Throwing Heat Week 20

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Charlie Morton, ATL

Last three starts: 2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 33.3 K%

There was some worry about Morton when the sticky substance crackdown came to fruition. It was because right at that time he went through a little rough stretch and his spin rates had dipped. That seems to be just a coincidence now, since July 1st Morton has a 3.04 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 30.0 K%. He is just being typical Charlie Morton, tossing those fastballs in the perfect location and using his ridiculously good curveball to create strikeouts. 

Just how good is his curveball? In terms of whiffs in the heart of the zone, his curveball is ranked third. In the shadow zone (edge of the strike zone), first. In the chase zone (just outside of the zone), first as well. The dude’s curveball is elite in terms of horizontal movement as well as above average in vertical movement. 

Morton is going to be solid as always as long as he is on the mound. He has always been a fantastic pitcher and he came at a dirt-cheap price this draft season. Between the wins he should obtain as well as the strikeouts he should be an SP2 until the end of the season. 

Shohei Ohtani, LAA

Last three starts: 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27.4 K%

The clear MVP candidate just keeps on dominating in all aspects of baseball and boy is it a joy to watch. His season is something we will look back on years from now and debate if it was one of the greatest seasons ever by any athlete. In terms of pitching, on the season Ohtani has a 2.79 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 29.6 K%, and 3.74 SIERA in 18 starts. The guy is amazing. 

Zack Greinke, HOU

Last three starts: 1.89 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 14.3 K%

Ah good ole Zack Greinke, it’s going to be a sad day when he retires because not only is he fun to watch but the way he deals with the media is nothing short of hysterical. Plus who doesn’t love to see an eephus pitch? 

Greinke continues to be successful but most importantly, consistent. Every month this season he has had an ERA under 3.89. He isn’t like Aaron Nola who drives you insane every other start, so mentally he’s a nice change of pace. The strikeouts have completely dissipated as he has a strikeout rate under 20% for the first time since 2010. It works though because you didn’t draft him for strikeouts, you drafted him for ratios and that’s what you are getting. It is also what you will continue to get for the rest of the season. 

Jack Flaherty, STL

Last two starts: 1.50 ERA, 0.58 WHIP, 31.0 K%

After having a fantastic first two months of the season Jack Flaherty was shut down for roughly two months to heal from an oblique injury. Typically pitchers don’t pitch all that great coming off an injury but Flaherty has worked out well and hasn’t skipped a beat. 

There isn’t much to be worried about moving forward, at least in my opinion. Some people worried about the low BABIP and hard contact before his injury calling for regression but it is kind of expected. Flaherty isn’t a sub-three ERA pitcher. Sure he did it once on a remarkable run in the second half of 2019 but I’m not sure he will ever reach that elite level. The slider and curveball are both really good and if he does get that four-seam to take a step forward you could see him go into another gear but until that happens I think he will continue to settle in around that three ERA mark. 

Josiah Gray, WSH

Last three starts: 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 29.0 K%

No doubt Josiah Gray has been great so far in his very young career as an MLB pitcher. His overall 3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 28.0 K% are numbers a lot of pitchers would kill to have. Here is the worry, it comes with a 6.71 FIP, .206 BABIP, 100% LOB% (Fangraphs rounds up), 4.54 xFIP, and 4.01 SIERA. All of those numbers show some big-time past luck, but what does give me hope is his SIERA.

SIERA year in and year out proves to be one of, if not the most predictive statistic there is for pitchers. A 4.01 SIERA is pretty darn good and shows that he has the skill level to be a solid pitcher. In terms of statistics, some might prefer K-BB% over SIERA and Gray’s K-BB% sits at 20.0%, roughly six points higher than the league average. I think the future is bright for Gray as his slider, curveball, and four-seam all have serious whiff potential. With better command and more time to hone his craft, he could take a big step forward. Keep holding and enjoy the ride. 

Marco Gonzales, SEA

Last three starts: 0.43 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 22.7 K%

This has been a wild season for Marco Gonzales. Coming off three straight seasons with having an above-average ERA he walked into July with a 5.10 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Since July though, he has had a 3.09 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and that includes a seven-run blow-up on July third. Take that out and look at his stats starting from July 9th and his ERA sits at 1.87. 

Marco decided to dump his curveball dropping its usage from over 16% to just 8%. I tried to figure out why this helped because it wasn’t that bad of a pitch but I couldn’t seem to find anything substantial. In place of the curveball he started to throw his sinker more and all of a sudden everything is clicking. I think it could be as simple as a sequencing issue and his stuff might just play better when not including the curveball. 

As far as the rest of the season it’s tough for me to say whether this can stick or not. Marco has had success before so maybe he figured something out, or maybe he is just in the zone? Either way, his numbers in August are ridiculous with a 1.8 Barrel%, .187 wOBAcon, 0.00 dERA, and 29.6 CSW% so you might as well keep riding the hot hand right?