The Weird and the Wonderful — Pitchers Through Apr 14, 2024

Yesterday, I reviewed the extreme hitter performers that both sit atop and at the bottom of various statistical leaderboards. We don’t necessarily expect the majority of these results to continue, but it’s fun to review them. Strong early results could give some hitters a longer leash, increasing their job security, while weak results could result in a playing time cut. So even if we think regression or improvement would come, managers may already taking action on the early performances, rightfully or wrongfully. Therefore, we should be aware of the outliers.

Today, we’ll switch over to starting pitchers.

These pitchers have been strike-throwing machines:

Not only has Jared Jones thrilled with his 97+ MPH fastball, but he has been pumping in strikes like no other! His 2.8% walk rate is tiny, especially when looking at his short minor league career that never featured a walk rate better than 8.9%. Has this just been a hot three start stretch, or is Jones already an ace?

Joe Ryan has always had good control, but has now parlayed a velocity jump into an even lower walk rate, thanks to being one of just two with a strike% over 70%. It’s tough to face a pitcher with both sterling control and an elite ability to strike you out! And given his extreme fly ball ways, even a ball in play is most likely going to find an outfield glove.

It’s been a poor start for former top prospect Brandon Pfaadt, whose strike-throwing has improved his walk rate so far, but it hasn’t mattered at all. He’s missing bats and getting called strikes, but his biggest issue has been a high BABIP and keeping his fly balls allowed inside the park. His xERA both last year and this season so far suggest a lot of it has been bad luck. I would also expect his strikeout rate to rise given his 29.9% CSW%. Given his results, it’s natural to be nervous about acquiring him, but he looks like a pretty good target in deeper leagues that could come pretty cheap.

With his velocity back up and strikes accumulating, Chris Sale looks as good as ever, though the results haven’t exactly been there. He, too, has been victimized by the long ball, as he has struggled with his HR/FB rate every season since 2019. His SwStk% and CSW% both look like vintage Sale, so he also looks like a prime trade target, as I’m going to bet on those skills and his HR/FB rate and LOB% reverting closer to his career averages.

These pitchers might have trouble hitting the side of a barn:

What on Earth has happened to Michael Soroka?! The lack of strikes has resulted in more walks than strikeouts, and that’s embarrassing given the paltry 11.2% strikeout rate. Nothing in his pitch mix explains the major dropoff in results, so it’s hard to understand what’s wrong here. That said, pitching in front of a depleted White Sox offense would have made wins hard to come by even if he was pitching well. Since he’s not, and only has one full season to his name, which was a good one, back in 2019, there’s really no need to keep holding on hoping for the best.

If Jose Quintana isn’t throwing strikes, that should be a problem. Of course, he has continued to find ways to overperform his skills, something he has done often throughout his career. But a 5.16 SIERA and even worse 6.03 xERA would have me running for the hills if I owned him in a deep mixed or NL-Only league.

It hasn’t been a good three starts for Kyle Gibson, but then again, after a 5.05 ERA in 2022 and 4.73 mark last year, I don’t think anyone was counting on him to be much of a fantasy contributor.

Marcus Stroman’s first season on the Yankees has been interesting so far, as his strikeout rate sits at a career high, despite his lowest CSW%, while his walk rate has touched double digits for the first time. Sounds like a recipe for disaster once the strikeout rate declines to match the CSW%. If his strike% doesn’t improve, his ERA is going to be headed toward, and possibly even above, 4.00 rather quickly.

Balls in play are finding fielders’ gloves at an amazing rate for these pitchers:

Every year, there’s a group of pitchers with meh skills who have BABIP’d their way into the hot pickup of the week. Ronel Blanco is one of those names. Of course, a no-hitter is going to elevate the hype. But those skills, man, are just no good. His SIERA stands at an awful 4.79, suggesting he’s essentially the same pitcher as last year when he posted a 4.50 ERA. The strikeout rate ain’t good, either is the walk rate. However, one could argue he’s somewhat deserving of the low BABIP and ERA, as his xERA sits at a sparkling 1.74, marking a huge disconnect with SIERA. That’s likely because of his tiny 5.9% LD% and high 16% IFFB%, which is benefiting from a high 49% FB%.

So what does this tell me? That he has certainly stifled good contact over his three starts and perhaps is deserving of a lowish BABIP. But, that LD% is impossible to maintain and his BABIP is going to at least double. Then you’re left with a guy who doesn’t strike out enough, walks too many, and has never even pitched a full season as a starting pitcher. I wouldn’t even be starting him in a shallow league and would be nervous for the inevitable blowup in deeper leagues.

It’s weird that Tyler Glasnow has mostly posted better than league average BABIP marks, but elevated HR/FB rates. It defies logic, but then you realize he only has 553.2 MLB innings under his belt, and remember that it’s still a rather small sample size for those two “luck” metrics. Glasnow’s batted ball profile is the same as always, though his xERA actually validates his performance so far. Whatever, his owners should just be crossing their fingers that he remains healthy as long as possible.

Cody Bradford is another flavor of the week pickup, mostly thanks to unsustainably low BABIP and HR/FB numbers, along with a 2.8% walk rate that certainly won’t be maintained. He’s pulling a Blanco though with the low LD% and tons of fly balls allowed, but neither should continue. Perhaps he’ll accrue some AL-Only value, but I’m not interested in a mixed league.

Like Glasnow, is it really fair for hitters opposing Tarik Skubal? It’s already tough putting the ball in play, and now those balls in play are rarely falling for a hit. As usual, it’s weird seeing the .179 BABIP, but 14.3% HR/FB rate. All that his owners needed to see is he maintain last year’s velocity spike. He has, so acedom over a full season is a near lock.

These pitchers are seemingly getting dinked and dunked to death:

Are Luis Castillo owners getting antsy? There are some red flags here for sure, though he clearly has suffered from some poor fortune as well. His fastball velocity is down a mile per hour and his CSW% sits at a career low, and low enough to wonder how he has possibly managed to still strike out an identical rate of batters as last year. His inflated BABIP is also kind of justified thanks to an absurd 29.9% LD%, which is oddly paired with a 27.3% IFFB%. So he’s either allowing a line drive or inducing a pop-up, which is so strange! The velocity may be key here, so I’d monitor it and if it returns and his results follow, he should be in the clear.

Remember Patrick Corbin’s two elite seasons in 2018 and 2019? I don’t blame you if you don’t. Breakout came and breakout disappeared.

It’s been a bizarre season so far for Joe Musgrove. How has he managed to post the second highest SwStk% of his career and a CSW% over 30%, but just a 19.8% strikeout rate?! He’s allowed line drives like never before at a crazy 33.3% rate, which is certainly feeding into Statcast’s hilarious 8.40 xERA calculation. The velocity is down very slightly, but not enough to explain the poor start. I think he makes for a pretty good trade target, but since he doesn’t throw as hard as most of the top starters, he always worries me a little more.