Third Base Trends: Moustakas, Ramirez, Seager
With the second half looming, many of you are going to be looking for players to help you in the stretch run for a title (let’s hope, dedicated readers, that you’re among those in the top half of the standings). If you’re hurting at third base, there are a few opportunities that you might want to inquire about given recent trends.
On the season, Moustakas has hit a very respectable .268/.327/.490 with 15 home runs and 47 RBI and is probably a fringey-tier-two but easily top tier three kind of third base talent. But it’s possible Moustakas owners are fearing an extended slump after he put up a .212/.232/.481 line in his last 56 plate appearances. During that time, he’s walked less than 4% and fell into a funk that started to resemble some of the struggles that he had in 2011. In fact, if you toss out July 2 where he hit his grand slam, there really hasn’t been much in the way of production at all from him.
Should you go knocking on his owner’s door, point out the recent slump, the miserable platoon splits versus lefties (.221/.264/.337) and see if you can get them to overlook how brutal his batted ball luck has been recently (.200 BABIP last 56 PA). He’s not going to be much help in OBP leagues, but in standard roto, you’re probably going to be pretty happy with him.
Remember that down year that Hanley Ramirez had in 2011?
.243/.333/.379
.248/.323/.424
That’s 2011 above with 2012 below. I was pretty surprised to see that since I had it in my head that Ramirez was having a fine little season. It turns out, he was having a fine little season – in his first 54 games, Ramirez was hitting .276/.340/.505 with 11 HR, 37 RBI, and ten stolen bases. I guess we’ll have to see if it’s featured in “The Franchise” over at Showtime, but over his last 30 games, Ramirez has hit .193/.290/.266 with one HR and two SB, recently capping off his first half by introducing his fist to the dugout cooler. The cooler won.
Ramirez might be happy to know that over those miserable 30 games, his BABIP was just .220 and you’d have to expect him to return to somewhere around league average, even if he doesn’t sniff his career rate of .333. His batted ball rates are very much in line with his career, as is his plate discipline with one exception. He’s swinging at a lot more balls outside the strike zone, although he’s making contact with them at a career high rate of over 74%.
At the absolute least, I can’t see Ramirez being quite this bad for the remainder of the season and there wasn’t a whole lot to point to in the way of luck to suggest that his great start wasn’t sustainable. If you can find an owner with an itchy finger, grabbing him with the hope that the first 50 game version shows up isn’t a bad idea at all.
In perhaps deeper leagues and/or keeper leagues, you might want to consider Kyle Seager. In standard 10 team leagues, it’s possible he’s already found himself on many waiver wires as the solid start has run smack dab into a ripe pumkin. Over his first 48 games Seager hit .283/.323/.483 with six home runs, 31 RBI, and five stolen bases, and once he established with the Seattle Mariners that he was indeed a better option than Chone Figgins, owners starting snapping him off the wire.
But over his last 32 games, Seager has seemed lost, producing a .183/.283/.325 line, still with decent pop at four home runs. It might have been asking a little too much for him to maintain that hot start, but with just a .207 BABIP over these last 32 games, he’s likely going to have better days in front of him. He’s never really had the profile of a big power guy, but he could achieve something that resembles .270/.330/.400 from here on out, adding a half dozen home runs and steals along the way. He’s not a guy that will save your season, but a decent thumb in the hole of the dam should you have one — not to mention a nice speculative play for the future in keeper leagues.
Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.
moustakas or pedro alvarez, ROS?
probably depends on your league and your needs. If you need HR’s, everything else be damned, go with Alvarez. If you want a batting average north of .230 and decent remaining counting stats, go with Moustakas.
Moose Tacos all the way
Here’s a question no one knows how to answer: Ryan Zimmerman… did the cortisone shot flip the switch, or is it just a temporary band-aid? How much do I need to cover for him in the second half? I divested myself of all backup 3Bs since his hot streak started, with the hope that a clear waiver wire option would present itself if his arm fell off again. Anyone have a reasonable guess how likely that will be?
hard to say it’s coincidental – since his cortisone shot, Zim has gone .333/.394/.683 with five HR and six 2B. Only nine K’s in 66 PA too. His BABIP in that stretch is just .326 so it’s not insane luck as far as I can tell from the data. It also sounds like they’re willing to just keep dosing him with cortisone as the symptoms return and then decide on surgery when the season is over. If for some reason the Nats fall out of contention, that might happen earlier, but right now that’s not looking likely. Run with him.
I heard that doctors only allow 2-3 injections per year, so lets hope they time them right so he can ahem…. cheat? his way to success this year
I think the thing about cortisone is docs get nervous when they’re using it for relief of tendon/ligament pain because it can lead to added degeneration of the tissue. But Zim’s deal is bone on bone, so there’s really no added harm to repeated doses.
But, ahem, I’m no medical expert to be sure…
Great thoughts from both you guys. I hope you’re right… I’m not buying next year, even if a surgical option is possible and he is recovered enough to start the year, but if cortisone can get him through this year I’ll be plenty happy.
Currently have Aviles at 3B with Seager on the waiver. Who’s more likely to have value over the rest of the season?
pretty much too close to call. If you need RBI, go with Seager.
Thanks!
Also keep in mind Seager is 1 game from having 10 starts at 2b too if he can get one more start there he can qualify for it this year.
Hanley or Edwin Encarnacion ROS?
Depends on category needs. E5 edge in HR, RBI but probably not by a lot; Hanley obvious plus in SB. Other than that, their slash line might not look much different ROS. Nutty.
indeed. thank u sir!
There is nothing at all wrong with Moustakas. His numbers early last year were not luck related, they were horrible, godawful approach related. He has the best approach of any of their hitters. He has a ways to go against lefties, and that’s probably a year away, but he’s surprised me already based on how quickly he’s made adjustments. If somebody is down on him, I strongly recommend grabbing him, especially in keeper leagues. Don’t forget that the heat wave has driven the humidity down, and going forward those humid nights in the low 80’s at the K are going to be inviting for more gap power and HRs.