Three Prospect Patterns

In redraft and shallow keeper formats, I tend to avoid most prospects. The bust rate is brutal. However, deeper dynasty leagues force everybody to play in the prospect pool. After five years of ottoneu and other deep formats, I’ve started to notice some things.

When a person does something long enough, they start to see patterns. Sometimes these trends contain meaningful information. In other cases, they’re merely confusing or outright misleading. A lot of the things we think we know about fantasy baseball are tied to these false flag patterns.

My deepest league – one I often reference on these interweb pages – is The Devil’s Rejects. It’s a 20 team, 45 player roster 5×5 OBP league. We keep 28 players each winter. I mention this league because we’re currently in round seven of our 17 round slow draft.

Practically all the top 150 prospects are kept. Additionally, upcoming mid-first round draft talents like Greyson Jenista, Seth “Hold My” Beer, Brice Turang, and the rest of the top 30 2018 draft prospects are already owned. Orelvis Martinez, a 15-year-old Dominican, was selected in the third round. Garrett Mitchell, the top prospect in the 2020 draft (yes, not 2019), was taken in the fifth round. My leaguemates reach deeeeeeep for potentially elite talent. Meanwhile, good-not-great major leaguers like Mike Leake have yet to be drafted.

As a contender, my role with prospects is to hunt for under-appreciated talent. I try to snag guys who slip through the cracks then wait for the hype machine to catch up. The hype machine dawdles. Sometimes, despite enticing results, fifth outfielder Jason Martin turns out to be a fifth outfielder. And sometimes Tyler O’Neill builds enough value to be traded for a just-broken-out James Paxton. It’s all about throwing enough of these guys against a wall, then converting them to major leaguers.

Anyway, that was something of a background tangent. Here are three common traits I find and the confusing outcomes that follow. I’m interested to hear your takes on these scenarios. Presumably, you’re interested in reading mine. So let’s do that.

1. High whiff rate, low strikeout rate hitters

Take a peek at Amed Rosario’s minor league swinging strike rates. At High-A, he had a 10.6 percent SwStr% despite only a 12.4 percent strikeout rate. He posted comparable whiff and strikeout numbers in a larger sample at Triple-A. Byron Buxton is a more extreme example. Ronald Acuna also fits in this bucket. These are prospects who are so much better than minor league pitchers that they don’t need to be efficient with their contact to avoid strikeouts. For nearly everybody in this profile, they’ll eventually run into hiccups at Triple-A or the majors. Non-premium prospects also suffer from the same disease.

Check out Hudson Potts, a decent third base prospect for the Padres. Mr. Potts has burgeoning power, an aggressive approach, and a big whiff rate. One of two things will happen in the future. He may continue to swing through pitches, eventually running into a developmental wall. The height of the wall depends on his raw talent.

Alternatively, he could make adjustments, learning how to make more consistent contact in the process. In 2015, Rhys Hoskins had an over-20 percent SwStr% at Low- and High-A. He tidied up to a 9.1 percent SwStr% at Double-A, 6.4 percent SwStr% at Triple-A, and 7.1 percent in the majors.

Near as I can tell, there’s no useful indicator for guessing which path a prospect will take. Scouting grades don’t seem to help, nor is there another stat to track. My take away: these high whiff guys make for good lotto tickets.

2. The low strikeout, low walk pitching “ace”

The Phillies have a phenomenal young pitcher by the name of Sixto Sanchez. He’s entering his age 19 season expected to take a second trip through High-A before moving on to Double-A. He has a 100 mph fastball, a full starter’s repertoire, and precocious command. So why is the 8.55 K/9 he posted in 13 Low-A starts his career high? Other far less prominent pitching prospects routinely rack up 12.00 K/9 in the lower minors.

Once again, there are two explanations. Fortunately, the negative path is correctable for most pitchers. Some guys are just way too adverse to allowing walks. Brandon McCarthy is a good example of a guy who caught onto this late in his career.

The 1.20 BB/9 Sanchez posted at Low-A makes it sound like he’s a borderline elite command. The truth is that he’s right around average command – superb for a low minors guy but also something like his 3.92 BB/9 Steamer projection for the majors. Combine Sixto’s velocity with his secondary stuff and he can afford to fill up the strike zone. He’s allowing balls in play, but his fastballs are knocking bats out of hands.

Sanchez won’t be challenge until the upper minors. There, he’ll have to learn to work the edges of the strike zone. His walk rate will increase. Once he learns to use his weapons, the strikeouts will come too. Don’t panic just yet. This extra developmental step can throw the brakes on promising prospects as they attempt to transition to the majors. Tyler Glasnow and Lucas Giolito come to mind.

3. Phantom Steals

Athletic minor leaguers like to run wild on the bases. Often, they’re overstating their true stolen base potential. Derek Fisher ripped off 16 steals at Triple-A in 384 plate appearances. He also tallied 21 home runs. That looks like 30/25 upside, right? Those 16 swipes were nearly matched by 10 caught stealings. He went 3-for-6 on the bases in the majors. Fisher is fast enough to clean up his instincts and rebound. I have to believe the offensively potent Astros are going to tell him to stay put on first base. He’s just one example among dozens of minor leaguers who pretend they have 20 or more steal upside.

Even guys with big stolen base totals can be suspect. Steamer600 projects Zack Granite to take 24 bases over a full season. After all, he stole 56 in 70 attempts at Double-A. An 80 percent success rate usually garners a green light. Granite is deceptively slow for a player of his profile. He has 55 or 60 grade speed which, while above average, is not typically associated with high stolen base totals. Perhaps his instincts will help his speed to play up – assuming he ever gets an opportunity. It’s safer to count on very few steals until he proves us otherwise.