The Weird and the Wonderful — Hitters Through Apr 25, 2023

Yesterday, I reviewed some of the early 2023 outliers in various hitting metrics. Since there are so many metrics, we’ll continue on the fun. Yesterday, the focus was on strikeout and walk rates. Let’s now flip over to batted ball metrics.

We’ll begin with four hitters who inexplicably despise worms. What did a worm ever do to you?!

Josh Bell has oddly been a ground ball hitter his entire career, as he sports a 50.4% career mark. It’s not what you want from a guy who has posted a HR/FB rate above 20% three times and owns a 17.6% career rate. This year, he’s taken his worm-killing to a whole new level, reaching 60% for the first time. There’s not going to be any home run breakout in his new park that boosts left-handed homers if he’s hitting so few fly balls.

Okay, well at least Jean Segura doesn’t possess the power that Bell does. This actually isn’t that much higher than he’s done throughout his career, as he sports a career 55.1% GB%. Sadly, all those grounders aren’t finding holes, as he’s sitting with just a .230 BABIP, after never posting a BABIP below .302 since 2015. He’s also experiencing a power outage, as his ISO is a microscopic .014 (not a typo), thanks to just one double, and zero other extra-base hits.

Top prospect Jordan Walker has performed acceptably at the plate, posting a .318 wOBA so far, but that GB% is not what you want from a guy with 55/80 Game Power and 70/80 Raw Power. He had posted GB% marks in the low-to-mid 40% range at High-A and Double-A, so it’s surprising that he’s struggling to lift the ball in the Majors. He did skip Triple-A and there are a number of other warning signs here, like a tiny 3.8% walk rate and high 16.4% SwStk%. His strikeout rate isn’t even higher only because he has swung at a significantly higher rate of pitches than the league average. If you swing at everything, you’ll both walk and strikeout less frequently. But it’s not exactly a strategy that typically leads to success. I do love the 113.9 maxEV though, but he can’t exactly use all that power hitting so few fly balls.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. posted a 37.4% GB% last year, so this is a dramatic spike. With a 33.3% HR/FB rate, he’s really wasting his power by not hitting as many balls in the air. The strikeout rate is worrisome, as his SwStk% has surged, driving his strikeout rate up to 38.3%, which I discussed yesterday. With four homers and seven steals already though, he’s still helping fantasy owners.

If extreme ground ball hitters hate worms, do extreme fly ball hitters hate birds?

It’s a sad state of affairs in Detroit when Nick Maton, he of the .261 wOBA, has become the regular third baseman against right-handers, bouncing between hitting leadoff (with his .247 OBP) and the middle of the order. Maton has decided that the best way to succeed was to hit everything in the air, as he figures some of them will leave the park, and who cares about hitting singles. That’s how you get a .133 BABIP, but four homers already, despite just an averageish 13.3% HR/FB rate!

Shea Langeliers is trying to score all the Athletics runs all by himself. By golly, they sure need that run production! He’s always been a slight fly ball hitter, but never posted a mark above 46% until now. He wasn’t exactly expected to bolster your batting average, but if he keeps this up, he might be lucky to hit .220.

It’s been an interesting start for Cody Bellinger, whose performance first plummeted in 2020, and hasn’t rebounded since. His strikeout rate is sitting at a career best, which is great, but his HR/FB rate has barely improved and his maxEV still remains below the 110 he consistently posted from 2017-2020. Perhaps to get back some of his missing power, he has gone all fly ball extreme, though he was always a fly ball hitter, but never exceeding 48%. I think the improved strikeout rate is the most encouraging sign here, but I definitely would not say that the good Bellinger of the past is back, as his power still hasn’t really returned.

Want to nearly guarantee a high BABIP? Become a line drive machine!

While Tyler Stephenson hasn’t shown an ounce of power so far this season, he’s hitting line drives like a madman and dropping hits all over the field, en route to a .400 BABIP. He actually sports a career 27.6% LD%, so he’s not stranger to hitting liners, but obviously this would represent a career best. It’s too bad his strikeout rate has increased, he’s yet to hit a homer, and doesn’t steal bases. So he hasn’t been of much use in fantasy leagues, but as a catcher, at least he’s not killing your batting average or OBP.

Now Ian Happ is interesting because he sports a league average LD% over his career and has never posted a mark above 22.5%. Essentially, he’s been completely normal at hitting line drives, so to see a 35.1% mark suddenly this year is a surprise. All of his numbers look real good, but I find it strange that despite a maxEV over 110 MPH and even a rebound to a double digit Barrel%, his HR/FB rate is still suck in the low double digits, at a level that would represent a career low. I think the seeds are there for his home run power to improve in short order.

These hitters haven’t yet figured out how to consistently hit line drives this season.

There’s our friend Nick Maton again, who is truly enjoying a bizarre season. All those fly balls have come at the expense of line drives, which helps explain his .133 BABIP. I would be surprised if he remained a strong side platoon starter by the end of May.

What has happened to Juan Soto?! He has posted a career high strikeout rate, a career high GB%, and has rarely hit a line drive. Oh, and his IFFB% has surged and is now more than double his career rate. At only 24, it’s not like he’s in the decline phase of his career. Perhaps pitchers have successfully adjusted, which has reduced his power, and now screwed up his batted ball distribution, and now it’s time again for him to adjust back. I’d be a bit concerned if I paid a ton for him on draft day.

It’s been quite the bounceback for Max Muncy, as he’s turned his previous liners into more grounders and fly balls. All those flies are being taken full advantage of though, as he sports a crazy 47.8% HR/FB rate! It’s killed his BABIP though, which sits at just .212. Welp, guess fantasy owners are technically getting what they hoped for — lots of power and a low batting average.

There’s Josh Bell again, who’s not only leading baseball in GB%, but also rarely hitting liners. He’s still managed a .270 BABIP though as he hasn’t hit many pop-ups and grounders do fall for hits more often than fly balls, even when the runner is as slow as Bell.