The Early Surprises: Hitters

I am working on a deeper dive into Eric Thames, but he left Wednesday’s game with an apparent injury so I wanted to table it just to see where he’s at because it dive into his value on the trade market and what you should hold out for if you’re looking to sell him. With that said, he won’t be included here. I’ve got five other hot hitters both young and old who are doing big things thus far. Let’s examine what – if anything – is different and then I’ll let you know if I think it’s sustainable and to what level.

Chase Headley | New York Yankees | .339/.431/.565 with 3 HR, 3 SB, 7 RBI, and 14 R in 72 PA

• Riding career-best strikeout (18%) and walk rates (14%)
• The walk rate is the bigger improvement from career (22% K, 10% BB)
• Getting and staying ahead: 46% first-pitch strike rate (F-Strike) & 17% O-Swing are career-bests
• Last year he had 59% F-Strike and 28% O-Swing rates
• Not hitting the ball any harder as his 25% Hard contact rate is a six-year low
• Meanwhile, his 20% Soft contact rate is a career-high
• Looking healthy with 3 SB which could yield first double-digit total since 2012

OUTLOOK: Headley’s fast start fueled by extreme patience, which seems unlikely to completely hold up for a 33-year old with 5115 PA under his belt coming into this year. If he maintains some of the gains, it will bring AVG and OBP gains over previous seasons, but I don’t see a big jump coming for the sub-.400 SLG he’s had the last three seasons. Looking at a .270 AVG/16 HR/11 SB bottom line.

Steven Souza Jr. | Tampa Bay Rays | .349/.426/.590 with 4 HR, 0 SB, 17 RBI, and 14 R in 95 PA

• Made a deep cut into his massive strikeout rate down from career 34% to a passable 25%
• There’s been a noticeable swinging strike rate (SwStr%) dip, too, from 15% to 12%
• Patience has been key with a major drop in F-Strike% to 54% (career 67%!)
• His 69% F-Strike% was not nice last year, it was 2nd-worst to Yasmany Tomas (71%)
• Finally not missing fastballs: .965 OPS and 23% K in 43 PA; doing damage in all counts, too
• Painful .669 OPS, 33% K v. fastballs in 2015-16; .302 OPS, 58% K in pitcher counts
• 0 SB, but 19-for-31 career mark curbs excitement generated by 30 SB per 600 PA in minors

OUTLOOK: The league adjustment to Souza will likely be fewer fastballs at some point and/or more first-pitch strikes, but he’s a career .950 OPS on 0-0 & 0-1 counts combined (317 PA) and has an .812 OPS against off-speed stuff, too. The real hurdle is staying healthy (230 games played the last two seasons), but if so I think can hold the lower strikeout rate and set some new power highs. He’s always had a power-friendly batted ball profile anyway and a true dream season could net 30 homers. Looking at a .275 AVG/25 HR/7 SB bottom line.

Eugenio Suarez | Cincinnati Reds | .352/.432/.676 with 5 HR, 1 SB, 12 RBI, 18 R in 81 PA

• Quietly posted a 21 HR/11 SB season last year with a .248 AVG being the only real wart
• He popped 5 HR last April, too
• Comparing Aprils, he’s swinging less (45% to 41%) and chasing a lot less (28% to 19%)
• Last year it was fastball destruction: 1.157 OPS with all 5 HR
• This year it’s all pitches: 1.069 OPS, 2 HR v. hard stuff; 1.229 OPS, 3 HR v. soft stuff
• Major K% (25% to 16%) and BB% (8% to 12%) changes, too
• Flyballs are down substantially (38% to 31%) so he needs every bit of his 28% HR/FB
• High .377 BABIP, but more line drives, hard contact, and an all-fields approach say it’s not just luck
• Four infield hits after 8 all of last year say there is at least some good fortune, though

OUTLOOK: A 25-year old coming off a solid first full season last year should garner attention. The fast start will obviously subside, but there are factors throughout his profile that suggest player evolution is at least partly to explain for the blazing hot numbers thus far. The rest of season projections are about the same as the preseason ones meaning his first three weeks were essentially “free”. I tend to agree, save a boost in the batting average. Looking at a .280 AVG/23 HR/10 SB bottom line.

Ryan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals | .371/.429/.771 with 7 HR, 1 SB, 18 RBI, and 14 R in 77 PA

• “The key to Zimmerman’s hot start is not a consciously altered launch angle” (Chelsea Janes piece)
• That was back on April 10th, though
• Hard not to think he’s focused on getting the ball in the air more
• Lot of talk about how he mashed the ball last year, but didn’t get results
• Strong 35% Hard contact rate didn’t do much good with a 49% groundball rate (GB%)
• Up to 39% on the Hard contact, but has shaved the GB% down to 37%
• At 32, he’s not as ancient as many probably assumed before reading he was 32
• Health is and will continue to be the driving factor in Zimm’s success or failure
• Five DL stints in the last three years and at least one in each of the last six seasons
• The injury history is probably why some think he’s older than 32

OUTLOOK: I’m going to bet on this profile because the skills are there and I just need health. “Just need” probably understates it given how often he’s been hurt, but the low investment cost whether I drafted him, picked him up, or entertained trading for him makes it easy to gamble on the upside. I’m capping that upside at 140 games, but he can do a lot of damage in the remaining 120 if he isn’t hobbling through half of them. Looking at a .280 AVG/26 HR/3 SB bottom line.

Avisail Garcia | Chicago White Sox | .373/.420/.600 with 4 HR, 0 SB, 17 RBI, and 13 R in 81 PA

• Hasn’t shown major skill changes (22% K& is slightly better, but 17% SwStr% is flat)
• That SwStr% is 4th-highest in the league
• 7% BB rate is actually down from last year’s 8%
• Pitchers are getting ahead even more often w/73% F-Strike% (5th-highest)
• Still chasing too much with 39% O-Swing slotting 22nd in league and equal to 2016 (13th-worst)
• Getting more flyballs, but still only 28%
• Pulling the ball a lot more at a career-high 44%
• Riding a .471 BABIP & career-best 20% HR/FB

OUTLOOK: It seems like Garcia is simply on a hot streak. There are no discernible skill improvements or approach changes behind the run. He might be selling out for more power a bit with the Pull rate, but that’s about all you can hang onto as a change. Looking at a .255 AVG/16 HR/5 SB bottom line. That means he’d hit about .235 the rest of the way if he puts up 550 at-bats. Sell… for anything.