The Immediately Fantasy-Relevant Arismendy Alcantara
Arismendy Alcantara came in fifth on the Cubs’ preseason Top 10 prospects list here at FanGraphs, and was a consensus Top 100 prospect in baseball. His stock only rose further as this season went on, as he put up consistently great numbers in Triple-A. His .307/.353/.537 slash — with ten homers and 21 steals — made it seem like his arrival as a five-category fantasy middle infielder was more a question of ‘when’ than ‘if.’
Since he arrived in the majors just over a week ago, Alcantara has been every bit as good as advertised, hitting .286/.316/.543 with a homer and three steals in 38 plate appearances. His performance thus far should be more than enough to keep him in the major-league lineup; expect either Mike Olt (.142/.226/.361, 38.9% K-rate) or Junior Lake (.219/.246/.385, 34.1% K-rate) to be the odd man out on the 25-man roster when Emilio Bonifacio returns, and Darwin Barney (.230/.265/.328) sure isn’t doing anything to demand his starting job back.
I had the opportunity to see Alcantara play in Triple-A a couple weeks ago, just before he got the call to the majors. I came away highly impressed and intrigued by his five-category fantasy potential. His speed and baserunning instincts are both easy pluses, as he went 52-for-61 in stolen-base attempts between Double-A and Triple-A, an 85.2% success rate (he’s already 3-for-3 in the majors). He has very good pure speed, and he gets to his top gear quickly. When I saw him, he showed off his wheels on a double to the right-center gap on which he was absolutely flying as he rounded first.
I like his hit tool a great deal as well, as his compact swing and excellent bat speed allow him to barrel up just about anything, which explains the surprising pop he showcases for a guy who stands 5’10”, 160 pounds. His isolated power was .180 in Double-A in 2013, and increased to .230 this year in Triple-A (he’s at .257 so far in his brief major-league stint). He also showed very good plate coverage and the ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. For example, check out this opposite-field double he hit earlier this month:
The switch-hitting 22-year-old is nearly the exact same hitter from each side of the plate, erasing any concerns about a need to platoon him either way. In his minor-league career, Alcantara possesses a .297/.353/.452 slash against lefties (.805 OPS) and .281/.332/.443 line against righties (.775 OPS).
The negatives with Alcantara are pretty few and far between, but his aggressive approach is one that stands out. He’s a bit of a free-swinger, which leads to a pretty high whiff rate — his swinging strike percentage was 12.1% between Double-A and Triple-A. His plate discipline stats in Triple-A reflect this weakness, as he posted a 6.8% BB-rate and 22.7% K-rate. Still, his hit tool is good enough that I’m not terribly concerned about his ability to maintain a solid batting average.
When it comes down to it, there isn’t a whole lot that does concern me about Alcantara’s major-league potential, or his fantasy value, for that matter. I suppose he’s been overlooked a bit simply because he’s in the same organization as Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler and now Addison Russell, but make no mistake — Alcantara has a sky-high ceiling in his own right.
For rest-of-season fantasy purposes, he may not rack up the runs or RBI thanks to the fact that he plays for the Cubs, but that should be mitigated a bit if he keeps hitting near the top of the lineup. It’s easy to project another 10-15 steals, paired with 6-8 homers and a solid average. Even in mixed leagues, Alcantara looks the part of a legitimate fantasy middle-infield option.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Having never seen him before, I watched his PAs during his first series after being called up. I knew of his swing-happy reputation, and I was prepared to cringe at his hackitude. I didn’t see it. I saw him lay off of not only balls outside the zone, but also pitcher’s pitch strikes. I so enjoyed his smart, short-to-the-ball approach that I ended up putting him above Odor in my personal fantasy rankings.
I believe it’s his ability to use all the field that makes him most intriguing. He is a little wild at the plate, but that’s being young and aggressive. He may, eventually, give you 2B, SS, OF eligibility. That is a major bonus!
For keeper purposes, any guesses what his ultimate position will be?
Cubs fan here. Between Castro, Baez, Bryant and Russell it’s unlikely Alcantara stays at MI long term. That could obviously change with trades/busts. It’s also very possible he’s used a la Ben Zobrist, albeit without as good of a OBP.
He’ll spend most of his time at CF for us.
I figured Almora was the Cubs’ future centerfielder. Has that changed?
2ABs vs. Reds 7/10 that demonstrates his foul line to foul line ability.
1. Double down left field line.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2014_07_10_chnmlb_cinmlb_1&mode=video&content_id=34462255&tcid=vpp_copy_34462255
2. Triple down right field line
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2014_07_10_chnmlb_cinmlb_1&mode=video&content_id=34463371&tcid=vpp_copy_34463371
Would you drop Aaron Hill for Alcantara in a redraft?
Good question. I own both in a league and am more inclined to drop Hill. Two important factors are (1) whether you need rbi’s out of the position, which Hill is more likely to give you, or a more speed oriented player, and (2) whether upside or safety is more of a priority based on standings.
I did this. Just couldn’t stand Hill anymore. A decent amount of RBIs was his only remotely redeeming quality and I couldn’t take it anymore.
Neil Walker or Alcantara ROS?
Walker will provide more power,walks, and counting stats. Alcantara will provide a slightly higher average and speed. I’d probably take Walker in a vaccum for RoS, but Alcantara after that.
Alcantara can probably be a .285/.345/.440 type. Fantasy wise, I think you are looking at a Jason Kipnis ceiling with a 2013 Daniel Murphy floor?
more steals, less average, runs, RBI than a Dan Murphy type. more like a 2014 BJ Upton floor IMO.
Projecting any major league player to have a .214 average isn’t a good idea.
Cubs fans consistently discount him; a few weeks ago, even media following the Cubs were sure he would go right back down as soon as Barney came back from paternity leave.
Because, you know, he’s the great Barney for crying out loud, you can’t replace a great player like that… not to mention the great Junior Lake at CF…
It all made no sense to me at all; Alcantara has just so much potential, and there is no upside to leaving him in Triple-A. If you want to trade him, showcase him. If you aren’t sure how good he is, bring him up & have a look.
For fantasy players, power-speed & multi-position (in a week or two). Plus, he is on a team going nowhere, a key ingredient for crazy stolen base numbers.
With no platoon splits to exploit, his K% isn’t going to go up much. He may always be like this (~25%K rate) as a consequence of occasionally going for the seats with his swings, but I bet it settles down with experience.
And if it doesn’t, still a good package.
There’s plenty of upside in leaving him down in AAA, such as not starting his service clock before the team can plausibly consider themselves contenders.
The product on the major league field simply doesn’t matter this year, and as such, there’s more to lose by having Alcantara up than there is to gain.
I don’t think the Cubs should be worried about service time at all with him. He doesn’t project as a superstar, and he does seem ready for MLB. If he meets or exceeds expectations they should have the money to keep him as long as they want. This team has cash to burn, and with all of the crazy infield talent they have in the minors, the Cubs need to find out where everyone fits, and trying to do that with everyone at once seems like a potential mess. Besides, you have to think either he or Castro could end up as trade bait, and you’ll fetch a lot more if the player is established at the MLB level.
Drop Aybar for AA in H2H OBP league? I’m leaning toward not doing that because of the Angel’s lineup and their favorable schedule during our league playoffs (they play 14 games against weaker pitching vs CHC 13 a little stronger). Do you agree?
I think I would take the stability of Aybar.
If Baez is also called up, who is better–for this year only? NL only, redraft.
I don’t see a Baez call up at all this year. If he is, I’d still go with AA. Baez has very little experience besides SS and I don’t believe they’d totally move Arismendy off 2nd base this year. Plus, I think he’ll just put up better numbers overall (besides HR potentially).
Scooter Gennett vs AA…..rest of season?
Tough call. I would try and nab both, and bench Scooter against lefties for AA.