Tommy Joseph and Inscrutable Dynasty Assets

The purpose of this post is not to evaluate Tommy Joseph. At least, not in the usual sense. We’re here today to talk about dynasty assets. Specifically, the kinds of assets that are hard to value. Joseph is a great example. Ryan Schimpf is another. If you want, you guys can supply another dozen names in the comments.

Do you know much about Joseph? Let’s explore.

The prospect community had given up on him after concussions waylaid his catching career. After the Phillies acquired him from the Giants for Hunter Pence, Joseph barely played. When he did, he was regarded as a bat-first catcher whose bat wasn’t good enough. When I – and, presumably, everyone else – heard the Phillies were moving him to first base, I scratched him off my mental list of notable names. If you can’t hit enough for catcher, you sure can’t hit enough for first base.

But then, Joseph was healthy going into last winter. He had a full offseason of training entering a make or break year. He made it. What’s more, he did it in impressive fashion. Despite so much lost development time, healthy Joseph pounded hard hit fly balls. He hit frequent home runs against both fastballs and breaking balls. Joseph struggled against changeups, but few pitchers have good changeups. As far as weaknesses go, it’s not a bad one.

He was on pace for 39 home runs in a full 650 plate appearances season. We all know “pace” is piss poor evaluative tool, but it can speak towards upside when discussing a partial season. Especially when we dig into the details. Joseph made frequent hard, pulled, fly ball contact. If the contact profile remains the same, he’s going to regularly hit 30 home runs. Compare his batted ball numbers to Mark Trumbo. They have a lot in common. Even the plate discipline is comparable. Joseph looks a lot like Trumbo, except he’s 25, missed a bunch of development time, and isn’t signed to a lucrative contract.

So what do you do when you land a player like Joseph in your dynasty league? Odds are, other owners have asked about him. Fantasy owners frequently ask about under-the-radar players with 40 home run ability. Queue up the low ball offers. The sharks are coming for your Joseph, and they totally have Carlos Asuaje and Brandon Maurer available in exchange.

This is where it gets complicated. Let’s say you’d actually like to sell Joseph. Perhaps you have too many corner infielders. Maybe you don’t like that Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco are lurking in the same system. Perhaps you worry the scouting report will catch up. His role in the Phillies offense is uncertain. He might bat sixth or seventh. There’s real downside risk to Joseph.

There’s also plenty of upside. Remember the lost development time? Another healthy offseason, instruction from new hitting coach Matt Stairs, and/or a general accrual of experience could be the key for Joseph to unlock another gear. Nolan Arenado probably has the best combination of the Trumbo hitting profile. Maybe Joseph drifts in that direction. Somewhere better than Trumbo but less than Arenado. We call that “above average.”

That’s a wide range of scenarios for which to account. Add them all together, and you could rationally support a similarly wide range of valuations. As we know, when a player is already on a roster, his owner is prone to the endowment effect. In the case of Joseph, one might see the upside more clearly than the downside. When non-owners are looking to acquire new players, they tend to see downside with greater clarity.

The bottom line – players like Joseph are especially difficult to trade or acquire via trade. There’s almost always going to be a gulf between the current upside-focused owner and the prospective downside-aware trade partner. Assuming you’re not the speculative sort of owner who regularly churns through these types of assets (you would have sold him during the season), the best course of action may be to say he’s not available.

Over the years, I’ve observed the power of the unavailable tag. It takes time and patience, but the best trades always happen when you say no. No. No. No. No. Fine, I’ll accept 1.5x valuation. That process usually takes months. If Joseph continues to hit like a younger Trumbo, he’ll eventually be treated like a younger Trumbo. Be patient.

If, instead, you’re one of those guys who wants to own Joseph, now may be the time to “overpay.” That presently unreasonable price tag may look like a steal in three months.

Let’s end with a quick dynasty thought experiment. Assume we’re talking about a deep league – 20 teams, 50 player rosters. Would you trade Manuel Margot for Joseph? Probably not, right? Your gut says that feels a little steep. Would you trade him for Trumbo? Maybe, especially if you need the power and run production right now more than some maybe steals. Would you trade Margot if Trumbo was entering his age 25 season? That’s a big ol’ youbetcha.

That’s a few of my semi-organized thoughts about inscrutable assets. I bet you have thoughts on the subject too. Let’s discuss.