Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: June 1, 2023

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June 1, 2023
Welcome to the first automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on May 30th.

Relievers

Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease).

Reliever Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Aroldis Chapman 100.4 99.1 98.0 -1.15 -1.25 -1.20
Scott Barlow 94.3 92.7 92.3 -0.39 -1.61 -1.00
Bryse Wilson 94.6 94.3 92.8 -1.57 -0.29 -0.93
Michael Fulmer 94.9 94.5 93.2 -1.30 -0.45 -0.88
Taylor Clarke 95.8 95.7 94.1 -1.60 -0.07 -0.83
Ryan Brasier 96.7 96.6 95.0 -1.59 -0.05 -0.82
Carl Edwards Jr. 94.6 93.5 93.3 -0.28 -1.09 -0.68
Austin Voth 94.1 93.4 92.9 -0.51 -0.70 -0.61
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= -.60 Average Change

 

Reliever Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Emmanuel Clase 97.3 98.1 100.6 2.50 0.80 1.65
Brent Suter 85.1 85.6 88.3 2.66 0.52 1.59
Robert Stephenson 96.1 98.4 98.8 0.44 2.27 1.36
Joe Kelly 98.9 99.9 100.9 0.93 1.03 0.98
Hector Neris 91.3 91.6 93.0 1.44 0.30 0.87
Giovanny Gallegos 92.9 94.1 94.5 0.39 1.23 0.81
Enyel De Los Santos 95.0 95.9 96.5 0.56 0.94 0.75
Griffin Jax 95.7 96.5 97.1 0.60 0.88 0.74
Chris Martin 94.2 94.9 95.6 0.75 0.68 0.72
Sam Hentges 95.8 96.2 97.2 1.04 0.36 0.70
Erik Swanson 92.1 92.5 93.5 1.00 0.36 0.68
Cole Sands 93.6 94.1 94.9 0.76 0.57 0.67
James Karinchak 93.7 94.5 95.0 0.44 0.89 0.66
Jordan Romano 95.4 96.5 96.6 0.06 1.14 0.60
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= .60 Average Change

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Julio Urías is a good example.

Starter Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Julio Urías 94.7 93.3 92.5 -0.84 -1.33 -1.09
Alex Faedo 94.0 92.6 92.3 -0.32 -1.42 -0.87
Dustin May 97.0 97.0 95.4 -1.61 -0.02 -0.81
Kevin Gausman 95.8 95.2 94.2 -1.00 -0.56 -0.78
Chase Silseth 94.9 93.6 93.4 -0.18 -1.28 -0.73
Chase Anderson 94.0 93.8 92.6 -1.21 -0.21 -0.71
Jack Flaherty 93.7 92.9 92.3 -0.58 -0.75 -0.66
Michael Kopech 96.6 96.5 95.3 -1.27 -0.03 -0.65
Chris Bassitt 93.1 92.0 91.9 -0.13 -1.12 -0.63
Anthony DeSclafani 93.6 92.4 92.4 -0.03 -1.17 -0.60
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= -.60 Average Change

 

Starter Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Jordan Lyles 87.7 91.2 92.1 0.95 3.50 2.22
Jordan Montgomery 91.3 92.8 94.0 1.20 1.54 1.37
Aaron Nola 91.2 92.4 92.4 0.02 1.21 0.62
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= .60 Average Change





 

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RonnieDobbs
10 months ago

I would wager that looking at recent velocity trends is meaningless for RP. I could see it indicating injury for an SP but a tick up for RP is worthless. A real pitcher isn’t going out there throwing as hard as they can in the first place. If I guy could really pitch, then he would be modeling consistency. What you are even trying to measure is pretty questionable.

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Thizzle13
10 months ago
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