The Story of O’s

Show of hands, please: Who thought, back in February, that we’d be approaching Memorial Day with the Baltimore Orioles in possession of the second-best record in the American League? Uh-huh; not many of you. Now: Who thought instead, three months ago, that the 2016 Orioles would be fortunate to end the season with 75 wins? A few more, and we are among you.

We won’t revisit our thinking, if you can call it that. We will point out, though, that the Orioles will certainly come partway back to earth. First of all, none of the other teams in the AL East are going to be pushovers. More importantly, the Orioles have been somewhat fortunate so far this year, just as they were somewhat unfortunate last year. Their record today is 26-17; their Pythagorean projection (we’ll assume you know what we mean) has them more like 24-19. Conversely, the 2015 Orioles finished 81-81, whereas their Pythagorean projection had them more like 83-79—which, over 43 games, makes for 22 wins. The small difference between the seasons can be fully accounted for by the acquisition of Mark Trumbo and the advent of Kevin Gausman.

We confess to being mistaken about the Orioles not only in bulk but at retail. Sure, we (sort of) touted Joey Rickard before (we think) anyone else, and we’re proud of it (although he certainly has cooled off). But we didn’t envision a bounceback by Chris Tillman. And the guy we absolutely adored on draft day was Pedro (.191/.300/.351) Alvarez. You know how MLB might try to make games shorter by using automatic intentional walks? We propose automatic strikeouts, starting with Pedro. Don’t even bother having him approach home plate.

So our Orioles picks have been wrong. But perhaps our next Orioles pick will be right. In fact, we’re sure it will be: Mike Wright, starting pitcher. His story so far, in telegraphese: right-handed, 26 years old, former good-not-great prospect, 6.04 ERA in 9-start audition last season, 4.97 ERA in 7 starts this season, durable, hard thrower, good stuff, command problems, misses too few bats, owned in 1% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. A compelling addition to your Fantasy squad, correct?

Wright is nonetheless extremely interesting, because he and his surroundings have a virtually pharmaceutical purity if you’re inclined to see them, as we are, as elements of a laboratory experiment. Our regular readers, if there are any, know that we are somewhat unhinged on the subject of 5-inning starting pitchers. In our monologues on the subject, we commence by noting that a fair number of starting pitchers are good for five and only five innings, and turn to pumpkins if they stay around longer than that. We add that, while long-winded starters get scarcer, each year’s harvest of relief pitchers capable of throwing 15 or 20 pitches at 97 MPH every couple of days seems more abundant than the last. We then mention that the success of the Kansas City Royals, who don’t push their starting pitchers and have an unprecedentedly deep and impermeable bullpen, has inspired imitators and will inspire yet more as the tactic proves effective generally. And we opine that managers who want to keep their jobs will have to begin—and will begin–to deploy these redoubtable bullpens preemptively. That is, they won’t wait until the starter gets in trouble in the sixth or seventh inning, but instead will bring in the cavalry at the start of those innings, even if the starter has been pitching effectively and has thrown relatively few pitches. When—not just if—that occurs, starting pitchers who can go only five good innings before detonating will have significantly more value, in both Fantasy Baseball and Reality Baseball.

The Orioles have exactly what they need to effect this strategy. Wright is a 5-inning pitcher to the tip of his cleats. He’s made 7 starts this season. His numbers for the first 5 innings: 35 IP, 31 H, 10 W, 13 ER, 25 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.43 K/9. His numbers as a starter in the innings thereafter: 5 1/3 IP, 11 H, 4 W, 10 ER, 5 K, we can’t even bring ourselves to do the rest of the math.

Baltimore’s of course also got a formidable bullpen to take over where Wright leaves off. Here are the aggregate 2015-2016 stats for the bullpen’s Big 4 of Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton: 315 1/3 IP, 2.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.82 K/9.

So we’ve got a five-inning starter and a bullpen full of reliable hard throwers—two of the three preconditions for our experiment. Do we also have a manager who’s not afraid to yank Wright after he throws five good innings, whatever Wright’s feelings on the subject may be? Not so far, but we have hope. Buck Showalter has let Wright pitch into the 6th in 6 of Wright’s 7 starts, with generally unhappy results. But Showalter’s an attentive manager, and has never been scared to rely on his bullpen, even when that bullpen’s been less formidable than the one he’s got now. So perhaps he’s gotten the message, or will soon get it.