The Freshmen Report: Bryant, Pederson, Pompey
The freshmen season is in full swing around Major League Baseball and numerous rookies are making their presences known. At the same time, others are stumbling and already receiving tickets for the first bus out of town back to the minors.
Other Pieces: The Freshmen Report: April 23
Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs: Everyone except, perhaps, Mike Olt and his family knew his stranglehold on the third base job in Chicago would be futile. Bryant received the much-anticipated call to The Show in late-ish April and his reputation has certainly preceded him. Pitchers are already afraid of him; they’ve been extremely cautious while h’s been extremely patient — not trying to do too much — as witnessed by his 19% walk rate. He has yet to hit a home run in the Majors but he’s shown everyone why I pushed for him to be the first overall pick in the 2012 amateur draft. He’s a threat to hit 20+ home runs this season and 30+ annually despite his slow start to the power game.
Joc Pederson, CF, Dodgers: I wasn’t as quick to warm up to Pederson as a prospect but I jumped on the bandwagon about a year ago once he improved his platoon splits. He clearly no longer looks like a future platoon-mate and, instead, he looks like a threat to develop into a 30-30 (HR-SB) threat despite his lack of base running early on in 2015. The Dodgers have done a nice job of clearing out the outfield depth for the rookie and he’s rewarded them by slashing .292/.447/.646 in 23 games. The one warning sign to his game is the 30% strikeout rate, but he’s offset that with a walk rate of more than 20% and the power (.354 ISO) to warrant the whiffs.
Dalton Pompey, CF, Blue Jays: The 2015 season hasn’t been all roses and lollipops for the rookie class. Canadian-born outfielder Pompey won the starting center field gig in spring training but he got off to a slow start to the year and a return to health from fellow Canadian outfielder Michael Saunders sealed his fate. The good news is that Pompey shouldn’t be in Triple-A for too long. The Kevin Pillar bubble will burst once people realize he only walks once a month and that his defense in centre field won’t be anywhere as good as left (Pompey is by far the superior outfielder but makes things look easy). The rookie had some bad luck on balls in play (He hit some hard balls that ended up in gloves) and the switch-hitter’s swing was messed up from the right side (He was swinging around the ball). Look for him to return a better man.
Miguel Castro, RHP, Blue Jays: Another Jay on the list, Castro bested Pompey by getting off to a quick start but the lack of a reliable breaking ball and so-so control has gotten the best of the rookie now that the scouting report has had time to filter around the American League. It was always a bad idea to promote two very inexperienced hurlers essentially from short-season ball and Castro probably isn’t long for the Majors. That means the Jays will start to burn his minor league options (He has three) two years before they had to.
Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, Reds: Another Blue-Jay-inspired player, DeSclafani was a sixth-round selection of the Jays in the 2011 draft after spending much of his college career in the bullpen. He’s been a revelation as a starter in pro ball and the Marlins stole him as an after-thought to the big deal with Toronto that sent Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle north of the border. Later traded to the Reds, DeSclafani secured a gig in the starting rotation in 2015 and hasn’t looked back. He’s allowed as many walks as hits (11) in 31.0 innings. He looks like a solid No. 3/4 starter at the big league level and the durability has been a plus.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
And another Blue Jay inspired player could have been tacked on to former 2010 18th round selection Kris Bryant, who obviously didn’t sign.
Just got offered Stras for Pederson in my 12-team points league (no keepers). Should I bite? (I’m in first place, fwiw) I do have an excess of outfielders, but Pederson has been my top position player.
Hell yes.
hell no
Look at the projections for Pederson, he’s expected to crash at some point and be pretty ordinary, whereas Strasburg (whom I assume you are referring to) is a top line starter. Ordinarily, should be a gimme, take it, take it now! Potentially a huge steal on your part.
However, some players keep up the hot hitting for a while until somebody figures out how to get him out. So there is the risk that he’s the next Goldschmidt who just continues to defy expectations and keep on hitting.
So the question becomes, is Strasburg and your excesss OF better than if Pederson continues hitting close to this (gotta fall off some, however, right?!?)? Unless you have a super rotation already, seems like picking up Strasburg is a sell high situation that should work for you, especially if the replacement OF is good enough.
Plus, how is your SP? You mention you are in first, but could you stand an upgrade in your rotation with Strasburg?
Lastly, Pederson is mentioned as a speed person, so you risk losing SB if you trade him. Are you OK in that category or could you use a potential plus that Joc could provide? Small factor, but something to consider too.
However, the article didn’t touch on this at all, but Pederson is sky high right now. Projections say that his numbers will probably sky dive at some point, possibly soon. I would take the deal knowing that most probably Pederson isn’t the next Barry Bonds (and since it is not a keeper league, it won’t haunt you if he is), plus even if he is, Strasburg is a pretty valuable pitcher as well, and you will still get the production from the other OF.
I think maybe you mean DeSclafani’s allowed as many runs as walks? He’s allowed 18 hits this year.
It seems to have been a very good idea to promote one of the “two very inexperienced hurlers essentially from short season ball.” Roberto Osuna has been extremely effective and I see no indication (albeit small sample size) that he is in need of additional minor league tutelage.
I agree Castro seems likely to spend time in the minors this year. But his stuff is extremely impressive and I have no doubt he will be a keeper (assuming you obtained him for a buck or two).
Roberto Osuna, Miguel Castro, and Arquimedes Caminero are very interesting rookie relievers.