Three Underowned NL Outfielders

I cover the National League outfield beat, but I occasionally abdicate my duties. I’m easily distracted. I also enjoy constructing narratives from a player’s statistics, and being on the NL outfield beat, I can only cover the same dudes so many times. But it truly has been a while, and given that market inefficiencies will always plague player valuation, I hear an old go-to of mine calling my name.

I’ll offer three NL outfielders at varying level of ownership (per Yahoo!’s tallies), make a case for each, and offer names of other more-owned NL outfielders to drop (or trade, given their inflated perceived values) in place of them. Got it? Cool. Let’s get cracking. (Ownership rates are current as of June 27.)

Less than 60% owned

Melvin Upton Jr., SD
58% owned

I do not totally get this, but I also do totally get this. Upton was bad for a while. The last three years were difficult to stomach, with his volatile offensive profile finally succumbing to his poor contact skills. The strikeouts grew, and the power shrank, and Upton was but a shell of his former self. He left a bad taste in our mouths.

Fast forward to 2016, and Upton has essentially accumulated as many wins above replacement (WAR) as he did in the previous three years combined. He’s on pace to hit 23 home runs and steal 35 bases. That’s a massive year, even if he hits at the Mendoza Line. Except he’s hitting better than league average.

I can really only interpret Upton’s current ownership as lingering skepticism of his abilities. He’ll never be the king of contact, but at least his overall contact rate (Contact%) is the best it has been since his career-best 2012 season. In other words, there’s non-zero hope that his strikeout rate (K%) can hover around 25 percent like it currently does. And his all-fields approach — he’s sporting the lowest pull rate (Pull%) of his career and his highest opposite-field rate (Oppo%) since 2008 — plus low pop-up rate supports an elevated batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

In light of this, there’s a solid chance the home run pace slows. But he is making the hardest contact of his career, and it’s not like he hasn’t sported a home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) in the mid-teens before. Meanwhile, there’s no reason to believe he’ll stop running — that’s a matter of opportunity and will, both of which Upton currently possesses.

Even if we give him 18 homers, 30 steals, a .240 average — you’ll take that, right? And he plays for the terrible San Diego Padres who have no worthwhile alternatives, so he’s not going anywhere. Jump in.

In redraft formats, I prefer Upton to: Jason Heyward (82%), Carlos Gomez (72%), Joc Pederson (67% owned)

Less than 40% owned

Jayson Werth, WAS
32% owned

Werth isn’t the juggernaut he used to be. Remember when he hit 36 home runs and stole 20 bases for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009? Barely? Yeah, me too. He can still swing it a bit, though, and his role as part of a potent Washington Nationals lineup plays up his value.

Werth is hitting the ball hard and pulling the ball frequently and hitting very few pop-ups — all good things, all good things. He’ll hit 20 homers if you let him — or, perhaps, if he lets himself, given it’s always injuries that prevent Werth from realizing his potential. (He averaged only 471 plate appearances each of the last four years.)

Still, you’ll take 20 home runs, 140 runs plus RBI, and a .250 batting average in deeper leagues. You’re probably doing worse right now, ya dingus.

Within this tier, I also like: Yasmany Tomas (31% owned), Trayce Thompson (21% owned)

In redraft formats, I prefer Werth to: David Peralta (46% owned)

Less than 20% owned

Derek Dietrich, MIA
7% owned

I’ve always been a fan of Dietrich, so it has always been a little disheartening to see him get so few at-bats. At 26 years old, he ain’t getting younger, but it’s not like he can’t help a typically bad Miami Marlins ballclub, even if it has to be in a super utility role.

Fortunately for the Marlins, they’re not bad, at least not right now. Meanwhile, Dietrich is finally seeing mostly full-time reps. He has 20-homer power, which is not currently on display. Fortunately, Dietrich is benefiting from an elevated BABIP that’s making him look like a stud. While that’s a reason in itself to sell high, one should consider buying low on the power. Also, in light of posting the best strikeout rate of his career so far, Dietrich should flirt with at least a league-average batting average like he did last year.

If the BABIP stays afloat — in other words, if it doesn’t fall into the .270s like it had prior to 2016 — Dietrich could post a something like a .270/.350/.450 season with 20 home runs and eligibility at second base to boot. His peripherals don’t indicate there’s any reason to doubt his power, so we may be witnessing the calm before the storm here.

I don’t know if Dietrich is starting material in standard formats; second base suddenly got its act together, although this could all be a fallacy of my own creation as well. Regardless, Dietrich is a legitimate option in deeper mixed leagues right now, yet is essentially being treated as bench fodder in NL-only formats. He’s worth an investment, even if the Marlins eventually cast him aside, as they are wont to do with him. But it doesn’t look like it’s in the blueprints for this year.

Within this tier, I also like: Michael Taylor (7% owned), Mallex Smith (DL – 5% owned)

In redraft formats, I prefer Dietrich to: Domingo Santana (14% owned), Ben Paulsen (11% owned), Nick Markakis (11% owned)