Throwing Heat Week 7

The season has begun and we are back with Throwing Heat! For those who didn’t read these articles last season, this weekly article focuses on pitchers who are pitching well. When we are further into the season it will be based on a pitcher’s previous three starts but for now, it will just be their most recent starts.

The beauty of this article is how it highlights all types of pitchers from the best in the league to pitchers who are barely rostered. If someone is on a hot streak they will be in this article. I will also tell you if the hot streak is legit or if it appears to be a façade. I hope you enjoy it!

*Stats as of 6/7*

MacKenzie Gore, SDP

Last three starts: 19 innings pitched, 0.47 ERA, and an 11.84 K/9

The debut of MacKenzie Gore was long-awaited after injuries and just a mysterious 2021 season where we didn’t hear much about Gore at all. Luckily he got to make his debut this season and he has not disappointed one bit.

In eight starts and nine appearances, Gore has pitched 48 innings which come with a 1.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Everything just looks fantastic. Strikeouts? Yup, he has a 30% strikeout rate. Is he limiting home runs? Yup, his HR/9 sits at just 0.19. Okay but has he just been lucky? Not really, he holds a .292 BABIP, 2.22 FIP, 3.11 xFIP, and a 3.20 SIERA.

MacKenzie Gore looks like the stellar pitcher many people thought he could become. He is a future Ace in waiting. Something to note is that he only pitched about 50 innings last year and about 100 the prior year, so he will likely be limited down the road.

Jameson Taillon, NYY

Last three starts: 23 innings pitched, 0.78 ERA, and a 6.65 K/9

This three-start span from Jameson Taillon has been extremely impressive. The 0.78 ERA comes with a 1.79 FIP and 20.5 K-BB% where his walk rate was just 1.3%. What I think is most impressive about this stretch is the fact that in these three starts he pitched eight innings, eight innings, and seven innings. Going deep into games is a rarity these days, especially like this.

So how is he doing this? For those who don’t know much about Taillon is that when he is on it’s because his fastball is doing work. He upped his fastball usage in these three starts and since it was working so well he started pairing it with his changeup more. This lethal combination has lead to zero home runs and a 1.7 Barrel% against in these three starts.

Leaning away from just these three starts Jameson Taillon has had a successful season overall as well. In 10 total starts he holds a 2.30 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with underlying metrics to match it. While we discussed the fastball and changeup combination in his last three starts I think the success he is having truly comes from his cutter.

Taillon has reshaped his cutter adding a lot more vertical movement to it. Last season it have average movement to now elite movement as you can see on the chart below.

While this hasn’t resulted in a higher SwStr% it has resulted in a much lower contact rate overall and a lower contact rate in the zone. This is big because unlike last season Taillon now has four pitches in his arsenal.

Taillon should be able to continue what he is doing and will continue to be a pleasant surprise this season as well.

Zack Wheeler, PHI

Last three starts: 18.2 innings pitched, 2.41 ERA, and a 12.54 K/9.

It’s nice to see Zack Wheeler being an Ace again. After a late start to the season due to a shoulder issue and a blow-up in Miami Wheeler has been nothing but a stud. While we are at it he could have been the best draft day pick right before the season with people fading him.

Since May 1st Zack Wheeler has had six starts where he put together a 1.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 32% strikeout rate. You can expect more of the same moving forward.

Devin Smeltzer, MIN

Last three starts: 17.2 innings pitched, 2.04 ERA, and a 5.60 K/9.

Let’s talk about Smeltzer as a whole since he has only pitched five starts so far this season. He currently holds a 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 6.7 K-BB%.

The K-BB% isn’t great because of the low strikeout rate (12.5%). The good news about that is that he has a 7.6 SwStr% and 25.9 CSW% which means that the strikeout rate should rise. Smeltzer has a career 17.2% strikeout rate so I would figure around there.

His 1.93 ERA comes with a .217 BABIP (low), 86.2 LOB% (high), a 3.40 xERA, 3.78 FIP, and 4.64 xFIP. Clearly, there is some luck here but we obviously know Smeltzer isn’t a sub-two ERA pitcher, can he be a mid-three ERA pitcher? Metrics say yes.

I know the 4.64 xFIP is worrisome but Smeltzer has never had a career average home run per nine it has always been above average so I wouldn’t look at his xFIP too much. The 4.90 SIERA certainly isn’t great though, although SIERA does favor strikeout heavy pitchers.

Smeltzer can be a decent ratios, weak contact type of pitcher. Kind of like what he was in 2019 where he had a 3.86 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. I would expect that from him moving forward which makes him a solid streaming option in certain situations.