The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 956 – Six Starters to Buy for the 2H

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July 19, 2021

7/19/21

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Approximately 32 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
4 years ago

Offfff course Stripling gets absolutely destroyed the day I recommend him.

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AnonMember since 2025
4 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Was going to post the exact same thing 🙂

Don’t really have anywhere to post this and it is unrelated (especially since it relates to hitters and not pitchers) but I think interesting. Over the AS break, I decided to put together a little chart of the teams sorted by FG projected RA/G the rest of the way to see if any team has an especially easy schedule for their hitters. Obviously these are a bit dated since every team has played a series since then, but here are the rankings split out by division:

Rank NL East RA/G
1 Mets 3.94
7 Marlins 4.37
12 Braves 4.49
14 Phillies 4.55
20 Nationals 4.74
10.8 Average 4.42

Rank NL Central RA/G
4 Brewers 4.18
15 Cardinals 4.55
16 Reds 4.61
22 Cubs 4.75
25 Pirates 4.85
16.4 Average 4.59

Rank NL West RA/G
2 Padres 4.07
3 Dodgers 4.1
5 Giants 4.31
26 Diamondbacks 4.87
30 Rockies 5.38
13.2 Average 4.55

Rank AL East RA/G
8 Rays 4.42
9 Yankees 4.42
13 Red Sox 4.52
17 Blue Jays 4.62
29 Orioles 5.3
15.2 Average 4.66

Rank AL Central RA/G
6 White Sox 4.32
21 Twins 4.74
23 Cleveland 4.76
24 Royals 4.78
27 Tigers 4.99
20.2 Average 4.72

Rank AL West RA/G
10 Athletics 4.45
11 Astros 4.46
18 Angels 4.62
19 Mariners 4.7
28 Rangers 4.99
17.2 Average 4.64

So the team that jumps out at me are the White Sox. They rest of their division is some level of bad in terms of pitching staffs (& the Twins figure to get worse once they deal a bunch of pitchers). But it gets better because a lot of their non-division opponents are pretty bad also, in large part because their interleague this year is against the NL Central which is also pretty bad.

Here is the Sox’s remaining schedule with opponent pitching staff rankings: MIN (21), @MIL (4), @KCR (24), CLE (23), KCR (24), @CHC (22), @MIN (21), NYY (9), OAK (10), @TBR (8), @TOR (17), CHC (22), PIT (25), @KCR (24), @OAK (10), BOS (13), LAA (18), @TEX (28), @DET (27), @CLE (23), CN (16), DET (24)

So that is 22 series left with 13 against bottom 10 teams, 4 against middle 10 teams and 5 against top 10 teams but only 1 of those 5 against top 10 teams is against a top 7 team. Basically they are facing a LOT of bad pitching the last couple months and mediocre-ish pitching the rest of the time.

I’d be targeting White Sox hitters the rest of the way. . . .

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