Throwing Heat Week 3

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Carlos Rodon
Last two weeks: 14.0 IP 0.00 ERA 0.36 WHIP

Not even a month into the season we have already seen our second no-hitter of the season. Carlos Rodon was locked in and he was one toe away from completing a perfect game. What a fantastic story though, the guy was non-tendered, coming off multiple injuries, refused to go to teams that wanted him in the bullpen, and has now thrown a no-hitter.

Let’s talk moving forward. Rodon has one very notable change this season, velocity. Last season his fastball averaged 93.0 MPH and this season it has risen to 95.5 MPH. The new velocity of the four-seam has developed more rise to the pitch and completely transformed it. Thus far this season it has done nothing but induce weak contact and create whiffs. Throughout his career, his four-seam has averaged an SwStr% of 6.4% and this season it currently holds a 15.7% rate.

On the surface, the 0.00 ERA comes with a 2.16 FIP, 100% LOB%, 0.71 BABIP, and 26.0 K-BB%. Small samples are fun, aren’t they? Rodon is a former first-round pick with a good amount of pedigree and has the arsenal to sustain success. If I had to guess, I would say Rodon finishes with an ERA around 3.70 and a 25.0 K%.

Dane Dunning
Last two weeks: 15.0 IP 0.60 ERA 0.80 WHIP

Coming off of a solid MLB debut last year, Dunning is off to another good start. Three starts in and Dunning has a 0.60 ERA, 2.29 FIP, and 24.1 K-BB%. While the three percent increase in strikeout rate is great, the drop in walk rate by over six percent is fantastic.

Dunning’s stuff has always been above average it was a matter of his command coming along. So far he has consistently kept the sinker, slider, and changeup at the bottom of the zone. His zone rate has increased by five percent and his first strike by 10%. These are both great because his control is better and getting ahead in the count leads to better results. But do you want to know what the best thing is about this? He is throwing in the zone more but his zone contact rate is down by over six percent. So Dunning is now throwing in the zone more, getting ahead in the count more, and opposing hitters are making less contact. What more can you ask from him?

Jacob deGrom
Last two weeks: 20.0 IP 0.45 ERA 0.70 WHIP

There isn’t much to say here. He is flat out the best pitcher in the world. His velocity has increased again and in his last two starts he has 28 total strikeouts. 14 in each start. The GOAT.

Anthony DeSclafani
Last two weeks: 17.0 IP 1.06 ERA 1.06 WHIP

The 31-year-old has had three starts this season and has surpassed most expectations. With a 1.06 ERA his walk rate is down, the strikeout rate is up, and the ground ball rate is way up. The man we like to call Tony Disco has started to make a change in his arsenal. Whether it is on purpose or not is something we will have to find out.

Both of his fastballs the sinker and four-seam have started to move horizontally. The shape of both pitches looks different and it seems to be working. We have to wait and see if there is any news on him switching up his grips but it leaves me curious to see if it keeps working. Typically in terms of pitches, vertical movement leads to strikeouts so moving forward his strikeout rate might drop and he will likely be a ground ball pitcher.

JT Brubaker
Last two weeks: 15.1 IP 1.76 ERA 1.04 WHIP

JT Brubaker has been straight fire (that’s what kids say these days). The 1.76 ERA comes with some luck but his 27.3 K% and 29.3 CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs) are a great sign of things to come.

The new Pirates regime seems to be doing things right. They took JT’s best pitch and told him to throw it more than ever. The overall usage is only slightly up but it has become his most thrown pitch. He drew back the usage of his sinker and started to mix in the four-seam with it. The results on both of his fastballs have significantly improved both in quality of contact given up (.000 ISO on both) and SwStr%.

The new life in the four-seam now gives JT a pitch he can hit the zone to induce whiffs. To me, this helps transform him as a player. He hits the three big factors you want to see in an arsenal. 1) A pitch that he can get whiffs within the zone (four-seam). 2) A pitch that hitters will chase outside of the zone (slider). 3) A pitch that he can hit the zone with on command and create weak contact (sinker). Call me optimistic but JT has sneaky value right now.

Jeff Hoffman
Last two weeks: 15.1 IP 2.93 ERA 1.43 WHIP

Jeff Hoffman was blessed with the opportunity to leave Coors Field and he has taken full advantage. In three starts Hoffman has impressed with a sub-three ERA. While the FIP shows a 4.46 deserved ERA and his LOB% is unsustainable, the BABIP is at .318 which is right at his career average. Rule of thumb for those who don’t know, always relate a player’s BABIP to their career average and not league average.

Some might say my current pessimistic approach towards Hoffman will come from him potentially blocking Michael Lorenzen and they might be right. But Hoffman’s barrel rate of 10.9% and .424 xwOBA on his fastball should be setting off some alarms. While they technically aren’t stabilized yet all of his expected metrics show massive regression. Both of his four-seam and changeup have a wRC+ over 120 and the fastball a .802 OPS. That is all very bad. Especially since he throws his fastball more than any other pitch.

Hoffman is okay to own and stream for now but ride the train until it comes off the rails. It seems inevitable and when Michael Lorenzen is healthy and takes his spot in the rotation the world will be right again.