The Sophomore Report: Betts, McHugh, Odorizzi

We always read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose was blanketed in smoke and mirrors.

Previous Pieces:
The Sophomore Report Week 1
The Freshman Report
The Prospect Stock Watch

George Springer, OF, Astros: Houston is undoubtedly one of the biggest feel-good stories of 2015 to date and the scary news for the AL West is that the fast start could be sustainable. The team has been getting great pitching but the hitting has yet to truly take off and a number of batters are hitting below .200 — including Springer. Despite those struggles, he’s still having an impact at the plate. He’s still managed to produce a .300+ on-base percentage and eight of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. Once on base, he’s used his solid speed to nab eight bases in nine tries (in only 20 games). Striking out at 33% is definitely going to keep Springer, 25, from hitting for a high average but he should get into the .230-.250 range once he gets hot. [Value Steady]

Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox: A .665 OPS was not what Boston was hoping for from Betts during his sophomore campaign. Unfortunately, like the Red Sox, he’s struggled out of the gates although some of it has to do with a BABIp that’s .100 points below where we might expect it to be. He’s not striking out a ton, he’s taking lots of pitches and walking at a rate of more than 10% — and he’s also showing some pop. Sprinkle in five steals in six attempts and you have the signs for someone who’s eventually going to figure things out and start hitting like he’s capable of as a former top prospect. Plus, you know, he’s only 22.

Collin McHugh, RHP, Astros: While George Springer’s value is currently settled in at “steady,” McHugh’s value is skyrocketing as he works to prove he’s not a one-year wonder. The former 18th round pick who got lost in a sea of pitching prospects with the Mets has been a revelation for the Astros both last year and in 2015. He throws nothing but strikes and has even seen his ground-ball rate climb into the “above-average” range. The right-hander’s fastball usage is way down in 2015 and he’s been relying more heavily on his slider and it will be interesting to see if that reliance is sustainable throughout the year. If the Astros team keeps pitching like it has (and gets a little more hitting), the club is definitely a contender and fantasy managers will be swooping in to snatch up any and all available Astros hurlers.

Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals: Just 23, Martinez is being given his first extended look as a starter after spending much of 2014 in the bullpen (with some spot starts). With the heart-wrenching loss of Adam Wainwright for the season due to an Achilles tear, this young Dominican will asked to shoulder more responsibility as he slides up the pecking order in the Cardinals’ starting rotation. He’s been almost unhittable early on (11 hits in 20 innings) but a sub-.200 opponents’ batting average is not going to be sustainable. He’s struggled with his fastball command at times but he’s seen both his slider and changeup play up in 2015 — which is why he’s striking out more than nine batters per inning.

Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Rays: The 25-year-old Odorizzi had a solid rookie season with the Rays in 2014 but he’s looked even better in ’15. Yes, his strikeout rate is down from 9.32 last year to 6.95 this year but his walk rate is also down a full free pass per nine innings and, perhaps even better, his scary ground-ball rate has improved from 29.9% to 43.2%. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a home run this season thanks to improved command and control — and possibly the increased usage of a cutter with less reliance on his fringy fastball. This former first rounder (of the Brewers) is looking like a stud performer in 2015.