The Rangers Bullpen is Going to be Fun
Equal parts infuriating to fantasy baseball players and exciting to forward-thinking baseball fans, this Rangers bullpen has it all. Instead of some boring free agent acquisition to fill the role, or a lucky prospect turned into dominant reliever, the Rangers have turned to a collection of quantity (all with quirks). And quantity is always the best option in the bullpen, where quality usually costs too much money. Deciding which guy saves the most games for the Rangers this year will be tough though.
If you could sort closers into three houses using Pharrell’s sorting hat, you’d probably have three classes. Grizzled Veteran Closer! Hot Young Unproven Prospect! Bounce Back Candidate!
Playing the part of the Grizzled Veteran Closer is Joakim Soria. Obviously, health is a big part of the question here. He had Tommy John surgery in 2003, and again in 2012, and in between he wasn’t the paragon of health either: a rotator cuff strain, some shoulder problems, and a thigh strain show up on his DL history. And his velocity hasn’t been steady:
Zoom out and the velocity isn’t quite as turbulent. He’s averaged 91 mph since we started measuring these things, and last year in a down year, he averaged 90.8. Maybe velocity isn’t so important to Soria’s arsenal — he does throw three pitches semi-regularly.
Or he did. He barely threw the change up at all last year, and it didn’t get a single whiff in ten tries. All ten were predictably thrown to lefties, though, and all ten resulted in ground balls. The good news is that his curve still gets great whiffs for a curve (20+%, average is 11%), and tons of ground balls as well (70+% last year). If he gets his command back (he should), he’ll be able to get whiffs and grounders and only really be a health risk.
Playing the part of the Hot Young Unproven Prospect is Tanner Scheppers. Amazingly, he’s only three years younger than Soria, but he’s got the 96 mph gas of a young man. He’s got good command (2.72 BB/9 career, 7.3%), a curveball that also gets whiffs (15%) and grounders (49%), and his changeup is better than Soria’s. And with a proven sinker, he should probably put up better ground-ball percentages than the veteran. There was some worry about his health (his shoulder in particular) on the way up, but since he’s moved to the pen, he’s been healthy. Just a punch in the face on the street is all that shows up.
And then the Bounce Back Candidate! Neftali Feliz may not feel like a veteran, but he’s been through Tommy John surgery and two different roles on his team, so even at 26 years old, he counts. His change up might be the worst of the three (11% whiffs, 49% ground balls by BrooksBaseball), but his fastball is the best. At 96 with wicked movement, the fastball gets whiffs like a breaking pitch (12.4%) and allows him to succeed against lefties without the changeup.
The best available research on closers suggests that previous experience closing is not actually a great predictor for future saves. Unfortunately, it’s hard to use closer arsenal to predict saves, too — there have been too many fastball/slider closers in the history of baseball to ignore that fact.
Few things have actually been linked to closer changes. Handedness, which doesn’t matter here. Velocity and strikeout rates, which does matter here. But it confounds the issue — Scheppers has the velocity, but not the strikeout rates, Soria the strikeout rates, but not the velocity, and Feliz the best chance for both and also the fewest innings last year.
Spring training might actually matter here. If Feliz is showing his 95+ velocity and striking more guys out than Scheppers, he’ll be the natural fit for the role. But if he’s complaining of aches and showing less sizzle, it’ll be easy for the Rangers to tout their under-the-radar free agent veteran closer acquisition as the real plan all along.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
So as the only significant lefty in the ‘pen, will Neal Cotts get many leveraged opp’s (i.e. holds)? Will he mostly pitch in the 7th and 8th?
Yea, why isn’t Neal Cotts “fun” enough?
No, you guys are right, I could have talked about Frasor and Ross and Cotts — I love that bullpen — but chose to focus on saves. But Cotts is the best lefty and should therefore have the second-most holds on this team. Righties usually get a few more for whatever reason.
Cotts is sitting quite firmly in Wash’s Tree of Trust right now, and he will get hold opportunities as long as he remains effective. He’ll probably get most of his work in the 7th inning, and he’ll work with leads as long as Wash believes in him (that is, until Cotts gives up two dingers in one appearance and doesn’t see game action for a month).
I own Scheppers in a long-term keeper league, but I just don’t see him having a legit shot at the gig here. His K% and BB% got a little better in the second half, but he just still doesn’t seem like a guy that can miss enough bats to close. To me he seems more like a #3-#4 starter, maybe comp’d to Doug Fister.
I think you’re spot on — Feliz has the job to lose in ST, with Soria next in line. Scheppers will get stretched out as a starter, and only be a candidate if both the other two fall apart.
If you look at the fine print in Soria’s contract you will find that he has significant performance bonuses tied into games finished. While logically this should lead to the Rangers trying anyone but him to close games, it probably means that he was signed with some kind of understanding that he would get a shot at closing again after the team let Joe Nathan go. I cant imagine the Rangers alienating a big piece of their bullpen and risking looking bad to future free agents by not giving Soria every opportunity to get the job out of spring training.
Oooooooooo…that’s a little nugget I did not know. I still think they go with the best option to close games, and the best option might be Soria. If he can keep the BB/9 down to anything resembling his Royals self, he’d be tough to supplant.
That being said, ya never know with Wash. Fastballs are sexy.
Feliz of 2010 was excellent, 2011 Feliz had his struggles in the pen highlighted by a very pedestrian 4.3 walks per nine innings as compared to 7.8 strikeouts per 9, and needless to say the final game of the season didn’t go well. 2012’s brief starting experiment again resulted in relatively low strikeouts and relatively high walks, before the injury.
I had also focused on the Soria contract in targeting him in a trade last year and had been convinced during the early part of the off season that the job was his to lose. Recent chatter has me wavering somewhat on that, but if another 6 months of recuperation have restored Soria to what he was between 2007 and 2010 it’s hard to imagine him in any role other than closer. Unlike Feliz who flashed some improvement in winter ball, I haven’t heard a word of what Soria is going to put in his essay about how he spent his winter break so I think this really is one of those situations where spring training and results in April will dictate who holds the job for the rest of the season.
Thats a good point, there was a reason the Rangers gave Nathan that big contract in 2012. Yeah, they wanted to move Feliz to the rotation, but if he was doing what Chapman has been doing in Cincy, they would have never considered moving him.