Tipping Pitches: Max Scherzer’s Home Runs

We’ve seen a paradigm shift in fantasy baseball the last couple of years as starting pitchers are being trusted more and more as early round, bankable assets. There has been a sharp change in offensive environment across the league as the “PED era” has given way to “Strikeout era” and fantasy managers don’t want to get caught without a premium ace or two, similar to how you needed at least a couple 30+ HR bats in the early-2000s to have any chance in the offensive categories.

This year is the most confident I’ve ever seen the market be in starting pitching as the top 20 were all drafted within the top 70 picks overall. Another six after that still made the top 100. Taking it a step further, 18 of those 20 were top 50 picks compared to just 10 pitchers elected as such in 2015. We are now a month and a half into the season and a whopping 60% of the top 20 starters are underwhelming against expectations. Some are lagging in a category and feel just a click off from dominating. Others are just flat out bad. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be investigating what’s going on with those in the top 20 who are underperforming. Today, let’s look at of the biggest laggards compared to expectations: Max Scherzer.

(By the way, the average draft position referenced is from NFBC)

Scherzer was taken as the second SP off the board and 15th overall this draft season. Even in a 20-strikeout masterful performance against his former teammates, we saw the flaw that has hampered Scherzer since last July: home runs. He allowed a pair of solo shots which left that game close throughout. Scherzer has 10 multi-HR outings since July 12th of last season, allowing a whopping 30 HRs in that span. His 4.7% HR rate (homers divided batters faced) is a league-high in that same timeframe.

Everything else in his profile is so strong that it’s hard to completely freak out, but HRs are the quickest way to torching an ERA. In fact, a 4-HR massacre in Chicago is the main reason Scherzer sits at 4.15 right now. The fastball is the culprit, allowing 27 of his 38 homers dating back to the beginning of 2015. Homers were an issue for Scherzer before his evolution into acedom, too. In 2008-12, he allowed 1.1 HR/9 and then it was down to 0.7 in 2013-14 before spiking back up to 1.2 since the start of last season. Comparing 2013-14 fastball usage to 2015-16 shows two key differences (only one of which might offer some insight on the elevated HR rate): more heat in the zone and specifically, up in the zone.

• 2013-14: 57% of his fastballs in the zone and 28% of them in the upper-third of the zone
• 2015-16: 62% in the zone and 39% up

Working up with the fastball isn’t exactly bad and so it’s easy to say he needs to command the fastball better, but I’m not entirely sure what that means in practice for Scherzer. After all, his 29% strikeout rate on heaters since the start of 2015 is the league’s best among 88 qualified starters (min. 400 PA). His 5% walk rate is fourth-best. So it’s either super-dominant or out of the park. Is there an element of bad luck at play?

Looking again at that timeframe starting on July 12th when the homers really took off (pun… intended? I mean, it’s not even good so I’ll actually say it’s unintended), his HR/FB rate is 19%. He’s also a flyball pitcher and always has been. According to Hit Tracker, 12 of the 30 homers he’s allowed in that timeframe fall under the Just Enough/Lucky classification.

“Just Enough” home run – Means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.

Lucky Homer – A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day.

Only five got their “No Doubt” classification.

I can’t reiterate enough how good everything else in Scherzer’s profile has been around these home runs. He has a 31% strikeout rate and just a 4% walk rate, both elite marks. That’s how he has held a passable ERA in the face of the homer fest. His 11 HRs this year are an NL-high (Chris Young “leads” the league at 13) and almost everyone else with at least nine allowed has a horrific ERA. Trash bags like Michael Pineda and Chase Anderson are toting ERAs north of 6.00. I said “almost” because Colby Lewis has allowed nine bombs, but still has a 3.20 ERA somehow.

While I certainly wouldn’t write it all off to a run of bad luck, I think enough of it is or at least enough of it is correctable for Scherzer to get back on track as one of the best (top 5) starters in the game. Let’s be honest, the overwhelming majority of pitcher problems are tied to fastball command and that’s the biggest issue for Scherzer here. Like I said, working the fastball up in the zone isn’t necessarily a bad thing and it’s still been a net positive for him, but my guess is that too often when he’s trying to work up, he just misses and winds up middle.

Wednesday night was a microcosm of just how excellent and infuriating he can be at the same time. His dominance was obvious, but 33% of the six hits he allowed left the yard and put him in danger of not even winning a 20-strikeout complete game. His velocity is right in line with last year’s and his slider is as good as ever. I don’t think there are any health issues underneath the increased homers so I’d confidently buy Scherzer in any scenario. There was likely no real discount to be had before Wednesday and there certainly isn’t after, but there’s no reason not to pay full price and offer up a premium first/second round bat if that’s the kind of trade you’re looking to make.