Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: June 1, 2023
- Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
- MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
- Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews
This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.
Quick Note: The data for this article is through games played on May 30th.
Relievers
Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease).
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 100.4 | 99.1 | 98.0 | -1.15 | -1.25 | -1.20 |
| Scott Barlow | 94.3 | 92.7 | 92.3 | -0.39 | -1.61 | -1.00 |
| Bryse Wilson | 94.6 | 94.3 | 92.8 | -1.57 | -0.29 | -0.93 |
| Michael Fulmer | 94.9 | 94.5 | 93.2 | -1.30 | -0.45 | -0.88 |
| Taylor Clarke | 95.8 | 95.7 | 94.1 | -1.60 | -0.07 | -0.83 |
| Ryan Brasier | 96.7 | 96.6 | 95.0 | -1.59 | -0.05 | -0.82 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 94.6 | 93.5 | 93.3 | -0.28 | -1.09 | -0.68 |
| Austin Voth | 94.1 | 93.4 | 92.9 | -0.51 | -0.70 | -0.61 |
**>= -.60 Average Change
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 97.3 | 98.1 | 100.6 | 2.50 | 0.80 | 1.65 |
| Brent Suter | 85.1 | 85.6 | 88.3 | 2.66 | 0.52 | 1.59 |
| Robert Stephenson | 96.1 | 98.4 | 98.8 | 0.44 | 2.27 | 1.36 |
| Joe Kelly | 98.9 | 99.9 | 100.9 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Hector Neris | 91.3 | 91.6 | 93.0 | 1.44 | 0.30 | 0.87 |
| Giovanny Gallegos | 92.9 | 94.1 | 94.5 | 0.39 | 1.23 | 0.81 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 95.0 | 95.9 | 96.5 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 0.75 |
| Griffin Jax | 95.7 | 96.5 | 97.1 | 0.60 | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| Chris Martin | 94.2 | 94.9 | 95.6 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Sam Hentges | 95.8 | 96.2 | 97.2 | 1.04 | 0.36 | 0.70 |
| Erik Swanson | 92.1 | 92.5 | 93.5 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.68 |
| Cole Sands | 93.6 | 94.1 | 94.9 | 0.76 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| James Karinchak | 93.7 | 94.5 | 95.0 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.66 |
| Jordan Romano | 95.4 | 96.5 | 96.6 | 0.06 | 1.14 | 0.60 |
**>= .60 Average Change
Starters
Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Julio Urías is a good example.
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Urías | 94.7 | 93.3 | 92.5 | -0.84 | -1.33 | -1.09 |
| Alex Faedo | 94.0 | 92.6 | 92.3 | -0.32 | -1.42 | -0.87 |
| Dustin May | 97.0 | 97.0 | 95.4 | -1.61 | -0.02 | -0.81 |
| Kevin Gausman | 95.8 | 95.2 | 94.2 | -1.00 | -0.56 | -0.78 |
| Chase Silseth | 94.9 | 93.6 | 93.4 | -0.18 | -1.28 | -0.73 |
| Chase Anderson | 94.0 | 93.8 | 92.6 | -1.21 | -0.21 | -0.71 |
| Jack Flaherty | 93.7 | 92.9 | 92.3 | -0.58 | -0.75 | -0.66 |
| Michael Kopech | 96.6 | 96.5 | 95.3 | -1.27 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| Chris Bassitt | 93.1 | 92.0 | 91.9 | -0.13 | -1.12 | -0.63 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 93.6 | 92.4 | 92.4 | -0.03 | -1.17 | -0.60 |
**>= -.60 Average Change
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 87.7 | 91.2 | 92.1 | 0.95 | 3.50 | 2.22 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 91.3 | 92.8 | 94.0 | 1.20 | 1.54 | 1.37 |
| Aaron Nola | 91.2 | 92.4 | 92.4 | 0.02 | 1.21 | 0.62 |
**>= .60 Average Change
I would wager that looking at recent velocity trends is meaningless for RP. I could see it indicating injury for an SP but a tick up for RP is worthless. A real pitcher isn’t going out there throwing as hard as they can in the first place. If I guy could really pitch, then he would be modeling consistency. What you are even trying to measure is pretty questionable.
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