The Starting Pitchers that Baffle the Rankers: Outside the Top 100

Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers ranked inside the top 100 who us rankers most disagreed on. Though it was suggested that a better comparison would be solely between ranks within the position and not overall, I’m not sure that matters since it’s all relative. If one ranker devalues pitchers (Jeff), then all his pitchers will be ranked lower, so it’s moot.

Here is a selection of starting pitchers ranked outside the top 100 who we greatly disagree about.

Over an abbreviated season, Cain posted the worst ERA of his career, endured a second straight season of home run issues and is recovering from surgeries on both his elbow and ankle. Phew. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that we don’t exactly agree on his 2015 value. How many innings will he pitch (I projected 190)? Was he pitching hurt, which contributed to the deteriorating skills? Will he regain those magical HR/FB rate suppressing skills he owned pre-2013? I have never owned Cain in the past, but this year could be my first time.

Earlier in the month, Fiers made my xK% overachiever list. His profile was one that results in a negative knee-jerk reaction. Yet when going through my projection process, it turns out that apparently I actually do like him. And my optimistic ranking bares that out. The ranking disagreement isn’t a surprise. He has never thrown more than 127.2 Major League innings in a season. His fastball fails to average 90 mph. He is a fly ball pitcher with mediocre stuff, yet that stuff has led to an impressive career strikeout rate.

Here I am yet again on an island all by myself. How much of McCarthy’s strikeout rate surge does he sustain? Can he maintain his career high ground ball rate? Can he get his ERA in line with his SIERA and avoid allowing more than one tater per game? He’s seemingly in a fantastic situation, supported by a strong defense and pitching in a home park that suppresses offense. But given his injury history, how many innings will he pitch? I’m curious how much the more pessimistic rankings are due to differing ratio projections or strictly playing time based.

A popular breakout pick, it seems that three of us see that upside, while two of us do not. With an ERA nearly a full run above his SIERA, does he even need to improve his skills to break out, or simply enjoy better fortune? How much will the presence of Russell Martin and his pitch framing ability benefit him? And what about taming lefties, to whom he allowed a .353 wOBA, versus just a .273 mark against right-handers?

Yup, it’s me again, the big optimist. As I asked in my LABR draft recap, is the poor second half weighing heavily on rankers minds? Is the decline in strikeout rate over the full season raising red flags?

Finally, I’m not the most optimistic, but still darn close to it. Kennedy enjoyed a major resurgence coming off the worst season of his career, as his strikeout rate spiked, likely helped in part by a jump in fastball velocity. Does that increased velocity stick? And as a fly ball pitcher, how much will the expected weak outfield defense hurt him? His BABIP was already inflated in 2014 at .315, so it’s hard to imagine it getting any higher than that given his batted ball profile and career .289 mark.

Richards’ breakout season was cut short by a knee injury that required surgery. So the question here is two-fold — how many innings do you expect him to pitch and how much of that significant increase in strikeout rate will he sustain? For a guy who threw in the mid-90s on average, it seemed like it was only a matter of when that strikeout rate would rise. So now that it has happened, it’s easy to believe that it was real. My ranking is primarily driven by just 155 innings projected, as my ERA projection is right between Steamer and the Fan.