Throwing Heat Week 16

The season has begun and we are back with Throwing Heat! For those who didn’t read these articles last season, this weekly article focuses on pitchers who are pitching well. When we are further into the season it will be based on a pitcher’s previous three starts but for now, it will just be their most recent starts.

This article’s beauty is that it highlights all types of pitchers from the best in the league to pitchers who are barely rostered. If someone is on a hot streak they will be in this article. I will also tell you if the hot streak is legit or if it appears to be a facade. I hope you enjoy it!

*Stats as of 8/29*

Justin Steele, CHC

Last three starts: 0.52 ERA, 30.8 K%, 1.04 WHIP

Justin Steele kind of came out of nowhere, huh? In his last ten starts he has pitched 54.1 innings with a 1.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. That ERA comes with solid underlying ERA metrics proving that this seems to be real. Most notably though, in these ten starts his strikeout rate is an impressive 28.8%.

So where the heck did this come from? To be honest I am not too sure. He hasn’t had a velocity bump or a pitch mix change. The Eno Sarris metrics like Location+ and Stuff+ don’t love him and his chase rate isn’t even that impressive either.

His SwStr% has risen from 10.1% to 13.8% in the second half and it looks like it stems from his four-seam. His four-seam went from having an 8.1 SwStr% to a 12.3 SwStr% and the only thing I see is a slight shift in making the pitch more horizontal.

I do like Steele and I did like him coming into the season but I did not see this happening. I’m not sure a two-pitch pitcher who doesn’t have two overwhelming pitches can sustain this. Of course, if you have him rostered you might as well ride it out but just temper your expectations.

Brady Singer, KCR

Last three starts: 1.42 ERA, 28.2 K%, 0.89 WHIP

Overall Brady Singer has been a great pitcher having a 3.15 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the season. His 25.6K% is good enough and his low walk rate of 6.2% is a pleasant surprise. He had a tough June but has rebounded nicely pulling out a 2.05 ERA in July and 2.23 ERA in August.

Moving forward I think this is kind of who Brady Singer will be. He has a great sinker and slider combination with a changeup to back it up. I see more of a middle-three ERA but a pitcher with solid ratios with a decent strikeout rate. He won’t be a show-stopper but will be solid enough.

Julio Urias, LAD

Last three starts: 1.06 ERA, 30.8 K%, 0.82 WHIP

Coming into 2022 there seem to be a lot of people not in on Julio Urias. It could have been the draft price but it was still a bit shocking.

After his 2021 breakout season where he posted a 2.96 ERA he has followed it up with a 2.32 ERA in 25 starts this season. His strikeout rate has dipped a bit but he still continues to keep the ball in the park and limit the walks.

The absolute best thing about Julio is his three-pitch mix. He only throws three pitches in a four-seam, curveball, and changeup. None of them let up hard contact, all have a wRC+ against under 85, and all of them have decent strikeout capability. Going back to Eno Sarris’ pitching metrics Julio Urias is amongst the top in terms of stuff and location combined.

Julio Urias is just so solid in what he does and he does it well. I think he will continue to be one of the more consistent arms in the league and a pitcher fantasy players can rely on.

Sonny Gray, MIN

Last three starts: 1.59 ERA, 31.3 K%, 0.88 WHIP

Sonny Gray has always been a pitcher I just could not quit on. He has a bunch of pitches, a ton of movement, and if healthy can be flat-out dominant in certain stretches. This season he has been relatively healthy racking up 20 starts with a 3.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

His 3.04 ERA has really come from this fantastic seven-start stretch he has been on recently where he has pitched 37.2 innings with a 1.91 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. In this time his ground ball rate has risen to 46.1% and his home run rate has dipped to just 0.72. It’s been a beautiful stretch of starts from Gray and I just hope he can stay healthy.

Austin Voth, BAL

Last three starts: 1.53 ERA, 14.5 K%, 0.96 WHIP

Austin Voth has become a new man since joining the Baltimore Orioles! Coming over from Washington the Orioles decided to make Voth a starter (mostly) for their team. Since coming over to Baltimore Voth has posted a 2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 20.7 K%. Pretty darn impressive.

Now we know Voth isn’t a strikeout pitcher but these ratios are juicy. Voth is finding success by creating weak contact. Since joining Baltimore his barrel rate against is just 6.8% and his hard hit rate against is just 37.5%. Both of those numbers are roughly around Carlos Rodon’s numbers. Now it’s not elite but I would say it is good and has been good enough for Voth to pitch well.

I see him more as a high three ERA pitcher with a low strikeout rate making him viable in 15-team leagues. Otherwise, he should be viewed as a solid streaming option.