The N.L. Closer Report: 6/3

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

How dominant has Broxton been this season? Let’s count the ways:

– His FIP checks in at a subatomic 1.27
– His strikeout rate (14.19 K/9) would be pretty good if cut in half
– Broxton’s slider deserves its own “Chuck Norris facts” page: the wicked high-80’s offering has been worth +5.1 runs per 100 pitches.

Yeah, he’s pretty good.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath actually looked mortal this week, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs while blowing a save against the Rockies on May 30th. His K/BB ratio still comes in at 26/6 for the year, with a 1.17 WPA. Interestingly, Bell’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has decreased every season since 2005, from 60.9% that year to just 46.2% in 2009 (49% MLB average). However, his Outside Swing% is also at an all-time high of 30.2% this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Frankie gave up 1 run in 3 innings of work this week, punching out 6 batters in the process but only getting one save. Rodriguez’s fastball (+0.76 runs per 100 pitches), curve (+1.31) and change (+3.89) have all been effective in his first campaign in Queens.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls took some time off this week due to forearm tightness, missing four games. The club isn’t said to be deeply concerned. Qualls notched a save against the Braves on May 28th before the forearm started barking.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman enters “Death Grip” real estate, as he has been better in Milwaukee than just about anyone could have hoped for. With two clean saves this week, the longtime Padre now has a 15-inning scoreless streak going. The wacky .175 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB% just won’t continue, but it’s hard to argue with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. Hoffman’s modest mid-80’s heater (+4.35 runs per 100 pitches), slider (+3.47) and changeup (+6.47) are firing on all cylinders.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

After surrendering a stunning 13 runs in 10 innings from May 5th to the 24th, Lidge is beginning to make amends with five scoreless appearances and five saves since. The Notre Dame product has a 5/1 K/BB ratio during that stretch, and his velocity is trending up (the right-hand portion of the graph is 2009):

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made only one appearance this week, with a save against the Cardinals on June 1st. After issuing 4.86 BB/9 last season, Cincy’s closer has walked 2.86 per nine innings in 2009. Perhaps that has something to do with his pitch selection: after tossing a slider 37.3% of the time in 2008 and featuring his fastball just 52%, Cordero has reduced his slider usage to 21.6% in 2009 with a big bump in heaters (68.4%).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps received just about the best news possible after nearly having his arm torn off by a Geovany Soto line drive: he just had a really nasty bruise. Instead of hitting the DL, the 255 pound right-hander collected 3 saves (one against Houston on May 30th and two against the Mets on June 1st and 2nd). The saves against New York came without a walk, good news considering his prior control issues. Capps has located 53.1% of his pitches within the strike zone. That’s still 4 percent above the league average, but it’s also a far cry from his 59.5% career average.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin worked 3.1 innings this week, with two saves, one walk and a K. Considering that his FIP (3.73) is leaps and bounds above his ERA (1.29), Franklin seems like a good candidate to regress. On the positive side, his 80.7% contact rate is just around the major league average, and is his lowest mark we have on record going back to 2002.

Huston Street, Rockies

Huston had an up-and-down week. He worked a scoreless inning vs. the Dodgers on May 27th, then picked up a save against the Padres on the 29th. Unfortunately, he gave up a run the following night against San Diego, then blew a save against the Astros last night while issuing 2 walks. However, Street has done a nice job for the most part (24/7 K/BB ratio in 22.1 IP), and it’s not as though the Rockies are rife with possible replacements.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson is back on his feet following a nasty run of appearances in the middle of May (7 runs from May 14th to the 21st). He has 4 scoreless innings to his name since then, with 3 saves and zero walks allowed. Opponents have typically chased very few of Wilson’s pitches out of the strike zone (18.7% career), but he got them to offer at 36.8% of such pitches this past week.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins closed the door versus the Bucs on May 31st and the Rockies on June 1st, then tossed another scoreless frame against Colorado the following night. His 2.75 K/BB ratio is his best mark since 2004, and his hard slider/cutter has been worth +3.22 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Hawkins has increased the usage of the pitch, from 19.7% in ’09 to 27.1% this year.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

With 12.52 K/9, Gonzalez is mowing down hitters at the highest rate of his career. He still gives Bobby Cox heartburn some nights, though, with 4.3 BB/9. Soriano, meanwhile, has also used his fastball/slider combo to good effect (12.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9). Per FIP (Soriano 2.14, Gonzo 3.07) and WPA (Soriano 1.69, Gonzalez 0.51), Rafael has been the better option.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom remains on precarious ground, with a ghastly 22/17 K/BB ratio in 21.2 IP. His blistering mid-to-high 90’s fastball was worth +1.08 runs per 100 pitches last year, but that number has dipped all the way to -1.15 in 2009. Lindstrom’s loss of the strike zone is a continuation of a troubling three-year trend:

2007: 2.82 BB/9, 54.0 Zone% (% of pitches in strike zone)
2008: 4.08 BB/9, 51.5 Zone%
2009: 7.06 BB/9, 48.3 Zone%

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Is there a less relevant fantasy position than Nationals closer? It’s sort of like the baseball version of the Indianapolis Colts punter; someone is ostensibly paid to do the job, we just never see him. With a -64 run differential and a 14-36 record, there just aren’t that many chances. The recently activated MacDougal could also work his way into this jumble of relievers, which holds an abysmal -5.67 team WPA (last in the majors).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg was smacked around yet again last night, coughing up 2 runs and blowing a save against the Braves. Like Lindstrom, Gregg just continues to see his control erode:

2006: 2.41 BB/9, 53.1 Zone%
2007: 4.29 BB/9, 50.4 Zone%
2008: 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 Zone%
2009: 5.24 BB/9, 43.7 Zone%