “holds more weight in today’s fantasy game.” I assume you’re alluding to how mean batting average (possibly for a specific sample/population of players) has fallen over the past [x] years, but it initially struck me as a contradiction.
– Finally, I would have preferred that the article were organized around common factors amongst “underrated” fantasy prospects, with specific examples, rather than writing blurbs that largely just rehash others’ scouting reports.
AP: Thanks for the feedback. Appreciate your taking the time to read and respond. Not sure if you saw my post last week about how I try to evaluate prospects for fantasy purposes compared to real life ratings, but I break down a number of the factors that I like to consider, which explains more thoroughly where I’m coming from with these choices. Here’s the link: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/fake-teams-prospect-mock-draft-my-team-my-strategy/
As to your points:
1) RE: context and comparisons — My post next week will be on consensus Top 100 prospects who may be overrated in fantasy because of where they stand in these lists. It doesn’t necessarily mean that I would take any player from this “underrated” group over any from the “overrated” group in fantasy, but the idea is that there could very well be more VALUE here because the hype factor isn’t as supercharged.
2) RE: toolsy outfielders — This is a good point: Defense does factor into the rankings for players like Williams and Polanco, who are good with the glove. But I think that’s already established, since they’re all Top 100 guys, as you point out. However, in each of the “toolsy OF” cases I brought up, they each bring a lot to the table as far as fantasy contributions — separate from their D — like Williams and Polanco with stolen bases and Soler and Springer with power/speed. Again, when you see the “overrated” list next week, it will put this in better context.
3) RE: batting average — With the decline of offense over the past 3-4 seasons, batting average on the whole has dropped (in 2006, the league-wide BA was .269; in 2011 and 2012? .255). Point being, if a player is producing in other categories, a .240 average isn’t as damning as it used to be. On the flip side, then, if a player hits .290-.310, well, that obviously carries more weight because it’s that much higher than the average, um, average.
4) RE: common factors for “underrated” prospects — see the story I linked to above!
Wong seems like the kind of guy who’d have more value in points leagues. Those guys who don’t strike out much are always worth more there than in roto leagues.
Especially given that Wong screams “old school #2 hitter”, hitting in front of the meat of that St. Louis lineup would give him a lot of run scoring opportunities.
HenduForKutch: Certainly, the type of league and scoring system is a big factor. To me, Wong is a player who will be very solid and consistent, so he might be better in head-to-head formats. And he’s certainly much more valuable in NL-only leagues because 2B and MI can be treacherous positions to fill, so having a guy like Wong in there would be an advantage to having to constantly add/drop other candidates or find the hot hand.
I think fantasy-wise Wong projects to a useful MI more than a starting 2B. He can have decent average, runs (depending on lineup placement) and steals, and probably won’t have much power or RBI (or OPS). Given that he has good fielding and make-up, I’m not sure that he’s necessarily better in fantasy than reality; if anything he’s probably solid but not spectacular for both.