The HR/FB Rate Decliners

Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to discuss the hitters whose actual HR/FB rate marks sat significantly below their expected marks. Today, I’ll check in on the hitters whose actual HR/FB rates are significantly higher than their xHR/FB rates. As a reminder, these are the marks unadjusted for home park.

Marwin Gonzalez now has a .358 ISO. WHAT IS GOING ON?! It took him until late July to reach nine homers last year. Obviously, this isn’t real, but even his xHR/FB rate would be a career high.

Similar to Gonzalez, this is clearly not sustainable for Aaron Altherr. But given his short history, this is actually good news as the inflated xHR/FB rate kinda validates the breakout. While neither are for real, Altherr’s performance is far more backed up by skills growth.

I liked Kennys Vargas heading into the year, but I’m not convinced. It’s a tiny sample size, but he’s also stopped walking. As just a DH, he needs to keep hitting to hold a job and I’d be concerned if I were banking on him at all (and I own him in a league myself!).

It surprises me to see George Springer here as without the Brls/BBE metric, it would be easy to believe this was the big power breakout many expected from him. But his Brls/BBE has dropped to its lowest mark since 2015. And since he’s only attempted two steals, both of which he’s been caught, he absolutely needs to hit for big power to break even for his owners. A lack of fly balls is an issue as well. There’s no reason why he should be hitting grounders 50% of the time with his fly ball rate hovering around 30% each season since 2015.

That’s a pretty pathetic Brls/BBE for Ian Desmond, but remember that he calls Coors Field home so his park adjusted xHR/FB rate would be about a percentage or two higher. That’s still nowhere near enough to close the gap, of course. That 1:17 BB:K ratio is disgusting. I think most assumed he’d be even better in Colorado versus last season, but I expected regression from last year which would simply be offset for the most part by the park switch. Given the solid start since returning from injury, I’d probably be selling.

Okay, so Eric Thames hasn’t homered in five games, which seems like an eternity, but before he homered in back-to-back games, he hadn’t gone yard in nine straight games. After his 20th game on April 25th, he was sitting pretty with a 55% HR/FB rate. That was absurd and not sustainable by anyone. Since, he’s posted just an 11.1% HR/FB rate. However, his walk and strikeout rates remained stable and his Hard% remained well above average. While his appearance here is a reminder that there’s still some regression to go, he may actually be an interesting acquisition target. You know, the owner who thinks his window to sell high has just about closed.

I really liked Matt Holliday moving to Yankee Stadium, but I certainly didn’t expect this kind of scorching start! He’s swinging and missing more than ever before, while his fly ball rate is down, which are just two real warning signs. And at age 37, those metrics may not improve. But everything else looks good and he has cemented himself in the middle of a strong Yankees lineup. I’m tempted to advise selling, but I have a feeling he won’t net enough in return to be worth it.

Well lookey here, Gary Sanchez sitting on the HR/FB rate regressers list. He was one of the most fascinating players to follow this year, and it was unfortunate he had to miss several weeks with an injury. This is a relatively tiny sample size though, so it’s not worth concluding much. His severe lack of fly balls, though, is a problem.

I was notoriously bearish on Bryce Harper heading into the season and I’ve looked oh so foolish so far. But wait! His Brls/BBE doesn’t come close to supporting his current HR/FB rate, and while it’s pretty good, it’s nowhere near elite. Furthermore, his speed has disappeared, which is something I warned of. There’s nothing to complain of as a Harper owner, but just be open to the idea that maybe, just maybe, it might be prudent to seek out trade opportunities. You know he’ll net a king’s ransom and with his injury history, the imminent regression in HR/FB rate, and the return to 2015’s level of infrequent running, he may very well finish the season on a pace that would fail to break even for his owners.