The Weird and the Wonderful — Starting Pitchers Through May 2, 2023

Let’s finish up the week with one final look at the wackiest starting pitcher metric levels. Today, it’s all about the batted ball type distribution. Think grounders, liners, etc. Batted ball profile has a dramatic impact on performance, so it’s important to monitor, especially if a pitcher suddenly transforms into an extreme ground ball or fly ball pitcher.

These pitchers have been difficult to square up on for a line drive against.

Colin Rea has had an interesting career, as he’s been up and down between the minors and Majors, underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2016, pitched in Japan for a short period in 2021 and then again in 2022, and then returned to the Majors this year. In all this time, he has still barely recorded a full season’s worth of MLB innings. He has kept the line drives to a minimum this season, though that’s oddly paired with a low IFFB% as well. So the vast majority of balls in play against him have been grounders and fly balls. Over just 20.2 innings, this seems like it’ll normalize. When combined with his weak 7.8% SwStk%, he’s not a name you want anywhere near your fantasy team.

“If only he learned some control”. How often do we think that when describing young fireballers who clearly have the strikeout stuff to become an ace? This describes Edward Cabrera who had suppressed line drives, but has walked an absurd 19.8% of opposing batters. Improved control could come at any time, so he’s not to be given up on, but it’s hard to start him when you never know if you’ll get that two walk and eight strikeout performance or that seven walk and four strikeout outing.

These pitchers simply can’t stop those liners against.

Man, Luis Cessa popping up on all the negative leaderboards!

Miles Mikolas has posted a pretty narrow range of LD% marks since his 2018 return to the Majors, all finishing between 20.2% and 23.1%. So it’s not like he’s really struggled in the past. It appears his previous grounders have turned into liners, which has inflated his BABIP to .375. His pitch mix is the same as always and velocity down only ever so slightly, so I’d guess this batted ball profile will right itself in due time. That said, with a strikeout rate that has never even reached 20%, he’s the kind of low upside pitcher I’ll never roster.

Did you realize that not only is top prospect Grayson Rodriguez in the Majors, but has already made five starts?! A crazy .362 BABIP driven by that high LD% has overshadowed the fact that he has struck out 32.4% of opposing batters. I’d expect his LD% to drop down, meaning I think his debut has gone pretty well so far, as I care most about the strikeouts.

What’s a better in-play result for a pitcher than a popup?!

I drafted Graham Ashcraft in my shallow mixed league due to a strikeout rate surge during spring training. He’s been a perfect example of a blind squirrel finding a nut. So far the results have proven me right to be bullish, but the process was wrong. His strikeout rate has not carried over and is nearly as weak as last year’s, but he has massively outperformed both his SIERA and xERA, thanks to good fortune in all three luck metrics. Sure, the league leading IFFB% is great, and very surprising for a high GB% guy, but that’s accounted for in his xERA. He struggles with walks, sports an underwhelming 8.5% SwStk%, pitches in a hitter friendly home park, and for an offense that ranks just 20th in baseball in wOBA, limited the run support and win potential. What does that add up to? The ultimate sell high! And that’s exactly what I did, as my trade offer made a couple of days back was just accepted, as clearly his latest start sealed the deal for his new owner.

Seriously, what can Shohei Ohtani not do?

It’s too bad Luis Garcia just hit the IL with an elbow issue, as that’s always an ominous sign.

Chicks will want to watch these pitchers pitch. Why? Because chicks dig the long ball, and home runs are typically hit via the fly ball, of which these pitchers allow the highest percentage of!

Nestor Cortes has always been a fly ball pitcher, but this is extreme, even for him. He had never posted a mark above the 51.5% he posted in 2021. It’s rare to see a starting pitcher finish a season above 60%. Oddly, all those extra flies haven’t helped his BABIP, which actually sits above where he finished the last two seasons. Posting an extreme FB% in Yankee Stadium is scary, but he’s managed to limit baserunners thanks to better than average strikeout and walk rates.

I also drafted JP Sears in AL Tout Wars due to his newfound strikeout ability during spring training. Unlike Ashcraft, the strikeout rate spike has stuck, but he has performed poorly anyway, thanks to the combo of a mid-teen HR/FB rate and sub-70% LOB%. He’s actually in a good home park to be an extreme fly ball pitcher, but it hasn’t mattered yet, as he has posted nearly identical HR/FB rates home and away. The strikeout and walk rates suggest better days are ahead and he should eventually earn some AL-Only value, so I’ll continue to start him with my fingers crossed.