The Second Half All Star Team: Bats To Buy
It’s the end of All Star week which means it’s time to look ahead to the “second half” of the fantasy. If it feels like a quick half, that’s because most teams only have about 65 games remaining. This is crunch time. Let’s take a peek at some players poised to slay the final two-plus months. I’ll be listing Depth Chart projections.
Remember, it’s unreasonable to acquire every player on this list. If you manage to add even one, you should feel pretty good about competing.
CATCHER
Buster Posey, SFG | .292 AVG, .368 OBP, .433 SLG, 5 HR, 2 SB in 230 PA
With Gary Sanchez waylaid, Posey is the catcher to roster for all-around solid contributions. He’s projected for the most games and plate appearances of any catcher in the second half. Even designated hitters with catcher eligibility like Evan Gattis aren’t projected to top 200 plate appearances. His best categories are rate stats and run production. He won’t offer much fuel to the home run or stolen base fire.
Posey is still very well-regarded. However, his lack of home run fire power could lead to an affordable price tag.
FIRST BASE
Freddie Freeman, ATL | .295 AVG, .395 OBP, .532 SLG, 12 HR, 3 SB in 273 PA
So you know this isn’t blindly by projected offense, I’ve bypassed top-ranked Joey Votto due to modest concerns about his declining quality of contact. Freeman is on the rise and could easily outperform this already delicious projection. The Braves may reinforce their lineup too. I boldly predicted a 190 wRC+ from Freeman this year. While he’ll (predictably) fall short, I still anticipate a huge second half.
This is a buy high recommendation. It’ll cost a mint. Your best bet to buy low is maybe Jose Abreu or Justin Smoak. Or if you need swipes try Wil Myers.
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve, HOU | .314 AVG, .374 OBP, .476, 7 HR, 9 SB in 253 PA
Who else did you expect? Altuve is the author of the most disappointing .332/.394/.470 triple slash in history. Remember, it’s not Altuve’s fault that Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and Alex Bregman reached new heights. Altuve’s power numbers have declined dramatically even as his hard contact has surged. Buying “low” is still going to hurt, but I expect a huge second half. Stolen bases are cool too.
Of course, let’s also recognize Brian Dozier who for two straight seasons has utterly dominated the latter months of the baseball calendar. Can he make it three in a row?
SHORTSTOP
Trea Turner, WAS | .280 AVG, .340 OBP, .435 SLG, 7 HR, 17 SB in 262 PA
Depth Charts says Turner is the sixth best shortstop over the rest of the season, but that’s because stolen bases are worth diddly squat to the Steamer-ZiPS amalgamation. Few players can break the stolen base category without making big sacrifices in other stats. There’s a reason Turner was often selected third overall, and it’ll show in the second half. His plate discipline has actually shown encouraging gains.
THIRD BASE
Jose Ramirez, CLE | .296 AVG, .369 OBP, .526 SLG, 11 HR, 9 SB in 263 PA
This recommendation bores me. Of course you want Ramirez’s dirty five category contribution with a side helping of Alex Bregman. Nolan Arenado paces the home run projections while Kris Bryant seems poised for most improved. He’s only hit 10 home runs, a total he should easily double in less than half a season.
OUTFIELD X3
Mike Trout, LAA | .300 AVG, .436 OBP, .594 SLG, 15 HR, 8 SB in 261 PA
Duh.
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY | .274 AVG, .360 OBP, .601 SLG, 21 HR, 1 SB in 261 PA
He’s projected to lead the league in post-break home runs by a wide margin. That’s meaningful. Of all possible top three outfielders, Stanton carries the most risk and reward.
Mookie Betts, BOS | .308 AVG, .383 OBP, .540 SLG, 11 HR, 10 SB in 254 PA
I’ll take the over on this home run total. I buy his increased fly ball and HR/FB ratio. Additional analysis is deemed unnecessary.
Other outfielders on the short list include J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, Charlie Blackmon, and Andrew Benintendi. If that latter name doesn’t look like it belong, just remember that few hitters can match his balanced five category production.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Soooooo just the best players at every position?
I think the point is that these are players to try and trade for, even at full freight.
Yes.
Should’ve just left it at “second half all star team” without the “bats to buy” bit, because even if you could pry these guys from their current owner, the cost will be prohibitive enough that there’s no value there, so there’s little point in barking up those trees.
Maaaybe you could convince someone to part with Altuve or Turner for a price that wouldn’t leave the rest of your lineup eviscerated.
Only if you’re of the “buy low/sell high” type of mindset.
If I have excess pitching, and you have excess hitting and we each need the other, how is Mike Trout for Kershaw/Scherzer impossible? Some of us play in leagues where trading for needs is a thing that actually happens.
I hear you that nobody needs to be told “acquiring Mike Trout is a good decision!” but, hey, writers gotta write, amirite?
Literally the title of the article. Would you prefer the all stars who are not the best players?
I think I’ll stick with Realmuto over Posey
Reasonable, especially if a few steals can make a difference for you.
You could have just titled this as “Top 3 players at every position in Fantasy Baseball”.
I’d love to see an article where analysis is done on players who have tendencies to start slow in the first half and finish strong in the second half. Players like Dozier, etc.
Last year we saw surges from Bregman, Tanaka, etc. in the second half and while it doesn’t mean they’ll both improve in the second half this year they were both buy low opportunities at this point a year ago and helped improve fantasy teams. I’m wondering who besides Dozier, who is likely already a bit more difficult to acquire with his recent improvement, has that improvement potential for this season.
Curious about the comment on Votto’s declining quality of contact. Yes his FB are down but his LD rate is an insane 33.6%. His hard hit rate is at a career high and his soft rate a career low. Ks and BB are about where they always are for him which is more BB than K. Statcast loves him with a .433 xwOBA. He’s also a notorious 2nd half surger with a 2nd half .426 wOBA for his career vs a 1st half .400
My view on him is skewed by my league which includes OBP, but having had him 3 years in a row now I love him. He will likely have a 30 day stretch at some point where he goes .350/.480/.620 (or better) and just carries my team.
Anyone over there planning a similar post but for second half values?
I mostly just want to see a post about how Danny Duffy and Jesse Winker are going to wreak no-acquisition-cost havoc on the league.
I hate to complain about free content when so much of what the Rotographs staff writes is excellent and useful. But what exactly is the point of this? Are you saying I should want consensus top 10 bats? Because: duh. Aside from Posey, all of these guys were taken in the first two rounds of drafts. You might as well title it “Studs are Studs” and just list the first player off the board at each position.
Votto is always playing the long game. He even said he waits for a certain point in the season to try and elevate and hit home runs. As good as Altuve is, I am not certain he qualifies as a guy you want to pay his first round price for. Power is down, which is understandable as he was never going to be a power hitter even if he played one for a couple years. He also cut back on his running wild on the bases.
lol wtf is this? Oh having mike trout and mookie betts and freddie freeman on my fantasy team would be a good thing? Thank you for that!
I would only consider paying full price for Turner if it’s as a top-50 player and not a top-5. If he’s a true talent 40 SB player instead of a 60+ like Jose Reyes was in his prime then nobody is ever going to win if he’s their best player.
I hate to pile, but this is the least helpful fantasy article I have ever read.
Finally created an account to say:
Wow… really mailed it in today, eh Brad?
Should’ve titled it “Bats to buy, but no one is selling.” Unless teams with the best players in the universe are bottom dwellers, which is still a big if considering a lot of leagues are keeper/dynasty.
Guys, guys, guys, what’s with the complaining? I mean, he admitted it was unreasonable to acquire every player on the list. (I was going to try that, actually, since it seemed like having the best player at every position might be a good strategy.)
Buy Trout & Betts ?
Thanks !!
PS – should I drop Jose Reyes for Trea Turner ? I’m on the fence.
What exactly is declining about Votto’s quality of contact? His career low Soft Contact %? Or his career high Hard Contact %?