The Maine Attraction

Last season, John Maine started out well: through his first 18 innings, he posted a 3.99 ERA and 93/49 K/BB ratio in 103 innings. Not amazing, but certainly solid, and well within the realm of expectations for Maine.

But then things went south. In his last six starts, he had a 4.83 ERA and 29/18 K/BB ratio in 31 innings. But Maine had a legitimate excuse: he was diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff. The Mets placed him on the DL retroactive to July 29, and although he did return at the end of the season, his velocity was notably down.

In fact, Maine’s velocity was going down even before he was placed on the DL. In his start on July 5, Maine’s fastball averaged 93.58 MPH. It then averaged 91.97 MPH and 92.71 MPH in his next two starts. However, on July 23 his fastball averaged 91.83 MPH and on July 28, it averaged only 90.84 MPH. Maine clearly was pitching through problems – problems that affected his performance and his statistics.

Maine underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his shoulder after the season, and is expected to be fully healthy for spring training. If so, Maine may be underrated this year. Yes, everyone knows that he was hurt last year, but others in your league may not realize that he was pitching hurt for some of the season, making his overall numbers look worse than they otherwise would.

Marcel predicts Maine’s ERA to be 3.96, and this seems reasonable, although somewhat pessimistic. Maine is a fly ball pitcher who will allow his share of homers, but plays in a park that favors fly ball pitchers and has Carlos Beltran patrolling center field. He will get a solid amount of strikeouts (his career K rate is 7.71 per nine) and should get a decent amount of wins, thanks to an above-average offense and (supposedly) improved bullpen. Maine isn’t a fantasy ace, but he could be a solid – and undervalued – member of your pitching staff.