The Hot Stove And Fantasy Baseball

It was a busy Tuesday at the Winter Meetings. Starlin Castro and Shelby Miller were traded, Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs, previous signings were officially announced, and other talks progressed closer to the finish line. So, here’s the question, what can the hot stove teach us fantasy baseball aficionados?

I’ll be honest. I settled on this topic as an oblique means to criticize the Miller trade. The Braves dealt Miller and a guy named Gabe Speier for Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, and Dansby Swanson.

Let’s address Speier first. He’s a 20-year-old left-handed reliever who pitched in Low-A. The Braves acquired him a few weeks ago as throw-in for Cameron Maybin. The Tigers acquired him last winter as a throw-in for Rick Porcello. Now the Diamondbacks have also acquired him – as a throw-in. Gabe Speier: Professional Throw-In. Speier’s travels won’t teach us anything about fantasy baseball, they’re just interesting. Or maybe…

Think about why Speier is in this trade. It’s to add balance through diversity. If Miller promptly pops a UCL in March, at least Arizona still has a consolation prize to talk about. In this case it’s a small thing. In a keeper H2H league I won this year, I dealt Byron Buxton* and Andrew Heaney at the trade deadline for Felix Hernandez.

*Keeper costs escalate $7 per season, so Buxton isn’t a 20-year asset

The trade was all about The King, but I didn’t pull the trigger until Hernandez’s owner included Andrew Miller and Trevor Rosenthal as throw-ins. Adding the pair to my existing closers – Luke Gregerson and Brad Boxberger – earned me an easy victory in saves week after week. They also helped my ratios. Hernandez collapsed down the stretch and actually hurt my team. Without those closers, I would have given up great future value for nothing but pain.

The Diamondbacks weren’t trading for Speier even if he might one day be an effective LOOGY. You can pick those in the Rule 5 draft. This was all about Miller. And in the three players the Braves acquired, I see at least two swaps that were more than fair for Miller.

Full disclosure, I’m not on the Miller bandwagon. I’m the guy throwing stones at it. I don’t see the shiny ERA, I see the pockmarked SIERA and xFIP. I see a pitcher leaving the uber-friendly NL East for more challenging starts in the NL West. Sayonara Turner Field (98 HR park factor). Hello Chase Field (108 HR park factor).

Even for those who like Miller, Swanson alone would have been more than full compensation. Similarly, Inciarte and Blair strike me as more than sufficient to cover Miller’s ERA-based production. Clearly, one of the teams involved in the trade was acting with a degree of desperation. They wanted their Christmas stockings stuffed by December 8. There’s always one laughing stock.

And that’s probably true in your league too. There’s (at least) one guy who will jump on bad trades without consulting anyone else. If the Diamondbacks had just let it slip that they were about to trade Swanson plus a couple more good players for a decent pitcher, you can bet their switchboard would have lit up.

Billy Beane and friends say Sonny Gray isn’t available. Did Arizona mention Swanson and more were on the table? Hell, even Matt Harvey might have been in play.

The Braves have developed a good working relationship with the Diamondbacks, and they’ve reaped the benefits repeatedly. They’re repeat reapers. Be the repeat reaper in your league – befriend the owner who doesn’t shop his players. Hold frequent discussions with him or her. You’ll be surprised by what pans out – assuming your leaguemates don’t veto it.

Can you just imagine if major league teams could veto a trade? Arizona GM Dave Stewart would have had a couple slapped down by now.

Moving along to Zobrist and Castro, utility matters in reality and in fantasy. The Cubs used Castro to net a good swingman. Not the return I expected, but it’s fine. Shortly before then, they inked Zobrist – presumably to be their starting second baseman. Zobrist also gives the club corner outfield depth and Javier Baez room to develop.

Zobrist fits very well on the Cubs roster. He’ll probably bat second ahead of their big bats. His contact driven, high OBP approach is a stark contrast to the other Cubs mashers. Adding a Zobrist to the top of the Cubs lineup will increase their run production.

Sequencing is less important in fantasy (unless you’re in a Sim league), but there is something to be said for diversifying the type of player you own. Often, it’s easier to build a team around a flexible asset like Zobrist with his multiple positions and steady but unimpressive five category production. When you have to solve a problem using the waiver wire, more players fit the bill. The Cubs don’t have access to a fantasy waiver wire, but they will experience a similar benefit.

Next up…

Sometimes, your best laid plans implode. Usually, the injury bug is to blame. Sometimes, your player keeps playing but suddenly turns into nothing (usually, those are injuries too). And sometimes, your player is “allegedly involved in a domestic dispute.”

This is a new frontier for major league baseball. I recall an incident involving Brett Myers while the Phillies were visiting Boston. It kind of just went away. That’s not going to happen for Aroldis Chapman, Jose Reyes, or Yasiel Puig. Baseball has the opportunity to set a strong precedent. If investigations prove that Chapman, Puig, and Reyes committed domestic abuse, how long will they be suspended?

PED users are suspended 80 games for their first offense. Because PEDs influence the outcome of games AND tarnish the MLB brand, they come with a harsh penalty. From a purely utilitarian viewpoint, domestic abuse doesn’t affect games, but it’s arguably more tarnishing to the MLB brand – at least it will be if it’s largely ignored as it is by the NFL. However, if baseball sets a precedent of a 100 game suspension for first time offenders (or better yet, a full season), they could actually shift these awful situations into a public relations victory for the league.

I own Puig in a couple keeper leagues, one of which allows offseason trading. I’m faced with a tough decision – should I try to sell low? It’s now a compounded low with his rough 2015 added to new uncertainty about his availability. As the Dodgers did with Chapman, I caution would-be buyers to back away until more information is known. However, there could be some advantage to inquiring now in dynasty formats – especially if the valuation let’s you look past 2016.