Tom Gorzelanny and Others with Three Above Average Pitches

Right before spring training starts  is the time to begin finding players on the fringe. The great to average players have been well documented. Their value is visible in early drafts. To find some fringe pitchers, I looked for ones with an above average fastball, change and breaking ball. The list contains mainly the game’s best pitchers. Instead, I am going to focus on the talent pool’s shallow end and examine Tom Gorzelanny.

First, I will step through how I found a possible sleeper in a 31-year-old left handed middle reliever. I was looking for pitchers who threw three above average pitches and had a chance to start. Using PITCHf/x data, I collected the pitchers who had any above average fastball (two-finger, four-finger, splitter, cutter or sinker), one above average breaking ball (slider or curveball) and a changeup. Additionally, I wanted to make sure the pitcher threw the pitch on a normal basis. Fastballs had to be thrown over 20% of the time and for breaking balls and curveballs it was 10%. Additionally, the pitcher had to have made at least one start (team willing to start him) and had throw at least 30 innings (a bit of MLB experience). Here are the pitchers who met the requirements in 2012 (28 total) and 2013 (16 total).

2012 Pitchers with Three Above Average Pitches

Name	Team	Age	ERA	FIP-	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP
A.J. Griffin	Athletics	24	3.06	96	15	15	82	7.0	2.1	0.264
Chris Sale	White Sox	23	3.05	76	30	29	192	9.0	2.4	0.294
Chris Seddon	Indians	28	3.67	99	17	2	34	4.7	3.4	0.289
Chris Tillman	Orioles	24	2.93	100	15	15	86	6.9	2.5	0.221
David Price	Rays	26	2.56	77	31	31	211	8.7	2.5	0.285
Doug Fister	Tigers	28	3.45	81	26	26	161	7.6	2.1	0.296
Eric Stults	– – –	32	2.91	104	20	15	99	5.0	2.5	0.264
Felix Hernandez	Mariners	26	3.06	73	33	33	232	8.7	2.2	0.308
Franklin Morales	Red Sox	26	3.77	102	37	9	76	9.0	3.5	0.262
James Shields	Rays	30	3.52	88	33	33	227	8.8	2.3	0.292
Jarrod Parker	Athletics	23	3.47	85	29	29	181	6.9	3.1	0.290
Jeff Karstens	Pirates	29	3.97	87	19	15	90	6.6	1.5	0.287
Jered Weaver	Angels	29	2.81	94	30	30	188	6.8	2.1	0.241
Jeremy Hellickson	Rays	25	3.10	117	31	31	177	6.3	3.0	0.261
Johnny Cueto	Reds	26	2.78	83	33	33	217	7.1	2.0	0.296
Justin Verlander	Tigers	29	2.64	69	33	33	238	9.0	2.3	0.273
Kevin Correia	Pirates	31	4.21	117	32	28	171	4.7	2.4	0.274
Kris Medlen	Braves	26	1.57	63	50	12	138	7.8	1.5	0.261
Kyle Lohse	Cardinals	33	2.86	93	33	33	211	6.1	1.6	0.262
Matt Harvey	Mets	23	2.73	88	10	10	59	10.6	3.9	0.262
Matt Moore	Rays	23	3.81	100	31	31	177	8.9	4.1	0.293
Miguel Gonzalez	Orioles	28	3.25	103	18	15	105	6.6	3.0	0.260
Mike Minor	Braves	24	4.12	114	30	30	179	7.3	2.8	0.252
Paul Maholm	– – –	30	3.67	101	32	31	189	6.7	2.5	0.281
Ryan Vogelsong	Giants	34	3.37	101	31	31	189	7.5	2.9	0.284
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	23	3.16	73	28	28	159	11.1	2.7	0.311
Tom Gorzelanny	Nationals	29	2.88	102	45	1	72	7.8	3.8	0.283
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	25	3.33	77	32	29	194	6.7	1.7	0.293

2013 Pitchers with Three Above Average Pitches

Name	Team	Age	ERA	FIP-	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	29	2.57	59	29	29	182	10.0	2.7	0.307
Chad Jenkins	Blue Jays	25	2.70	97	10	3	33	4.1	1.6	0.262
Chris Sale	White Sox	24	3.07	77	30	30	214	9.5	1.9	0.289
Danny Salazar	Indians	23	3.12	83	10	10	52	11.3	2.6	0.298
Doug Fister	Tigers	29	3.67	81	33	32	208	6.9	1.9	0.332
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	27	3.36	91	32	32	195	8.8	3.5	0.286
Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	26	3.00	90	30	30	192	7.2	2.3	0.296
James Shields	Royals	31	3.15	86	34	34	228	7.7	2.7	0.298
Jered Weaver	Angels	30	3.27	101	24	24	154	6.8	2.2	0.268
Kris Medlen	Braves	27	3.11	94	32	31	197	7.2	2.1	0.298
Matt Cain	Giants	28	4.00	111	30	30	184	7.7	2.7	0.260
Max Scherzer	Tigers	28	2.90	68	32	32	214	10.1	2.4	0.259
Mike Minor	Braves	25	3.21	90	32	32	204	8.0	2.0	0.272
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	24	3.00	85	30	30	183	9.4	2.8	0.263
Tom Gorzelanny	Brewers	30	3.90	103	43	10	85	8.8	3.3	0.288
Zack Greinke	Dodgers	29	2.63	90	28	28	177	7.5	2.3	0.276

The list is pretty much a who’s who of starting pitchers. Eight pitchers made the list each year, Chris Sale, Doug Fister, James Shields, Jered Weaver, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Stephen Strasburg, and finally Tom Gorzelanny. The first seven’s average draft rank among pitchers is 23.3. Gorzelanny is down at 207. Well, it now time to see if Gorzelanny is worth a roster spot.

First, his 2013 ERA was at 3.90 which was in line with his FIP (3.94), but a bit above his xFIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.56). Obviously, his was home run prone with a 1.2 HR/9 causing the high FIP. His season was divided up into two halves. In nine of the first ten games he pitched, he started. Over the rest of the season, he pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen. Here are his stats as a starter and reliever.

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP
As Starter	48.2	8.9	2.2	1.3	0.343	4.81	3.68	3.39
As Reliever	36.2	8.6	4.7	1.0	0.198	2.70	4.28	3.97

His results are completely mixed making it tough to tell exactly what went on. Basically, he got hit around as a starter which led to an ERA higher than his FIP and xFIP. As a reliever, he doubled his walk rate, but was able to have an ERA below his ERA estimators. Good luck as reliever and bad luck as a starter.

Through it all, he was able to throw three unique pitches, ,two-finger fastball, slider and change, with above average results. The biggest difference for him compared to earlier in his career was his changeup development. From 2007 to 2011 it was a below average pitch for him. Over the last two season, it was above league average.

Going into 2014, several question surround him. First, he had off-season shoulder surgery to repair some loose bodies. I like that he had the surgery and could see improvement in 2014. Second, he doesn’t project to have a starting spot in the rotation. A middle reliever just doesn’t have much value. Finally, and most importantly, he is not a lights out pitcher. He is borderline decent. He could be able to mix his pitches up a bit and luck out a bit to post an ERA a run under is ERA estimators. Or it could be a run the other way. We will have to wait and find out.

Tom Gorzelanny belongs to a unique group of pitchers who have thrown three above average pitches over the past two seasons. He probably won’t be on most people’s radar on draft day. I do see him as option/chance for an owner getting desperate later in the season when injuries begin to mount and the waiver wire is picked over. He has at least one positive trait which is probably more than the other available pitchers.