Thoughts On Early Hitting ADP

2023 Drafts are now in full force over at the National Fantasy Baseball Contest, which has become an industry leader in terms of research for average draft position (ADP) data. NFBC ADP is especially useful because it involves only paid contests and many of the top players in the world play on the platform. As of now, there have been 16 completed drafts on the site with many more being done as we speak. Most of these drafts are 15-team draft champions leagues which are 50-round draft and hold formats. After completing one of those drafts myself recently and looking at the ADP, here are some of my thoughts on how the early ADP is shaping up.

Catchers
The catching pool is about as deep as it has ever been. There are a ton of breakout guys from last season like Dalton Varsho, Adley Rutschman, Alejandro Kirk, MJ Melendez, and Willson Contreras to go along with established studs like J.T. Realmuto, Sal Perez, and Will Smith. What this means is if you play in any one catcher format, there is no reason to pay up at the position. There are easily 12 very good catchers and a number of passable one-catcher format guys that you can rotate in and out of your lineup. If you are in a two-catcher league, I think you still want at least one good one, but there are a lot more options available than in year’s past which means punting the catcher position may not mean you are rostering a truly terrible offensive player. My preferred strategy so far this draft season has been to grab one of the top 10 and then wait a bit before addressing the position again, but the depth at the historically shallow position gives you a lot of options in 2023.

Outfielders
Outfield is really ugly. On top of it just being much more shallow than in recent years, 13 of the top 70 outfielders are also eligible at other positions which mean they are more likely to be swooped up to play elsewhere by others.

If you are playing in a shallow Yahoo league where you only start three outfielders, this won’t be much of an issue. However, if you are playing in a traditional five outfielder league, this gets ugly quickly, especially if you are in a deeper format like a 15-team league. There are really about 20 outfielders that don’t have huge question marks. When there are guys like Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant, who were huge disappointments, going in the 30 outfielders, it speaks to the lack of depth.

UT Only
Those of you that play in leagues with lower eligibility requirements can ignore this section, however, in leagues where you have a 20 game requirement from the previous season, there are some interesting names on this list.

I will ignore Ohtani as he is a different kind of player than the rest. The first thing I noticed was Harper. Harper will enter the season without outfield eligibility because he was forced to DH much of the season due to injury. I think he will begin to drop his price even before we know what his plans are in terms of whether he will get surgery or not. If he needs surgery it could hold him out for the early part of the season. Now that his position eligibility is posted on NFBC (it was previously listed as OF because next year’s eligibility hadn’t been updated yet), I wonder if his price begins to drop.

The other big thing is that Francisco Alvarez, Shea Langeliers, and Mitch Garver all do not start the season with catcher eligibility. All three players will have their backers, but I think we will see their prices begin to drop as many people do not like drafting guys that don’t have a position to start the year. Personally, I am fine with rostering guys that are UT only, so I think this is a nice buying opportunity.

Middle Infielders
Middle infield has some interesting things in it in terms of how each of the two positions are looking.

Shortstop has been one of the deepest positions in the game for a few years and while that remains to be somewhat true, there are distinct drop offs in talent. There is a clear distinction between the first two tiers and the third tier (about forty picks). Then there is another drop off after Xander Bogaerts. There are still a ton of playable shortstops late, but the huge drop offs means that if you don’t get one of those top 12, you could be putting yourself behind the 8-ball.

Second base is somewhat similar in the big drop offs early. There is a clear top 3-5 but there are no second basemen going in the first two rounds of a 15-team league. The depth at second base is very suspect as well. 24 of the top 40 second basemen have eligibility elsewhere and I wouldn’t be very comfortable with starting many of them in most formats. There are some interesting sleeper guys, but it may be the weakest position from top to bottom.

Corner Infielders
First and third base have very similar looks to them as last year.

First base continues to be extremely deep with a lot of options from top to bottom. It may not be as stacked at the top end as years previous, but if you wait, you can still get usable pieces pretty much through the top 30 at the position.

Third base on the other hand is pretty ugly still. Adding to its ugliness is the fact that unlike first base, a lot of the players at the hot corner are also eligible elsewhere. The position is really top heavy with six players going in the top 50, but after that there are a ton of question marks.

Young Players
Let’s forget first rounders like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt being expensive because they have definitely earned that. However, the price of young MLB players and prospects are really high this year. Michael Harris II is second rounder going a round ahead of more proven players like Cedric Mullins and Randy Arozarena. Corbin Carroll, Oneil Cruz, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Vinnie Pasquantino are all top 100 players. Even without passing judgment on whether you think these players are worth it or not, I think this shows how aggressive the market is on youth.

Then you have the guys that haven’t even debuted yet like Jordan Walker (272.56) and Matt Mervis (317.44) who will continue to rise as the hype trains really get rolling. If you want some of these young guys, you will have to pay up for them especially in sharp draft rooms. I think a lot of these guys will be much cheaper in your ESPN and Yahoo leagues, but it is something that we will want to watch once their formats open for drafting.

Who are your favorite and least favorite hitters based on price?