The Final Daily Grind of 2016

Agenda

1. Thank You!
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Thank You!

Do I need to spell it out? Ok. Sure. Let’s spell.

I’d like to thank everyone who contributed to the column, participated in TDG Invitationals, and helped fill the contests by badgering people on Twitter. And of course, I’d especially like to thank the readers without whom it wouldn’t be possible to write about fantasy baseball professionally. I appreciate your support.

This is probably the last time TDG will appear in this exact format. I’ve been feeling the itch to take a new angle for months now, but I’ve had my head down grinding out the remainder of the season. With the offseason on its way, I’ll brainstorm up some new ways to deliver DFS and/or streaming analysis for next season. We’ll talk about it at least once over the winter.

Speaking of the winter, I’ll be back on a daily basis to cover my usual assortment of in-depth player analysis, strategy, tactics, ottoneu, and dynasty topics. Right after I take a short hiatus to recharge the ol’ fuel cells. If you’re the type to vanish into the maw of fantasy football/basketball/hockey until MLB draft season, I’ll see you next spring. Also, shame on your for abandoning the best sport.

For those of you who will stick with us through the cold months, keep an eye out for my Experimental Leagues.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Maddmaxxx led from start to finish in the final contest of the season. His four player Tigers stack supplied 83 points. The leaderboard is now final. Congratulations to johnnyboy1852005 for posting the highest win total on DraftKings. Jschweitzer was our top competitor on FanDuel. I look forward to playing with you all again next season!

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Seven games are early, but only the five starting after 4:00pm ET are available on FanDuel. All seven can be played on DraftKings. Clayton Kershaw is tempting, but he’ll be making a tune-up outing. I wouldn’t count on getting much bang for your buck. The same can be said of Jon Lester at Cincinnati or Tanner Roark hosting the Marlins. Roark is the most likely of the trio to be unconstrained. Then again, a constrained Kershaw could still post the highest point total of the slate.

The Mets can clinch a Wild Card berth today behind Bartolo Colon. Look for them to pull out all the stops. That could entail riding Colon deep into the outing, but it probably means seeing a lot of relievers.

As warty as the top names are, the rest of the field is hauntingly bad. Trevor Bauer is the obvious next best with Chad Kuhl representing the only other option I’d consider using. You’re aiming for meager quality starts from both hurlers. Upside will be limited.

Stack Targets: Phil Klein, Albert Suarez, Edinson Volquez, Luis Severino, Tim Adleman, Wei-Yin Chen, Michael Wacha, Wade Miley

Late: The eight game evening slate lacks for an ace. J.A. Happ is the top name, but he’s opposed by the Red Sox juggernaut at a wet ballpark. Nah. I’d be tempted to try Eduardo Rodriguez (I even recommended doing so yesterday), but the rain forecast may ensure a short outing.

Beyond Happ, names like Hisashi Iwakuma, Collin McHugh, and Jake Odorizzi carry the most potential. The Mariners are just one game back of the Blue Jays for the second Wild Card slot (the Tigers are half a game back). They need a big outing from Iwakuma. Like with Bartolo, that could mean a long outing if he’s rolling or a short appearance if they need to control the damage.

For the first time since April, I’m leaning towards McHugh. The righty will face a very beatable Angels lineup. Albert Pujols is out for the year so they’re down to just Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun. I’m not thrilled about Odorizzi’s matchup against the Rangers, especially because it’s at The Glob. Odorizzi is capable of spin the occasional gem, and it’s not like the Rangers are fighting for their lives.

Speaking of Rangers, Colby Lewis is my preferred bargain, in part because most bargain hunters will be using Jharel Cotton. Lewis hasn’t been particularly good since returning from injury. He’s allowed five home runs in just 12 innings. As for Cotton, I have no objections to trying him against the Mariners. I’d like for him to parlay his high whiff rate into more strikeouts. Like most new pitchers, he needs to learn how to better leverage his repertoire. So far, he hasn’t been burned.

Stack Targets: Aaron Blair, Jeff Hoffman, Archie Bradley, Clayton Richard, Wily Peralta, James Shields, Hector Santiago, Tyler Skaggs, Jordan Zimmermann

4. SaberSim Observations

Kershaw, Wacha, Lester, Skaggs, and Bradley top the charts. I’m not sure SaberSim and I have ever disagreed more than today. Three of the top five are on my exploit lists. Wacha has looked pretty bad lately as has Skaggs. I’m going to categorize them as burned out and/or banged up. Bradley has a big gap between his floor and ceiling. Lefties have murdered him this season, and what do ya know, the Padres are loaded on lefties.

Today’s stacks are very focused per SaberSim. The Coors game, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Nationals are the top options.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: If you’ve left things to the last day, well, you probably shouldn’t have. I’ve helpfully disaggregated the easy starts from the pure desperation plays. You’ll notice there’s some overlap between “desperate” and “to exploit.”

Of the highest priority names, Sean Manaea has the best combination of projected outcome and actual availability on the waiver wire. Manaea is going to get some love over the offseason. He entered the season as one of the top minor league pitching prospects only to quickly fall off the radar. That’s what happens to A’s who don’t hit the ground running. In the second half, he’s posted a 2.40 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 8.01 K/9 and 1.83 BB/9. Manaea is opposed by King Felix and the M’s.

Also consider: Kevin Gausman, Jerad Eickhoff, Matt Moore, Julio Teheran

Desperation starts: Martin Perez, Luis Cessa, Jered Weaver, Chase Whitley, Tom Koehler, Josh Tomlin, Ian Kennedy

Pitchers to Exploit: The Twins continue to try Jose Berrios, mainly because they need somebody to start. Besides, Berrios was completely unchallenged in the minors. The highly regarded righty almost always works five or fewer innings. Once Berrios is done allowing runs, the White Sox can pick on Minnesota’s crappy bullpen.

Also consider: Jered Weaver, Chase Whitley, Martin Perez, Robert Stephenson, Jimmy Nelson, German Marquez, Paul Clemens, Matt Koch, Ryan Vogelsong

Hitters (power): A note about hitters on the last day of the season – teams start the scrub lords and the good players tend to find the bench after five innings. In other words, I’m saying I can’t really help you predict who will actually play.

That said, if you really need home runs, Pedro Alvarez seems like the obvious play at Yankee Stadium. Unless you’d rather use his right-handed clone, Chris Carter, at Coors Field. In terms of best average performance, I’d go with the Melk Man. Kendrys Morales is also crazy hot and facing a homer prone pitcher.

Also consider: Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-soo Kim, Carlos Gomez, Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, Melky Cabrera, Franklin Gutierrez, Chris Coghlan, Domingo Santana, Chris Carter, Kendrys Morales

Hitters (speed): I don’t really believe Noah Syndergaard will pitch tomorrow. If he does, the Phillies stack of Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Odubel Herrera, and Aaron Altherr are all multi-steal threats. Thor is the worst at allowing stolen bases by a factor of 10 (hyperbole).

Also consider: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Leonys Martin, Cameron Maybin, Jose Peraza

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Five venues are looking damp today. Boston is once again a postponement risk.

The Link.

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