The Weird & the Wonderful — Hitters 4/8/25

While we remain in small sample territory, it’s always fun to look at the league leaders in various process-related rate metrics (though you can definitely go a layer deeper). Results are far less predictive right now, so let’s take a gander at which batters are leading in some of the statistics that we should actually care about right now, a least a little bit.

Who had Colt Keith leading baseball in walk rate after nine games?! While he posted double digit rates at the majority of his minor league stops, he recorded just a 6.5% mark during his rookie season last year. The power remains M.I.A., but his increase plate patience, driven by a significant decline in Swing%, is a good sign moving forward. It also could result in significantly higher value in OBP leagues than originally projected.

Marcell Ozuna has posted just three double digit walk rates over his entire career, so this counts as another surprise. I still doubt he could match last year’s career best 96 runs, but if his increased walk rate is any bit sustainable (more like mid-teens, rather than just into double digits), maybe he’ll come close.

Will Smith has gotten jiggy with the walks early on as he tries to rebound off the lowest wOBA of his career last season.

J.P. Crawford has always been a walker, so perhaps if he sustains even a mid-teen walk rate for a while, and avoids a weak BABIP, he could convince the Mariners to move him back up in the lineup. That would make a massive difference for his fantasy value since he doesn’t contribute much anywhere and needs the PAs to earn positive value.

Mike Yastrzemski has recorded solid walk rates before, though is coming off just an 8% mark last year. I actually can’t believe he’s already 34 years old, but he was a late bloomer, first making his MLB debut at age 28 back in 2019.

Wowzers, it’s been a bizarre start for Nathaniel Lowe. With a .404 wOBA, you probably had no idea he was leading baseball in strikeout rate! He stated over the offseason that he wanted to hit more fly balls, and so far he has. Combine that with the skyhigh strikeout rate, and it makes me think that maybe he’s selling out for more power. He’ll be an interesting name to monitor over the next month to see what happens next.

Michael Toglia was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners last year, but can he repeat? You can’t take advantage of Coors’ thin air if you’re striking out this often! Of course, he’s only played three games at home, versus six on the road, and he’s struck out a more normal 21.4% of the time at home, compared to an absurd 58.3% of the time on the road. He’s one of many Rockies that should probably be benched while on the road if it makes sense to do so in your league format.

Wow, it hasn’t been a good start for a pair of Nationals uber prospects, Dylan Crews and James Wood. The latter is shocking to see such a high strikeout rate given he also owns a single digit SwStk%. Looking at all his plate discipline metrics, I actually have no idea how he has struck out so often. That’s good news, as it should come down quickly, making him an ideal trade target.

Usually we’re all excited about a former catcher, who still holds eligibility, moving to first base full-time. However, the transition hasn’t been kind to Willson Contreras yet, as he sports an awful 1:16 BB:K ratio. There’s nothing us owners can really do except be patient and cross our fingers he snaps out of this.

Wait, wait, wait, so James Wood is not only striking out a ton, but when he has actually put the ball in play, it has mostly been a ground ball? This is scary because he posted a 55.6% GB% during last year’s debut, so instead of potentially lifting the ball more to take advantage of his power, he’s actually hitting even more grounders. That severely caps his home run upside.

It’s odd that William Contreras has always been a ground ball hitter, as he has posted marks in the mid-50% range for three straight seasons. It doesn’t make sense given that he ain’t fast and owns above average power. But hey, he has posted wOBA marks between .357 and .370 the past three seasons so it’s obviously working well enough for him. Obviously, a 72.7% GB% isn’t likely going to also work well enough for him, so the hope is he at least gets back to lifting around 30% of balls in play.

You definitely don’t want Kyle Stowers, whose only real potential fantasy contribution comes from his power, to be hitting so many grounders.

Gabriel Arias is another who owns obvious power, but simply hits too many grounders. That limits his home run upside despite the power and since he’s not a big basestealer and strikes out a lot, makes it difficult to carve out much fantasy value.

Is Bryan Reynolds’ triceps soreness messing with his batted ball profile? He is also striking out far more than normal, despite a stable SwStk%, so it’s curious.

I’ve been patiently waiting for a Vinnie Pasquantino power breakout, and uhhhh, this is one way to accomplish it without actually improving his underlying power! Of course, it won’t help his BABIP, which has been well below league average the last two seasons. It’s kind of hilarious he has scored just one run so far, which came from his homer.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. also just missed the strikeout rate leaderboard above. The early returns suggest he’s also selling out for power, which I could fully understand in his first full season with the Yankees and their home run haven of a park.

Adolis García has been a fly ball guy much of his career, but he’s going crazy now, and actually pairing it with astronomical HardHit% and Barrel% marks. We’ll see how sustainable this is, but it could give him a better chance of getting back to the 30-homer plateau.

Logan O’Hoppe has homered in four straight games, and now you know part of the reason why. He’s become fly ball happy! A happy O’Hoppe indeed.

José Ramírez has always been a fly ball hitter and has combined a low strikeout rate to drive his power, despite league averageish HR/FB rates. He’s doing it again so far this year, but taking that FB% even higher. At his age, I think my only question is about the stolen bases and whether we’ll be closer to 30 or 20 (there’s little chance he’s swiping 40 again!).

It’s been a strange start to Jose Altuve’s season, not just this league-leading IFFB% rate. Now age 35, you always wonder if a precipitous offensive decline is incoming. There are a number of red flags here over this early season small sample, so he’s worth monitoring.

It’s weird, most of Alec Burleson’s metrics are around the same as last year, except this big spike in IFFB%. And yet, his BABIP has surged! Funny thing, hit more pop-ups, raise your batting average! That BABIP ain’t going to last, but the IFFB% won’t either.

After never posting a BABIP below .310 over his previous three full seasons, Randy Arozarena fell to just .275 last year. You had to assume some semblance of BABIP rebound this year, but it’ll be hard to do when hitting so many pop-ups. Interestingly, he has also posted a 27.3% LD%, so that has helped offset some of the easy outs, but his BABIP still stands at just .150.

Not only has Bryson Stott quadrupled his IFFB%, but he has also become a fly ball hitter. Is he trying to sell out for power? His strikeout rate has also spiked, but his HardHit% has been cut in half. So, this looks more like just a bad start then change in offensive profile.

Oh dear, at age 27, Luis Robert Jr. should be in his prime and putting up some of the best offensive numbers he’ll post over his career. Most of his other metrics have moved in the right direction though, so I wouldn’t panic sell here.