The Reds Shortstop Logjam

Say what you will about the Cincinnati Reds, but they have some useful middle infield depth. Veteran Brandon Phillips is under contract for one more season. Since he has full 10-and-5 rights (i.e. a no trade clause), the retooling Reds may have trouble swapping him elsewhere. That’s a shame for their two shortstops – Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez.

Eventually, Cozart is expected to start at short with Suarez sliding to the keystone. Cozart is best known for above average defense. Before a knee injury prematurely ended his season, he was in the midst of a breakout campaign. He hit .258/.310/.459 with nine home runs in 214 plate appearances.

Cozart is an extreme pull hitter. In many ways, he’s not dissimilar to Brian Dozier. Cozart makes more contact than the Twins star, and they both feature consistently low BABIPs. That’s what happens when you have predictable tendencies. Dozier is obviously the more consistent power bat, but Cozart was on an easy 25 home run pace when he was injured.

We sometimes use fly ball distance as a proxy for power. Personally, I find it most informative when comparing to past seasons of the same player. Last season, Cozart averaged 285 feet with his fly balls. He was comparable to players like Brian McCann, Chris Colabello, and Francisco Cervelli. It doesn’t really tell us much by itself. However, in 2014, Cozart averaged just 258 feet per fly ball. His 2013 season averaged 260 feet. Compared to himself, he became a lot more powerful.

His ability to maintain his new power will determine his viability as a fantasy asset in 2016. As far as I can tell, every peripheral besides fly ball distance remained consistent with past seasons. Even his hard and soft hit rates are the same. He hit his hard contact harder. I honestly don’t know if that’s sustainable.

We touched upon the other problem with Cozart – he’s predictable. The book on him is very simple – don’t throw inside. Observe:

His ISO heat map looks very similar.

After Cozart landed on the disabled list, the Reds called upon Suarez. Originally acquired for Alfredo Simon in a theft from the Tigers, Suarez is a bat first shortstop. In about two-third of a season, he gave away about 12 runs on defense. Not good. It’s why he’s widely expected to swing to second base.

Suarez’s glove lags behind his bat. He hit .280/.315/.446 with 13 home runs in 398 plate appearances. He has 20 home run power with shortstop eligibility, and he should continue to post a solid batting average. Regression will eat into his .341 BABIP, but he should make up for it by eventually nudging his strikeout rate below 20 percent (23.6 percent last season).

He has some of the same flaws as Cozart – namely a pull-happy approach. However, he still works up the center of the field more consistently than his teammate, and he made consistently harder contact too. Despite the quality of contact, his average fly ball was just 275 feet.

Both hitters benefit from Great American Band Box. It’s arguably the second most homer friendly park after Coors Field. With Phillips likely to man second base for one more season, Suarez will probably wind up biding his time in the minors. Cozart’s superior defense ensures he’ll get the first shot to start so long as he’s healthy.

Long term, Suarez has the more reliable bat. He reminds me of Jhonny Peralta at the plate. He’s never going to set the world afire, but he should develop into a consistent hitter.

There’s still a lot of offseason for things to change in Cincinnati. Right now, one of their starting quality shortstops is going to be without a job. They could still both wind up as valuable late-draft targets.