Throwing Heat Week 4

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Austin Gomber

Last two weeks: 12.0 IP 3.75 ERA 1.00 WHIP 27.7 K%

Did you know Gomber now has three straight games where he nabbed a quality start? Did you know that one of them was at home and one of them was against the Dodgers? Starting the season with a 3.38 ERA in four starts might spark some fantasy manager’s interests but I am here to tell you, don’t fall for it.

His 3.38 ERA comes with a 4.55 FIP, 4.30 xERA, and 5.03 xFIP. All for good reason! Let’s start basic here, his BABIP is currently cemented at .160 while his career average is .287 and his LOB% sits at 67.6% while the league average is around 72%. This means on the surface everything seems fine but really down below there could be trouble. It’s kind of like an iceberg where it’s small up top but below is a behemoth wrecking ball of ice. Have you seen the movie Titanic?

You don’t have to dive far to find out the first big issue. It’s his atrocious walk rate of 17.2%. Robbie Ray laughs at Gomber. Sure a 0.84 HR/9 will help but that won’t last long. With a high barrel rate against him, his home run rate will eventually rise and we haven’t even mentioned the biggest factor here which is Coors Field. If Gomber has this high of a walk rate and starts giving up more home runs (which he will) he will quickly become a disaster. 

Zach Eflin

Last two weeks: 13.0 IP 2.08 ERA 1.00 WHIP 18.4 K%

Eflin truthers have enjoyed his success thus far this season, but they probably expected more strikeouts. Coming off of a season where he had a 28.6% strikeout rate he has been unable to match it thus far this season (19.2 K%). The question here is why?

Typically strikeout rate and SwStr% go hand in hand. Last season Eflin’s SwStr% was 10.2% and his 28.6% strikeout rate didn’t exactly line up. There are always outliers though! A pitcher like Aaron Nola who has exceptional command can rely on getting called strikes instead. Eflin does meet that criteria so perhaps that strikeout rate will rise.

If you are an Eflin believer then trust your research and keep holding on. If you aren’t and happen to have a share of him, consider trying to trade him. His xwOBAcon and hard-hit rate are well above last season. He is leaning on the four-seam too much and his command with it hasn’t been all that great. I could see Zach Eflin going either having slight regression or massive regression, but only time will tell.

Max Scherzer

Last two weeks: 13.0 IP 0.00 ERA 0.69 WHIP 39.6 K%

It’s early but we might be seeing his “f you” season to all of the haters worrying about him this year. 

Justin Dunn

Last two weeks: 10.0 IP 2.70 ERA 1.10 WHIP 25.6 K%

Don’t look now but Dunn is making things really interesting. Dunn is going four-seam/curveball heavy and I am here for it. His fastball velocity is up over two MPH and it’s leading to an increase in vertical movement. 

In his last start against a hot Red Sox offense, his four-seam had eight whiffs and eight called strikes leading to a 30% CSW rate (wild). On top of that, his curveball induced seven whiffs and seven called strikes leading to a 36% CSW rate. Both above average. 

What does this mean moving forward for Mr. Dunn? Well every underlying metric under the sun calls for regression, especially when it comes to individual pitch metrics. I will say though, he went from being a pitcher you couldn’t roster to a pitcher you could stream in the right situation.

Nick Pivetta

Last two weeks: 9.2 IP 3.72 ERA 1.24 WHIP 17.9 K%

So is Pivetta a thing now? Is he finally breaking out and going to become the darling we all wanted him to be? Sorta, but not really.

Pivetta has always had the stuff to become a great pitcher. The issue was always his command and he seemed better suited as a reliever. This season he has located his four-seam really well consistently hitting the top portion of the zone. The slider? Not so much. The curveball? Yea he has hit the top or bottom of the zone quite often. 

Where does this leave us? He has such a weird fascinating profile. The curveball has elite movement but doesn’t create whiffs and gets smacked hard. The slider has performed well even with the lack of command. The four-seam has been mediocre but does induce a ton of whiffs. There are a lot of contradictions here and it might just be a matter of sequencing.

His 3.48 ERA comes with a 4.02 FIP which is fine but his deserved ERA, based on quality contact, is at 5.01 showing regression. Additionally he urgently needs to bring that walk rate down. It’s hard to predict what will happen in Pivetta’s future but I am excited to find out.





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Crazyhurdlersmember
2 years ago

Is there any chance this article can be a feature for Sunday afternoon? My league weekly moves set on Sunday night and so by today I’ve already made pickups for two-start targets like Gomber who now I’m regretting!

Websmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Crazyhurdlers

lol

Allan Gustafsonmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Crazyhurdlers

Regretting now??? 😉

Crazyhurdlersmember
2 years ago

Me reading this article yesterday:
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Crazyhurdlersmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Crazyhurdlers

Me at Gombers 1st pitch:
comment image&imgrefurl=https://giphy.com/explore/hitting-iceberg&docid=biFzRMQ_NVbtDM&tbnid=9II9oOEuZR1MEM&vet=1&w=422&h=200&hl=en-us&source=sh/x/im

Crazyhurdlersmember
2 years ago
Reply to  Crazyhurdlers

Me and all of Gombers owners mid game:
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